Chance A Tune (FR)
Chance A Tune won three of 18 starts on turf between Dec 2018 and Sep 2024. Each win came on a first visit to the course, two of them over 2m1f – 2m4f and one over 1m5f – 2m, on good, soft and heavy ground. The gelding, aged 9 at his last run in Sep 2024, finished second of six in a Class 2 handicap chase at Worcester off a mark of 115, which was 14lb below his highest ever mark.
- 3–18Wins / Runs
- 16.7%Strike rate
- 8 (44.4%)Placed
- −4.25£1 level staken=18 at SP
- 0.95Fair A/E n=18 · 0.84 incl. margin
- 129Highest OR
- 35dBetween runs (median)longest 759 d
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
Best recent Speed 108
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 4 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good | 9 | 132A | 101 | — |
| Soft | 4 | 116A | 64.5 | — |
| Heavy | 2 | 108A | 86 | — |
| Good to Soft | 1 | — | — | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 4 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m5f – 2m | 9 | 116A | 87 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 6 | 132A | 109.5 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 1 | — | — | — |
Of 18 runs looked at, 2 have no figure: did not complete (1) · obstacles omitted — the race ran a shortened course (1).
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 16 figures from 18 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 10.2% of 973 runs since Sep 2008 (148 horses).
Strongest on heavy going: 15.5% from 110. Weakest on standard (aw) going: 5.9% from 287. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 17.8% from 129. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5% from 140.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Firm | 1 | 0 | 0% | −10.2 | — |
| Good | 174 | 19 | 10.9% | +0.7 | 1 from 9 |
| Good to Soft | 130 | 16 | 12.3% | +2.1 | 0 from 1 |
| Soft | 271 | 30 | 11.1% | +0.9 | 1 from 6 |
| Heavy | 110 | 17 | 15.5% | +5.3 | 1 from 2 |
| Standard (AW) | 287 | 17 | 5.9% | −4.3 | — |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 31 | 3 | 9.7% | −0.5 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 213 | 17 | 8% | −2.2 | — |
| 1m – 1m1f | 271 | 23 | 8.5% | −1.7 | — |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 140 | 7 | 5% | −5.2 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 129 | 23 | 17.8% | +7.6 | 1 from 9 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 163 | 21 | 12.9% | +2.7 | 2 from 8 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 23 | 4 | 17.4% | +7.2 | 0 from 1 |
| Over 3m | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | +23.1 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Sep 2008 · as at 4 Nov 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
3 siblings in the archive, 1 winner — best of them Mister Dick (FR) (1 win).
The wins came over 2m6½f; the highest grade won is Class 5 (Mister Dick (FR)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mister Dick (FR) | 22 | 1 | 2m6½f | Class 5 |
| Damask (FR) | 14 | 0 | — | — |
| Mister Happy (FR) | 5 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good | 9 | 1 | 11% | −5.25 |
| Soft | 6 | 1 | 17% | −0.50 |
| Heavy | 2 | 1 | 50% | +2.50 |
| Good to Soft | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 4 | 9 | 2 | 22% | +0.25 |
| Class 2 | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Class 3 | 4 | 1 | 25% | +0.50 |
| Class 5 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kempton | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Aintree | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Uttoxeter | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Worcester | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Plumpton | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Hereford | 1 | 1 | 100% | +4.50 |
| Ludlow | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Ascot | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Chepstow | 1 | 1 | 100% | +3.50 |
| Market Rasen | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Southwell | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Fontwell | 1 | 1 | 100% | +2.75 |
| Wetherby | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Warwick | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Wincanton | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m5f – 2m | 9 | 1 | 11% | −4.50 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 8 | 2 | 25% | +1.25 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Turner | 8 | 2 | 25% | +2.00 |
| Sam Twiston-Davies | 7 | 0 | 0% | −7.00 |
| Jordan Nailor | 2 | 1 | 50% | +1.75 |
| Eddie Edge | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 4 | 1 | 25% | +1.50 |
| 2023 | 5 | 1 | 20% | −0.50 |
| 2021 | 4 | 1 | 25% | −0.25 |
| 2020 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| 2019 | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| 2018 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Type | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurdle | 13 | 2 | 15% | −4.75 |
| Chase | 4 | 1 | 25% | +1.50 |
| NH Flat | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 · 4 runs | ||||||||||
| 16 Sep 24+196d | Worcester | Bennett Whitehouse Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Settled towards back early - improved into contention 6th though awkward there - urged forward after 4 out and untidy 3 out - shared 2nd spot approaching final furlong - unable to close on winner in the closing stages | 2/6 | 4½ | 10-10 | 115 | 83A | 120B | James Turner | 13/2 |
| 04 Mar 24+8d | Plumpton | Dean Wilson LLP Handicap Chase | UR/4 | — | 11-2 | 108 | — | — | James Turner | 7/2 |
| 25 Feb 24+18d | Hereford | Download The PlanetSportBet App Handicap Chase | 1/5 | 10-9 | 108 | — | 122B | James Turner | 9/2 | |
| 07 Feb 24+43d | Ludlow | Visit racingtv.com Handicap Chase | 4/6 | 8 | 11-8 | 111 | 42A | 103B | James Turner | 7/2 |
| 2023 · 5 runs | ||||||||||
| 26 Dec 23+17d | Kempton | Ladbrokes Get Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Hurdle | 6/7 | nk | 9-11 | 114 | 80C | 96C | James Turner | 7/1 |
| 09 Dec 23+35d | Aintree | BoyleSports Extra Place Races Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) | 6/10 | 2¾ | 10-7 | 116 | 108A | 109A | Sam Twiston-Davies | 9/1 |
| 04 Nov 23+22d | Ascot | Seat Unique Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) | 4/12 | ¾ | 9-9 | 116 | 116A | 119A | James Turner | 12/1 |
| 13 Oct 23+13d | Chepstow | Professor Caroline Tisdall Supports Heroic Jumpers Seniors' Handicap Hurdle | 1/12 | 9-10 | 108 | 64A | 127A | James Turner | 7/2 | |
| 30 Sep 23+759d | Market Rasen | Ferry Ales Brewery Prelude Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) | 3/11 | ½ | 9-12 | 107 | 97A | 113A | James Turner | 10/1 |
| 2021 · 4 runs | ||||||||||
| 01 Sep 21+50d | Uttoxeter | Welcome To bresbet.com Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) | 2/4 | 10 | 10-9 | 115 | 111C | 120B | Eddie Edge | 8/11F |
| 13 Jul 21+44d | Southwell | Casumo Proud To Support British Racing Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) | 3/8 | ½ | 11-4 | 117 | 103B | 119A | Jordan Nailor | 13/8 |
| 30 May 21+17d | Uttoxeter | Free Tips Daily On Attheraces.com Handicap Hurdle | 4/6 | 4½ | 11-11 | 120 | 125A | 120B | Sam Twiston-Davies | 3/1 |
| 13 May 21+476d | Fontwell | Racing Supporting Mental Health Awareness Week Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) | 1/8 | 10-10 | 120 | 132A | 124A | Jordan Nailor | 11/4 | |
| 2020 · 1 run | ||||||||||
| 23 Jan 20+27d | Wetherby | Watch Racing TV In Stunning HD EBF 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle | 5/9 | 3½ | 11-2 | 129 | 87B | 108A | Sam Twiston-Davies | 7/2 |
| 2019 · 3 runs | ||||||||||
| 27 Dec 19+20d | Kempton | Ladbrokes Football 'Acca-Boosty' Handicap Hurdle | 10/10 | 9 | 11-2 | 129 | 34C | 106C | Sam Twiston-Davies | 8/1 |
| 07 Dec 19+65d | Aintree | Play Casino At Virgin Bet Novices' Hurdle | 3/7 | 8 | 10-12 | — | 88A | 121A | Sam Twiston-Davies | 8/1 |
| 03 Oct 19+301d | Warwick | Bet At Racingtv.com 'national Hunt' Novices' Hurdle | 2/7 | ¾ | 10-12 | — | 80A | 125B | Sam Twiston-Davies | 4/1 |
| 2018 · 1 run | ||||||||||
| 06 Dec 18 | Wincanton | Jockey Club Catering 'Junior' Standard Open NH Flat Race | 2/14 | 2¾ | 10-12 | — | 101B | 122A | Sam Twiston-Davies | 16/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Chance A Tune won?
- Chance A Tune (FR) won 3 of 18 archived starts between 2018 and 2024, a strike rate of 16.7%. Placed 8 times in total (44.4% of starts).
- Who trained Chance A Tune?
- Chance A Tune (FR) was trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies on the most recent run on record, at Worcester on 16 September 2024.
- Who is Chance A Tune's sire?
- Chance A Tune (FR) is by My Risk (FR) out of Lyric Melody (FR), whose sire is Lyphard's Wish.
- What going does Chance A Tune prefer?
- Chance A Tune (FR) has the best record on soft going: 1 win from 6 starts (16.7%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Chance A Tune's official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 115, from the run on 16 September 2024. The highest on record is 129.
- What is Chance A Tune's sire's record?
- My Risk (FR)'s progeny in our archive have won 10.2% of 973 runs since Sep 2008 (148 horses), Flat and jumps together. Strongest on heavy going: 15.5% from 110. Weakest on standard (aw) going: 5.9% from 287. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 17.8% from 129. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5% from 140.
- Who are Chance A Tune's siblings?
- Out of Lyric Melody (FR), Chance A Tune (FR) has 3 other produce in our archive, 1 of them a winner. Most wins: Mister Dick (FR) (1). Highest grade won: Class 5 (Mister Dick (FR)). The wins came over 2m6½f. As at Nov 2026.