1:53 Curragh
This Group 3 contest over a mile at the Curragh features a field of ten two-year-olds on good ground. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with only a handful of points separating the leading principals, underlining how competitive the race looks on paper. All bar one of the principals are yet to race at the Curragh, which adds an extra layer of uncertainty to a race where the strong pace shape is expected to play a significant role.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners declared, a strong pace is anticipated and the confidence in that assessment is high. Ballyskeagh, Sword Of State and Exceptionally are all likely to contest the lead or race prominently, while Tosca No Candis tends to race handily. That early speed could set the race up for those held up towards the rear, with the key question being whether the leaders will fold late and allow the closers to come through strongly in the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Damsel In Distress KTB Selection58/100Useful performer who has already won at today's trip in three runs to date.
- 2Bellesque57/100Useful performer who has already shown her ability by winning at this trip on her latest start.
- 3So Lovely54/100So Lovely has shown consistent placed form in three starts and is stepping up from 7f to a trip where she has already been placed once.
- 4Sea Of Rain53/100Sea Of Rain is a fair 2-year-old with solid placed form and a win at this trip.
- 5Speckles51/100Speckles has shown some ability in two runs at this track, finishing second on debut before a modest sixth last time.
- 6Tosca No Candis50/100Tosca No Candis is a useful performer who showed clear improvement when winning last time out.
- 7Exceptionally50/100Exceptionally has shown steady placed form in two of three starts, including a third here over shorter, though the 12th on the other visit was poor.
- 8Ballyskeagh47/100Lightly raced colt who showed fair pace when winning a 7f maiden on this ground last time.
- 9Sword Of State45/100Fair performer who showed promise when winning a maiden on good ground last time but was well held in a Group 3 here on his previous start.
- 10Samnina44/100Samnina has shown ability in two starts, finishing fourth on debut here over 7f before improving to win last time.
The contenders
Damsel In Distress KTB Fit 58/100
Damsel In Distress arrives with a KTB Fit rating of 58 and is the selection. She is a useful performer who has already won at today's trip in just three runs to date. The filly handles good ground and stepped up from 7f having shown enough speed to win over that distance last time out. Her recent form figures read 514. Trainer Daniel McLoughlin has an 8% strike rate at the Curragh from 53 runs while jockey Ben Coen operates at 7% from 635 rides here, both modest records. She is usually held up and produces her effort late.
Bellesque KTB Fit 57/100
Bellesque is rated just a point behind on KTB Fit at 57. She is a useful performer who has already shown her ability by winning at this trip on her latest start. The filly acts on good ground and the Curragh figures for both trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien and jockey Declan McDonogh are solid enough without being flashy. Recent form reads 213 and she remains lightly raced with the scope to improve a little more. She is usually held up and produces her effort late.
So Lovely KTB Fit 54/100
So Lovely carries a KTB Fit of 54. She has shown consistent placed form in three starts and is stepping up from 7f to a trip where she has already been placed once. The Aidan O'Brien yard posts a 19% strike-rate at the Curragh from 4453 runs while Ryan Moore is operating at 31% from 708 rides here. Her recent form figures read 221. With only three runs on the clock and a low data confidence any firm conclusions remain tentative. She is usually held up and produces her effort late.
Sea Of Rain KTB Fit 53/100
Sea Of Rain is next in on a KTB Fit of 53. He is a fair two-year-old with solid placed form and a win at this trip. The colt has already shown he handles the Curragh and good ground, recording one win from five starts on it. Trainer J S Bolger has a 10% strike rate at the track from 4118 runs while jockey Colin Keane operates at 13% from 1234 rides here, both established but not high strike rates. Recent form reads 422314 and he is usually held up, producing his effort late.
Speckles KTB Fit 51/100
Speckles is rated 51 on KTB Fit. He has shown some ability in two runs at this track, finishing second on debut before a modest sixth last time. The colt is stepping up to 1m for the first time which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer Aidan O'Brien has a solid 19% strike rate at the Curragh from 4453 runs while jockey Ronan Whelan operates at 6% from 987 rides here. Recent form reads 62 and he is usually held up though that assessment is based on limited evidence.
The rest of the field
Tosca No CandisKTB Fit 50/100
Tosca No Candis is a useful performer who showed clear improvement when winning last time out. He steps up to 1m today having been well held in two previous runs at the trip and the small sample on good ground leaves his ideal conditions unconfirmed. Trainer Robson De Aguiar has a modest 7% strike-rate at the Curragh from 60 runs while jockey W J Lee records a 9% strike-rate from 1493 rides here. Recent form reads 5551 and he tends to race prominently.
ExceptionallyKTB Fit 50/100
Exceptionally has shown steady placed form in two of three starts, including a third here over shorter, though the 12th on the other visit was poor. The step up to 1m is an unknown at this stage while the small sample makes it hard to gauge what the colt will do next. Aidan O'Brien has a 19% strike rate at the Curragh from 4453 runs while Wayne Lordan operates at 9% from 2012 rides. Recent form reads 033 and he tends to make the running.
BallyskeaghKTB Fit 47/100
Ballyskeagh is a lightly raced colt who showed fair pace when winning a 7f maiden on this ground last time. He steps up to 1m for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a 12% strike rate from 1345 runs at the Curragh while jockey Chris Hayes is operating at 7% from 1920 rides here. Recent form reads 51 and he tends to make the running.
Sword Of StateKTB Fit 45/100
Sword Of State is a fair performer who showed promise when winning a maiden on good ground last time but was well held in a Group 3 here on his previous start. He steps up to 1m for the first time today having looked stretched at 7.5f last time, so the extra distance is an unknown. Trainer Brendan W Duke holds a modest 5% strike rate at the Curragh while jockey Rory Cleary is 4% from 1168 rides here. Recent form reads 718 and he tends to make the running.
SamninaKTB Fit 44/100
Samnina has shown ability in two starts, finishing fourth on debut here over 7f before improving to win last time. She steps up to 1m today which asks a fresh question of her, while the Curragh form reads only modestly so far. Both trainer Mrs John Harrington and jockey Shane Foley have modest 9% strike rates at the track from large samples. Recent form reads 41 and she typically settles in midfield.
KTB verdict
Damsel In Distress is the KTB Selection. She has already shown she can win at a mile, handles the ground, and her held-up style looks ideal given the strong pace that is likely to unfold. The selection has the best recent winning form at the trip among the principals and should be suited by the shape of the race. The main dangers are Bellesque, who is open to more improvement, and So Lovely, who brings the powerful Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore combination along with consistent placed form.
KTB Selection Damsel In Distress
This is the narrative read of the 1:53 Curragh. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Curragh racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Curragh results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited by the expected strong pace?
Damsel In Distress, Bellesque, So Lovely, Sea Of Rain and Speckles are all usually held up and produce their effort late, which should suit a race where the pace is likely to collapse.
How many of the principals have previous Curragh form?
Only Speckles has previous Curragh form, where he has finished second and sixth. The other four principals have no course form on record.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at the Curragh in this race?
Aidan O'Brien has a 19% strike rate at the Curragh from 4453 runs, the highest of any trainer represented.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at the Curragh in this race?
Ryan Moore has a 31% strike rate at the Curragh from 708 rides, the highest of any jockey taking part.
How many front-runners or prominent runners are likely to set the pace?
Exceptionally, Ballyskeagh and Sword Of State tend to make the running, while Tosca No Candis usually races handily, supporting the assessment of a strong pace.
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