Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−5.1
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −17.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−5.1
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.1
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−5.1
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−5.1
n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −15.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−5.1
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle2627.7%+78.00
Chase1200%−12.00
Flat100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft2613.8%+49.00
Heavy10110%+19.00
Good to Soft200%−2.00
Good100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Auteuil (FR)3126.5%+72.00
Nancy400%−3.00
Lyon Parilly (FR)100%−1.00
Strasbourg (FR)100%−1.00
Fontainebleau (FR)100%−1.00
Compiegne (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1200%−2.00
Class 3100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
2nd–3rd fav100%—−1.00
4th–6th fav700%0.00−7.00
7th+ in betting3026.7%3.25+73.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f3425.9%+70.00
2m5f – 3m300%−3.00
1m2f – 1m4f100%−1.00
1m5f – 2m100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20134125%+70.00
2014200%−2.00
2015400%−4.00
20166116.7%+23.00
2017600%−6.00
2018300%−3.00
2019200%−2.00
2020300%−3.00
2021100%—
2022100%−1.00
2023100%−1.00
2024300%−3.00
2025100%−1.00
2026200%−2.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1300%−13.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners1300%−13.00
14-16 runners1119.1%+19.00
17+ runners6116.7%+68.00
8-10 runners600%−6.00
5-7 runners200%−2.00
2-4 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 8 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 8 horses listed, 2 arrived from another yard in our archive; 6 had their first archived run for this yard.
None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
··00170·00033·
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 10.2% of 1,093 runs since 2008 (128 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.2% from 167. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.8% from 148.
Progeny have won 16.8% of 2,009 runs since 2010 (167 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 20.1% from 497. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.7% from 339.
Progeny have won 7.8% of 205 runs since 2019 (27 horses).
Abydos (GER)0% · 0–1
Progeny have won 0% of 1 run since 2023 (1 horse). A small sample.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 2 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
all 39 archived runs · newest first
Every one of A Blanpin's 39 archived runners, from 10 April 2013 to 1 November 2026, newest first — 2 winners among them.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is A Blanpin's strike rate?
A Blanpin has won 2 of 39 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.1% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does A Blanpin do best at?
Auteuil (FR) by strike rate: 2 wins from 31 runners (6.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is A Blanpin in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is A Blanpin's Fair A/E?
1.66, from 36 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
A Blanpin·SR 5.1%·A/E 1.66
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