3:15 Sedgefield
This Class 4 Go North Monet's Garden Series Qualifier over 2m5f at Sedgefield features a small but select field of four where the KTB Fit ratings identify three principals with scores between 59 and 69. The race is run on good ground and the numbers highlight strong course records for a couple of the principals along with trainer and jockey combinations that know the venue well. Overall the KTB assessments point to a contest in which proven ability around Sedgefield and a favourable run style could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is that of a lone leader with medium confidence, suggesting one horse will be allowed an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for those coming from off the pace to reel in. Tanking Along is a confirmed front-runner who tends to make the running or race prominently with high confidence, so he is ideally placed to dictate terms. The other three are all held-up types who will be looking to produce their efforts late, raising the key question of whether any of them can close the gap on a clear leader on this sharp track.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Tanking Along KTB Selection69/100
Tanking Along is a smart performer who has already won twice at Sedgefield from four runs and arrives in solid form with two seconds from his last three starts. Patrick Neville has a strong 23% strike rate here from 53 runs while Brian Hughes is an obvious plus in the saddle, their combined record reading 28/106 (26%) with an A/E of 1.31 and +£23.40 LSP. He steps up in trip today for the first time which remains an unknown, though his going record on good ground reads a win and two places from seven starts. As a front-runner with high confidence in that style he is perfectly set up by the lone-leader pace shape and his course record of two wins from four starts adds further appeal. The seven-year-old has the highest KTB Fit rating of 69 and looks to hold all the aces on these terms.
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2Passengerontheship66/100
Passengerontheship is a smart performer with a strong recent record of three wins from his last six starts. He drops back from 3m to a trip he has won over before while his record on good ground reads well with five wins from nine starts and seven places overall. Only seventh when he tried this track once before though and that leaves his course effectiveness open to question despite the 18% strike rate of trainer Sam England at Sedgefield from 238 runs and the 17% strike rate of jockey Jonathan England from 258 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late with medium confidence, he will need the leader to come back to him if the uncontested lead materialises. With a KTB Fit of 66 he is the closest rival on the numbers and his recent winning form cannot be ignored.
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3Thank You Blue59/100
Thank You Blue is a smart performer who knows this track well having won three times from seven runs here. Consistent of late with five placed efforts from his last six starts yet he drops back from a longer trip today where he has failed to win in four previous attempts at this distance. Trainer Jennie Candlish has a solid 17% strike rate at Sedgefield from 285 runs while the jockey also rides the track regularly, though I. J. Power has a 0% strike rate from seven rides here with an A/E of 0. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will be another looking to close late against the likely clear leader. His KTB Fit of 59 still marks him down as a principal player on a track where three wins from seven starts count for plenty.
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4Four Decades50/100
Four Decades is a fair performer who has been below form on his last three starts and now steps up in trip for the first time. Trainer Tom Ellis has a strong 40% strike rate at Sedgefield from ten runs with an A/E of 1.43, but the horse has never placed on good ground in five attempts and holds a KTB Fit of 50.
KTB verdict
Tanking Along stands out as the KTB Selection. He has already won twice at Sedgefield, arrives in solid recent form, and his front-running style is ideally suited to the projected lone-leader pace shape which may give him an uncontested advantage. The step up in trip is the main unknown but his course record and the Neville-Hughes combination with its positive A/E figures make him hard to oppose. Passengerontheship and Thank You Blue are the main dangers, the former boasting strong recent winning form and a good going record while the latter knows the track inside out with three course victories to his name.
KTB Selection Tanking Along
This is the narrative read of the 3:15 Sedgefield. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Sedgefield racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Sedgefield results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to take the uncontested lead?
Tanking Along, who tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence and fits the lone-leader pace shape.
How many course wins does Thank You Blue have at Sedgefield?
Three wins from seven runs at the track.
What is Patrick Neville's strike rate at Sedgefield?
23% strike rate at Sedgefield from 53 runs with an A/E of 1.26.
Has Passengerontheship won over this trip before?
Yes, he drops back from 3m to a trip he has won over before.
What is Tom Ellis's strike rate at Sedgefield with Four Decades stepping up in class?
40% strike rate at Sedgefield from ten runs with an A/E of 1.43.
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