1:55 Warwick
This Class 4 novices' handicap steeplechase at Warwick over three miles on good to firm ground features a compact field of just three runners. The KTB Fit Scores suggest a clear order of merit, headed by Kiwi de Cotte on 69, with In The Trenches on 52 and Passengerontheship on 46. While all three are rated smart performers on recent evidence, the race poses several unknowns around stamina, ground and lack of course experience.
How the race shapes up
With only three runners and the pace shape rated unclear due to limited run-style evidence, it is difficult to be confident how the race will unfold. Both In The Trenches and Passengerontheship are usually held up and tend to produce their effort late, which could leave the race lacking early pace. The key question is whether the leaders can set a strong enough gallop to expose any stamina limitations as they step up to an untested or returning 3m trip.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Kiwi de Cotte KTB Selection69/100
Kiwi de Cotte is a smart performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins from his last four starts. He is dropping in class and steps up to an untested 3m today which asks a fresh question of his stamina. The Dan Skelton yard boasts a 21% strike rate at Warwick from a large sample, while Harry Skelton is 23% at the track. Connections hold a 22% strike rate together overall. He has no experience of good to firm ground and no course form on record.
-
2In The Trenches52/100
In The Trenches is a smart performer who has been in and out lately but showed strong form when winning over shorter earlier this season. He steps up to an untried 3m trip for the first time which asks a fresh question of him, and first-time headgear is now applied. Usually held up, he produces his effort late. The Jennie Candlish stable has a 9% strike rate at Warwick from 105 runs, while Sean Quinlan is 7% at the track. He has been placed on good to firm but holds no course form.
-
3Passengerontheship46/100
Passengerontheship is a smart performer who has won five of his last seven starts and brings strong ratings into this. He steps up to 3m having already won at the trip and the recent form reads well enough. Usually held up, he produces his effort late. He is dropping in class but remains unproven on good to firm ground. The Sam England yard is 0-7 at Warwick and the jockey is also 0-10 at the track.
KTB verdict
Kiwi de Cotte is the KTB Selection. He arrives with the strongest recent record of the trio, including two wins from his last four starts, and represents a yard that operates at a 21% strike rate at Warwick. While the step up to an untested 3m poses a question, his overall profile and the Skelton team's local record give him the edge. In The Trenches and Passengerontheship are the main dangers, both smart performers in their own right who bring winning form and could capitalise if the trip or ground finds out the selection.
KTB Selection Kiwi de Cotte
This is the narrative read of the 1:55 Warwick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Warwick racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Warwick results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won the most times in its last seven starts?
Passengerontheship has won five of his last seven starts.
What is Dan Skelton's strike rate at Warwick?
Dan Skelton has a 21% strike rate at Warwick from 697 runs.
Which runners are unproven on good to firm ground?
Kiwi de Cotte and Passengerontheship have no runs on good to firm.
Who is applying first-time headgear in this race?
In The Trenches is fitted with first-time headgear.
How many of these runners have won at 3m before?
Passengerontheship has already won at the trip.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies