What is Jordan Nailor's strike rate?

Jordan Nailor has won 34 of 276 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.3% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which yard does Jordan Nailor ride most for?

Nigel Twiston-Davies, with 160 rides since 2022 — 58% of the total. That pairing has won 25 (15.6%).

What is Jordan Nailor's Fair A/E?

1.06, from 276 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Jordan Nailor

276 rides in the last 5 seasons · 139 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Apr 2025 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2016→)

from 1 Jan 2022

34–276

Wins / Runs

12.3%

Strike rate

n=276

77 (28%)

Placed

1.06

Fair A/E

n=276 · 0.92 incl. margin

−75.23

£1 level stake

n=276 at SP · −27.3%

£545k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

16.7%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 60 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 12% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.06). Rides mostly for Nigel Twiston-Davies — 58% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 276 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Feb–Mar Nigel Twiston-Davies: 15.6% from 160

The read

Rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 3.9% (n=51, Fair A/E 0.64). The market has consistently overbet claiming rides: 7.4% strike, Fair A/E 0.68 and −69.43 to a £1 stake over 121 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Nigel Twiston-Davies supplies 58% of the rides and edges the rider's average (15.6% vs 12.3%, A/E 1.16) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well in Class 3 (21.6%, n=51) and on Soft going (17%, n=88). The record reads poorly on Good going — 5.1% over 78 rides, 7.2pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider in Class 5: Fair A/E 0.73 across 74 rides (6.8% strike, −32.34 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the bet365 Midlands Grand National Handicap Chase at Uttoxeter (Mar 2024, £84,405). The standout partner of the record: Top Of The Bill (IRE) — 6 wins from 18 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Feb–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.3% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

9.6%−2.7

n=104 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −44.50

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

17.9%+5.6

n=28 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −8.84

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

11.3%−1.0

n=53 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −0.33

When favourite

38.5%

n=26 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −3.81

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

7.4%−4.9

n=121 · A/E 0.68 · £1 −69.43

Big fields · 14+ runners

3.9%−8.4

n=51 · A/E 0.64 · £1 −44.93

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

8.3%−4.0

n=12 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −8.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

In Class 3 21.6% vs 12.3% · n=51

On Good going 5.1% vs 12.3% · n=78

In Class 5 6.8% vs 12.3% · n=74

When claiming 7.4% vs 12.3% · n=121

On Soft going 17% vs 12.3% · n=88

With Tom Symonds 17.5% vs 12.3% · n=40

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 156 16 10.3% −79.70

Chase 91 14 15.4% −6.69

NH Flat 29 4 13.8% +11.16

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good to Soft 93 12 12.9% −13.76

Soft 88 15 17% −16.30

Good 78 4 5.1% −58.84

Heavy 15 3 20% +15.67

Good to Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Exeter 18 8 44.4% +26.92

Wincanton 18 5 27.8% +6.53

Newbury 17 3 17.6% +12.33

Hereford 16 0 0% −16.00

Warwick 14 1 7.1% −11.80

Huntingdon 13 1 7.7% −10.25

Cheltenham 13 0 0% −13.00

Uttoxeter 13 3 23.1% +12.07

Sandown 12 0 0% −12.00

Market Rasen 11 1 9.1% −7.00

Ludlow 10 0 0% −10.00

Ffos Las 10 3 30% +7.33

Taunton 9 1 11.1% −4.50

Wetherby 9 2 22.2% −0.93

Southwell 9 1 11.1% −7.09

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 108 14 13% −46.53

Class 5 74 5 6.8% −32.34

Class 3 51 11 21.6% +18.07

Class 2 22 2 9.1% −15.93

Class 1 21 2 9.5% +1.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 37 12 32.4% 1.02 −6.81

2nd–3rd fav 67 11 16.4% 0.99 −20.92

4th–6th fav 77 8 10.4% 1.27 −5.50

7th+ in betting 95 3 3.2% 1.04 −42.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

84.6% completed · 247 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 91 72.5% 2 1 21 0 1

Hurdle 156 91.7% 2 3 8 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Top Of The Bill (IRE) 16 6 8 21 Mar 25

Thelasthighking (IRE) 12 2 5 25 Nov 24

Beauport (IRE) 12 3 6 20 Apr 24

Mister Barclay (GB) 10 1 5 6 Apr 25

Spirits Bay (GB) 9 2 4 16 Apr 25

Issam (FR) 8 3 6 13 Jan 25

Noble Savage (IRE) 8 1 2 28 Jan 24

Luckofthedraw (FR) 7 1 2 23 Apr 24

Hystery Bere (FR) 6 0 2 11 Apr 25

Tedley (GB) 5 1 2 9 Mar 24

Rocco (IRE) 5 0 0 12 Apr 23

The Cypriot (IRE) 4 0 0 19 Apr 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 139 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

521241010·0001785

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardNigel Twiston-Davies

58% of all rides
15.6% SR · A/E 1.16

TrainerRWSR£1

Nigel Twiston-Davies 160 25 15.6% −14.58

Tom Symonds 40 7 17.5% +8.85

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2016→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.14m

Prize money

2021

Best season · 28 wins

Beauport (IRE) — bet365 Midlands Grand National Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) Uttoxeter · Mar 2024 · Class 1

£84,405

Rocco (IRE) — 60th Badger Beer Handicap Chase (Listed) (GBB Race) Wincanton · Nov 2021 · Listed

£34,170

Beauport (IRE) — European Breeders' Fund Paddy Power 'National Hunt' Novices' Handicap Hurdle Final (Grade 3) (GBB Race) Sandown · Mar 2021 · Grade 3

£28,230

Notable horses

Top Of The Bill (IRE) Beauport (IRE) Ballyellis (IRE) Aunty Ann (IRE) Luckofthedraw (FR) Issam (FR)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Fame And Glory (GB) 35% · 7–20

Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,212 runs since 2016 (504 horses).

Califet (FR) 23.1% · 3–13

Progeny have won 11.8% of 3,802 runs since 2008 (399 horses).

Black Sam Bellamy (IRE) 16.7% · 2–12

Progeny have won 10.3% of 4,687 runs since 2008 (466 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 145.

Nathaniel (IRE) 25% · 3–12

Progeny have won 11.7% of 7,108 runs since 2016 (641 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 6.4% from 326.

Roderic O'connor (IRE) 16.7% · 2–12

Progeny have won 10.1% of 2,341 runs since 2015 (166 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.5% from 126. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.7% from 224. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.3% from 143.

Arcadio (GER) 11.1% · 1–9

Progeny have won 9.2% of 3,979 runs since 2011 (375 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 863 · newest first

The latest 50 of 863 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 18 February 2016 to 17 April 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

17 Apr 25 Cheltenham Rainbow Tara (GB)T: Toby Bulgin Junior Jumpers Mares' Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 2 · 17f · Good · 18 ran 7th 40/1

16 Apr 25 Cheltenham Spirits Bay (GB)T: Nigel Twiston-Davies Kingston Stud Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 2 · 20.5f · Good · 14 ran 13th 7/1

14 Apr 25 Hexham Solal Nonantais (FR)T: Toby Bulgin Angel Of Corbridge Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 4th 13/2

11 Apr 25 Huntingdon Hystery Bere (FR)T: Tom Symonds Advertise Your Business At Huntingdon Racecourse Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 23.5f · Good · 4 ran PU 15/8F

06 Apr 25 Ffos Las Mister Barclay (GB)T: Tom Symonds Welsh Cottage Cakes Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 6th 11/1

05 Apr 25 Newcastle Immortal Fame (IRE)T: Deborah Cole Val And Kath Bollado Memorial Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 20f · Good · 7 ran PU 5/1

21 Mar 25 Ffos Las Top Of The Bill (IRE)T: Nigel Twiston-Davies Amroth Bay Caravan Park 'West Wales National' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 24f · Good · 8 ran 1st 10/1

19 Mar 25 Huntingdon Merely A Detail (GB)T: Toby Bulgin Weatherbys Scientific Fillies' 'Junior' NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 10th 28/1

02 Mar 25 Huntingdon Mister Barclay (GB)T: Tom Symonds Wellingborough Old Grammarians Racing Tour Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 25f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 4th 6/1

28 Feb 25 Newbury Lud'or (FR)T: Tom Symonds Watch Weekend Winners Powered By BetVictor 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 3 · 20.5f · Soft · 5 ran 2nd 13/2

08 Feb 25 Uttoxeter Mister Barclay (GB)T: Tom Symonds Uttoxeter Racecourse Caravan And Motorhome Site Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Soft · 9 ran 5th 4/1J

01 Feb 25 Wetherby Lud'or (FR)T: Tom Symonds Wilmot-Smith Memorial Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Soft · 14 ran 1st 4/7F

25 Jan 25 Cheltenham Spirits Bay (GB)T: Nigel Twiston-Davies Unibet Hurdle (Registered As The International Hurdle) (Grade 2) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 17f · Soft · 5 ran 3rd 28/1

24 Jan 25 Doncaster Ocean Walz (FR)T: Tom Symonds Virgin Bet EBF 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 3 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 11th 33/1

18 Jan 25 Haydock Spirits Bay (GB)T: Nigel Twiston-Davies Sky Bet Acca Freeze Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 15.5f · Soft · 8 ran 3rd 7/2

15 Jan 25 Newbury It's A Good Name (FR)T: Deborah Cole Grosvenor Sport New Customers Double Odds Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16.5f · Soft · 11 ran 9th 125/1

13 Jan 25 Exeter Issam (FR)T: Tom Symonds Exeter Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 19f · Soft · 6 ran 1st 7/1

02 Jan 25 Huntingdon Hystery Bere (FR)T: Tom Symonds Join The 20 Club At Huntingdon Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 23.5f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 2nd 7/2

31 Dec 24 Warwick Hauraki Gulf (GB)T: Deborah Cole Poundland Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 26f · Soft · 10 ran 2nd 10/1

18 Dec 24 Newbury Tyger Lily (GB)T: Toby Bulgin Download The BetVictor App Fillies' 'Junior' NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Soft · 8 ran 5th 9/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Jordan Nailor's strike rate?: Jordan Nailor has won 34 of 276 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.3% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which yard does Jordan Nailor ride most for?: Nigel Twiston-Davies, with 160 rides since 2022 — 58% of the total. That pairing has won 25 (15.6%).
What is Jordan Nailor's Fair A/E?: 1.06, from 276 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.