What is Sam Twiston-Davies's strike rate?

Sam Twiston-Davies has won 461 of 2,964 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 15.6% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Sam Twiston-Davies do best at?

Market Rasen by strike rate: 26 wins from 102 rides (25.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Sam Twiston-Davies ride most for?

Nigel Twiston-Davies, with 769 rides since 2022 — 26% of the total. That pairing has won 127 (16.5%).

Is Sam Twiston-Davies in form?

In the last 14 days: 37 rides, 7 winners, a strike rate of 18.9%. That is above the baseline of 15.6% since 2022.

What is Sam Twiston-Davies's Fair A/E?

0.96, from 2,959 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Sam Twiston-Davies

2,964 rides in the last 5 seasons · 1,113 individual horses

As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

In form — 7 winners last 14 days Won yesterday Last ride yesterday 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2009→)

from 1 Jan 2022

461–2,964

Wins / Runs

15.6%

Strike rate

n=2,964

1,105 (37%)

Placed

0.96

Fair A/E

n=2,959 · 0.83 incl. margin

−587.22

£1 level stake

n=2,963 at SP · −19.8%

£7.75m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

17.7%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 590 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 16% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.96). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 23% (448 rides). The rider is in form now — 7 winners in the last fortnight, above their own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 2,964 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 4 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Aug–Oct Fresh horses: 16.8% 38% when favourite Nigel Twiston-Davies: 16.5% from 769 LTO winners: 22.8% Rides the favourite in 18% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Newton Abbot (25.2%, n=127), Market Rasen (25.5%, n=102) and Fontwell (24.8%, n=117) — all clear of the rider's 15.6% baseline. It is weakest at Newbury (6.5% over 108 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 22.8% (n=448, Fair A/E 1.05), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 5.6% (n=342, Fair A/E 0.74). The market has consistently overbet in Group and Graded company the record: 8.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.74 and −109.69 to a £1 stake over 227 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Right now the rider is firing: 7 winners from 37 rides in the last 14 days (18.9%, 3.3pts above the 15.6% baseline). Nigel Twiston-Davies supplies 26% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (16.5%, A/E 0.95). The record reads poorly in Class 1 — 7.8% over 332 rides, 7.8pts below the baseline. 124 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham (Mar 2015, £199,325). The standout partner of the record: The New One (IRE) — 18 wins from 35 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Aug–Oct.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 15.6% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

12.8%−2.8

n=964 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −174.09

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

22.8%+7.2

n=448 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −72.86

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

16.8%+1.2

n=695 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −100.98

When favourite

38%

n=527 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −58.40

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.6%−10.0

n=342 · A/E 0.74 · £1 −126.62

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

8.8%−6.8

n=227 · A/E 0.74 · £1 −109.69

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 15.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Newton Abbot 25.2% vs 15.6% · n=127

At Market Rasen 25.5% vs 15.6% · n=102

In Class 1 7.8% vs 15.6% · n=332

On last-time-out winners 22.8% vs 15.6% · n=448

At Fontwell 24.8% vs 15.6% · n=117

At Newbury 6.5% vs 15.6% · n=108

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 1,651 258 15.6% −359.32

Chase 1,027 158 15.4% −150.51

NH Flat 282 45 16% −73.39

Flat 4 0 0% −4.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 1,320 235 17.8% −131.83

Good to Soft 790 97 12.3% −362.80

Soft 623 89 14.3% −29.13

Heavy 162 26 16% −39.71

Good to Firm 63 14 22.2% −17.75

Standard (AW) 6 0 0% −6.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Worcester 207 33 15.9% +62.80

Cheltenham 201 22 10.9% −47.82

Ludlow 152 25 16.4% −48.55

Uttoxeter 143 24 16.8% +25.41

Chepstow 131 24 18.3% −21.30

Warwick 128 18 14.1% −36.65

Newton Abbot 127 32 25.2% +10.88

Huntingdon 120 16 13.3% −39.32

Fontwell 117 29 24.8% −23.77

Hereford 112 21 18.8% −27.27

Newbury 108 7 6.5% −60.94

Market Rasen 102 26 25.5% −12.48

Stratford 101 21 20.8% +30.89

Aintree 97 10 10.3% −37.00

Wincanton 92 15 16.3% −20.35

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 1,136 199 17.5% −335.96

Class 5 675 107 15.9% +58.27

Class 3 505 95 18.8% −31.85

Class 1 332 26 7.8% −139.31

Class 2 314 34 10.8% −136.37

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 587 210 35.8% 0.98 −80.83

2nd–3rd fav 910 152 16.7% 0.91 −222.22

4th–6th fav 935 78 8.3% 0.98 −224.67

7th+ in betting 531 20 3.8% 1.03 −59.50

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

86.7% completed · 2,678 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 1,027 81.4% 29 15 143 2 2

Hurdle 1,651 90% 21 16 125 2 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Bagheera Ginge (GB) 24 4 12 15 Sep 26

Master Chewy (IRE) 24 2 9 12 Mar 26

Ballycamus (IRE) 23 5 10 14 Oct 26

Gowel Road (IRE) 19 2 9 24 Oct 26

Gore Point (GB) 18 7 12 31 Oct 26

Safe Destination (GB) 18 3 7 16 Oct 26

Guy (IRE) 18 4 10 10 Apr 25

Uncle Bert (GB) 17 2 6 24 Oct 26

Ballintubber Boy (IRE) 16 5 5 15 Aug 26

Potters Charm (IRE) 15 8 10 1 Nov 26

Guard Your Dreams (GB) 15 1 3 14 Oct 26

Topofthecotswolds (IRE) 15 2 5 9 Oct 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 1,113 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 8 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

In form

7 from 37 18.9% · +3.3pts vs baseline

Last 14 days18.9%

5-season base15.6%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

131412121419161726241512

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardNigel Twiston-Davies

26% of all rides
16.5% SR · A/E 0.95

TrainerRWSR£1

Nigel Twiston-Davies 769 127 16.5% −238.25

Neil Mulholland 290 38 13.1% −10.96

Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies 281 52 18.5% −97.32

Anthony Honeyball 279 58 20.8% −13.28

Henry Daly 221 37 16.7% −7.18

Dr Richard Newland 171 19 11.1% −76.41

Sam Thomas 135 27 20% −42.32

James Owen 114 24 21.1% −9.75

Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole 37 4 10.8% −9.87

Charlie Longsdon 31 3 9.7% +5.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2009→

1,704

Archived wins

124

Pattern / graded wins

£25.0m

Prize money

2014

Best season · 144 wins

Dodging Bullets (GB) — Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) Cheltenham · Mar 2015 · Grade 1

£199,325

Clan Des Obeaux (FR) — Ladbrokes Punchestown Gold Cup (Grade 1) Punchestown · Apr 2021 · Grade 1

£147,500

Clan Des Obeaux (FR) — Ladbrokes King George Vi Chase (Grade 1) Kempton · Dec 2019 · Grade 1

£144,050

Notable horses

The New One (IRE) Good Boy Bobby (IRE) Vosne Romanee (GB) Papradon (GB) Bagad Bihoue (FR) Potters Charm (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Getaway (GER) 16.4% · 19–116

Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,979 runs since 2016 (1,029 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.

Pether's Moon (IRE) 16.3% · 15–92

Progeny have won 13.1% of 913 runs since 2020 (106 horses).

Walk In The Park (IRE) 14% · 12–86

Progeny have won 13.3% of 7,024 runs since 2011 (703 horses).

Blue Bresil (FR) 9% · 7–78

Progeny have won 12.2% of 3,529 runs since 2013 (461 horses).

Milan (GB) 12.8% · 10–78

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,869 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).

Kayf Tara (GB) 20% · 12–60

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,754 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 10,757 · newest first

The latest 50 of 10,757 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 15 January 2009 to 3 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

03 Nov 26 Warwick Electric Eddy (GB)T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies Alex & Edward Alder Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 21f · Good · 10 ran 3rd 8/1

03 Nov 26 Warwick Gallant Lion (GB)T: Ian Williams Alder Demain & Akers Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good · 11 ran 7th 16/1

03 Nov 26 Warwick Winding Lake (IRE)T: Harriet Dickin Alder Demain & Akers Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 19f · Good · 6 ran 4th 150/1

03 Nov 26 Warwick Un Sens A La Vie (FR)T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies Stan Mellor Memorial 'Chasing Excellence' Beginners' Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 16f · Good · 2 ran 1st 4/11F

02 Nov 26 Plumpton The Boss Bear (IRE)T: James Owen Final Fence Open 30th November Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 20.5f · Good · 7 ran 4th 15/8F

02 Nov 26 Plumpton One Island (FR)T: Paul Nicholls Southern Access Platforms Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 5th 10/1

02 Nov 26 Plumpton Nardaran (FR)T: Paul Nicholls Southern Cranes Handicap Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 2 · 20.5f · Good · 12 ran 9th 5/1

02 Nov 26 Plumpton Walk In The West (IRE)T: Anthony Honeyball Southern Contract Novices' Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good · 9 ran 1st 7/1

02 Nov 26 Plumpton Le Cold Grey (FR)T: Paul Nicholls Cappagh Browne Utilities Ltd Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 100/30

01 Nov 26 Carlisle Guard The Moon (GB)T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies Pricedup Boosts And Bog Cumberland Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 26f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 13/2

01 Nov 26 Carlisle Potters Charm (IRE)T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Steeple Chase (Listed Race) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 20f · Good · 3 ran 2nd 8/11F

01 Nov 26 Carlisle Obsessedwithyou (FR)T: Jamie Snowden Pricedup Boosted Prices Daily Houghton Mares' Steeple Chase (Listed Race) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 20f · Good · 4 ran 1st 6/1

31 Oct 26 Ascot Saint Argente (IRE)T: Warren Greatrex Ascot Colts And Fillies' Club Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 15.5f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 1st 2/1F

31 Oct 26 Ascot Fasol (GB)T: Paul Nicholls Lavazza Handicap Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 2 · 15.5f · Good To Firm · 16 ran 4th 12/1

31 Oct 26 Ascot Gore Point (GB)T: Anthony Honeyball Sodexo Live! Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 2 · 17f · Good · 11 ran 9th 14/1

31 Oct 26 Ascot Glynn Brae (IRE)T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies Ascot Underwriting Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 19f · Good · 5 ran 5th 9/2

30 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Sir Hobnob (GB)T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies Abode Estate Agents Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 20f · Good · 15 ran 6th 13/2

30 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Knight Crossing (IRE)T: Warren Greatrex Support The Royal British Legion Poppy Appeal Mares' Maiden Hurdle Race (Herring Queen Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 13 ran 10th 16/1

29 Oct 26 Stratford And So It Begins (GB)T: Anthony Honeyball Charlotte Cole And Becky Rowland Memorial Fillies' "Junior" National Hunt Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 1st 1/1F

29 Oct 26 Stratford Big Ticket (GB)T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies Happy Birthday Penny Tyacke Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran PU 9/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 8 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 15 runs (won 6) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 12 runs (won 5) · fastest on KTB Speed in 10 runs (won 2) · to 3 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Sam Twiston-Davies's strike rate?: Sam Twiston-Davies has won 461 of 2,964 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 15.6% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Sam Twiston-Davies do best at?: Market Rasen by strike rate: 26 wins from 102 rides (25.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Sam Twiston-Davies ride most for?: Nigel Twiston-Davies, with 769 rides since 2022 — 26% of the total. That pairing has won 127 (16.5%).
Is Sam Twiston-Davies in form?: In the last 14 days: 37 rides, 7 winners, a strike rate of 18.9%. That is above the baseline of 15.6% since 2022.
What is Sam Twiston-Davies's Fair A/E?: 0.96, from 2,959 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.