2:20 Perth
This Class 3 novices' limited handicap steeplechase at Perth over 2m4f20y on good ground features a small but select field of just two runners. Both horses arrive in strong form and carry high-class credentials for the level, with the KTB Fit Scores underlining a clear edge to the top-rated contender while the second horse remains a live danger on its progressive profile. The race lacks depth but carries notable quality for a novices' event, and the KTB numbers point to a straightforward but competitive clash between two promising chasers.
How the race shapes up
With only two runners and limited run-style data available, the pace shape is unclear and confidence in predicting how the race will unfold is low. Both Dunkerque and Follow Your Luck are typically held-up performers who produce their efforts late, suggesting the race may develop into a tactical affair with neither keen to make the running. The key question is whether the race will be truly run or become a sprint from the last, in which case the horse with the sharper turn of foot late on could hold the advantage.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Dunkerque KTB Selection66/100
Dunkerque is a high-class performer with a strong recent record, boasting five wins from his last six starts. He drops back to a trip over which he has already won twice and shows a clear preference for good ground, on which he has five wins from eight runs. The trainer has a 13% strike rate at Perth with an A/E of 0.82 from 104 runs, while the jockey posts a 7% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.65 from 322 rides; both are modest but established figures over decent sample sizes. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he arrives in excellent order having posted recent form figures of -11121. This looks to be his ideal conditions and he holds a clear advantage on KTB ratings.
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2Follow Your Luck51/100
Follow Your Luck is a high-class performer on just three starts and is already a dual winner at today's trip. He looked smart when landing a novice event last year before a solid third here on his return, with recent form figures reading 1/11-3. The trainer has a 16% strike rate at Perth with an A/E of 1.01 from 89 runs, and the jockey has a 15% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.89 from 891 rides, both solid figures. He has only had one run on good ground without placing and has one previous run at the course when finishing third without winning or placing. Usually held up and producing his effort late with medium confidence in that assessment, a slight question remains over the small sample on this ground but he remains a smart prospect.
KTB verdict
Dunkerque stands out as the KTB Selection. He brings a high-class profile backed by five wins from his last six starts, a proven record at the trip and a clear preference for the prevailing good ground. His held-up style should suit if the race develops into a test of speed from the back of the pack. Follow Your Luck is the only danger, a high-class prospect in his own right with two wins at the distance and a solid third on this track, though the small sample on good ground leaves a minor query. Between the pair, the edge lies firmly with the selection on the supplied KTB Fit ratings and overall profile.
KTB Selection Dunkerque
This is the narrative read of the 2:20 Perth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Perth racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Perth results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the stronger recent winning record?
Dunkerque, with five wins from his last six starts compared to Follow Your Luck's two novice wins from three starts.
How do the trainers compare at Perth?
Jennie Candlish has a 13% strike rate at Perth with an A/E of 0.82 from 104 runs, while Patrick Neville has a 16% strike rate with an A/E of 1.01 from 89 runs.
What are the respective records of the jockeys at Perth?
Sean Quinlan has a 7% strike rate at Perth with an A/E of 0.65 from 322 rides, while Brian Hughes has a 15% strike rate with an A/E of 0.89 from 891 rides.
Which horse has the better record on good ground?
Dunkerque has five wins from eight starts on good ground, while Follow Your Luck has had one run on good without a win or place.
What is the run-style for both horses?
Both Dunkerque and Follow Your Luck are usually held up and produce their effort late.
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