Expect To Succeed (IRE)
Expect To Succeed (IRE) is yet to win from 5 starts, though has placed twice. Best effort: 3rd of 6 at Lingfield (AW) (Jan 2021).
- 0–5Wins / Runs
- 0%Strike rate
- 2 (40%)Placed
- −5.00£1 level staken=5 at SP
- 0.00Fair A/E n=5 · 0.00 incl. margin
- 77Highest OR
- 33dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
Best recent Speed 72
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 27 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (AW) | 4 | 72A | 66.5 | — |
| Good | 1 | — | — | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 27 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6f – 7f | 3 | 72A | 63 | — |
| 1m – 1m1f | 2 | 67A | 66.5 | — |
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 5 figures from 5 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style is derived from in-running commentary, which our data provider does not supply for this horse's races.
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 11.9% of 16,030 runs since Jan 2008 (1,161 horses).
Strongest on firm going: 20.7% from 198. Weakest on soft going: 7.9% from 1,194.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 198 | 41 | 20.7% | +8.8 | — |
| Good to Firm | 3,251 | 399 | 12.3% | +0.4 | — |
| Good | 3,146 | 328 | 10.4% | −1.5 | 0 from 1 |
| Good to Soft | 1,310 | 130 | 9.9% | −2 | — |
| Soft | 1,194 | 94 | 7.9% | −4 | — |
| Heavy | 273 | 25 | 9.2% | −2.7 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 6,658 | 883 | 13.3% | +1.4 | 0 from 4 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 3,860 | 521 | 13.5% | +1.6 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 8,006 | 951 | 11.9% | 0 | 0 from 3 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 2,755 | 289 | 10.5% | −1.4 | 0 from 2 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 1,025 | 102 | 10% | −1.9 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 273 | 26 | 9.5% | −2.4 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 102 | 10 | 9.8% | −2.1 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | −0.8 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 27 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
3 siblings in the archive, 2 winners — best of them Court Of Appeal (IRE) (2 wins).
The wins came over 1m1f–1m2½f.
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Court Of Appeal (IRE) | 16 | 2 | 1m1f–1m2f | — |
| Royal Monarch (GB) | 26 | 2 | 1m1½f–1m2½f | — |
| Mr Saturday (IRE) | 6 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (AW) | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Good | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lingfield (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Kempton (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Wolverhampton (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Newcastle (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Newbury | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6f – 7f | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Atzeni | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| David Egan | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Jack Mitchell | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| 2020 | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 · 1 run | ||||||||||
| 27 Jan 21+42d | Lingfield (AW) | Bombardier British-Hopped Amber Beer Maiden Stakes | 3/6 | 3½ | 8-8 | 76 | 67A | 73B | Jack Mitchell | 11/4 |
| 2020 · 4 runs | ||||||||||
| 16 Dec 20+30d | Kempton (AW) | British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (Div 1) | 6/13 | dht | 9-5 | 77 | 66B | 74A | Andrea Atzeni | 15/8F |
| 16 Nov 20+17d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Ladbrokes Watch Racing Online For Free Maiden Stakes (Div 2) | 3/11 | hd | 9-5 | — | 72A | 83A | Andrea Atzeni | 9/4J |
| 30 Oct 20+41d | Newcastle (AW) | Play Ladbrokes 5-A-Side On Football EBF Novice Stakes | 3/10 | 3 | 9-5 | — | 63A | 77A | David Egan | 14/1 |
| 19 Sep 20 | Newbury | Heatherwold Stud EBF Novice Stakes (Str) (Div 1) | 9/13 | 5 | 9-5 | — | 54C | 57A | David Egan | 16/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Expect To Succeed won?
- Expect To Succeed (IRE) has yet to win, from 5 archived starts between 2020 and 2021. Placed 2 times in total (40% of starts).
- Who trained Expect To Succeed?
- Expect To Succeed (IRE) was trained by Roger Varian on the most recent run on record, at Lingfield (AW) on 27 January 2021.
- Who is Expect To Succeed's sire?
- Expect To Succeed (IRE) is by Exceed and Excel (AUS) out of Gwael (USA), whose sire is A P Indy.
- What is Expect To Succeed's official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 76, from the run on 27 January 2021. The highest on record is 77.
- What is Expect To Succeed's sire's record?
- Exceed and Excel (AUS)'s progeny in our archive have won 11.9% of 16,030 runs since Jan 2008 (1,161 horses), Flat and jumps together. Strongest on firm going: 20.7% from 198. Weakest on soft going: 7.9% from 1,194.
- Who are Expect To Succeed's siblings?
- Out of Gwael (USA), Expect To Succeed (IRE) has 3 other produce in our archive, 2 of them winners. Most wins: Court Of Appeal (IRE) (2). The wins came over 1m1f–1m2½f. As at Oct 2026.