What is Roger Varian's strike rate?

Roger Varian has won 517 of 2,718 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 19% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Roger Varian do best at?

Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 30 wins from 120 runners (25%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Roger Varian?

Jack Mitchell, with 582 runners since 2022 — 21% of the total. That pairing has won 124 (21.3%).

Is Roger Varian in form?

In the last 14 days: 22 runners, 4 winners, a strike rate of 18.2%. That is in line with the baseline of 19% since 2022.

What is Roger Varian's Fair A/E?

0.97, from 2,704 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Roger Varian

2,718 runners in the last 5 seasons · 482 individual horses

As at 21 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 7.4% of 462 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 21 Oct 2026.

Last runner yesterday 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2011→)

from 1 Jan 2022

517–2,718

Wins / Runs

19%

Strike rate

n=2,718

1,193 (44%)

Placed

0.97

Fair A/E

n=2,704 · 0.84 incl. margin

−642.47

£1 level stake

n=2,718 at SP · −23.6%

£16.9m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

21.6%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 540 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 19% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.97).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,718 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 21 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Nov–Dec 41.2% when favourite Jack Mitchell: 21.3% from 582 Sends off the favourite in 26% of races

The read

It is weakest at Newbury (6.5% over 108 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a poor signal at 10% (n=40, Fair A/E 0.74). Jack Mitchell rides 21% of the entries and edges the yard's average (21.3% vs 19%, A/E 0.93). The record reads poorly on Heavy going — 2.3% over 43 runners, 16.7pts below the baseline. 189 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Qipco Champion Stakes at Ascot (Oct 2023, £737,230). The stable star of the record: Steps (IRE) — 9 wins from 48 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Nov–Dec.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 19% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

18.8%−0.2

n=533 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −172.20

New recruits · first run for the yard

14.3%−4.7

n=14 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −8.67

Debutants · first career start

15.9%−3.1

n=383 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −116.79

First-time headgear · true-first definition

14.6%−4.4

n=171 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −49.80

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

10%−9.0

n=40 · A/E 0.74 · £1 −15.55

When favourite

41.2%

n=716 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −57.56

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

14.9%−4.1

n=114 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −25.41

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

12.8%−6.2

n=436 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −94.44

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 19% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On Heavy going 2.3% vs 19% · n=43

At Newbury 6.5% vs 19% · n=108

With Cameron Noble 7.9% vs 19% · n=89

At Ascot 9.4% vs 19% · n=171

At Newmarket 9.2% vs 19% · n=87

At Newmarket 10.9% vs 19% · n=165

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 2,717 516 19% −644.72

NH Flat 1 1 100% +2.25

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 967 223 23.1% −131.95

Good 637 122 19.2% −134.77

Good to Firm 591 94 15.9% −244.69

Good to Soft 267 49 18.4% −17.80

Soft 206 26 12.6% −71.00

Heavy 43 1 2.3% −41.09

Firm 7 2 28.6% −1.17

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton (AW) 265 58 21.9% −64.20

Newcastle (AW) 181 44 24.3% +0.19

Ascot 171 16 9.4% −49.75

Newmarket 165 18 10.9% −49.87

Wolverhampton (AW) 154 37 24% +11.66

Lingfield (AW) 141 32 22.7% −10.07

Southwell (AW) 120 30 25% −36.76

Goodwood 118 13 11% −30.34

Newbury 108 7 6.5% −85.39

Chelmsford City (AW) 103 21 20.4% −32.77

Yarmouth 96 20 20.8% −24.27

Doncaster 92 18 19.6% −34.87

Newmarket 87 8 9.2% −47.30

Nottingham 80 20 25% +4.15

York 78 11 14.1% −21.63

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 755 181 24% −127.41

Class 4 749 147 19.6% −194.80

Class 1 435 55 12.6% −94.64

Class 2 423 56 13.2% −171.85

Class 3 290 70 24.1% −21.22

Class 6 64 8 12.5% −30.55

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 767 309 40.3% 1.09 −52.81

2nd–3rd fav 958 141 14.7% 0.79 −326.66

4th–6th fav 669 58 8.7% 1.00 −126.00

7th+ in betting 324 9 2.8% 0.74 −137.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Fantastic Fox (GB) 33 4 10 12 Oct 26

Greatgadian (GER) 28 3 9 4 Oct 24

Russet Gold (GB)then Kevin Ryan 24 2 7 3 Oct 25

Tyrrhenian Sea (IRE) 23 5 14 3 Apr 26

Warren Hill (IRE) 20 3 6 16 Feb 25

Orchard Keeper (IRE) 19 2 9 8 Oct 26

Bobby Bennu (IRE) 18 3 8 25 Sep 26

Charyn (IRE) 18 7 12 19 Oct 24

Bonkersinabundance (IRE) 18 2 4 2 May 24

Midnight's Dream (IRE)then Joseph Parr 17 2 7 31 Jan 26

Jabaara (IRE) 17 4 9 4 Oct 25

Indalo (IRE) 16 5 11 17 Oct 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 482 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 10 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 1 arrived from another yard in our archive; 59 had their first archived run for this yard.

18 have since run for another yard, most often for Tim Easterby (2); 42 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Steady

4 from 22 18.2% · −0.8pts vs baseline

Last 14 days18.2%

5-season base19%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

201924181520211919192223

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderJack Mitchell

21% of all rides
21.3% SR · A/E 0.93

RiderRWSR£1

Jack Mitchell 582 124 21.3% −66.67

David Egan 457 89 19.5% −80.11

Ray Dawson 453 90 19.9% −112.78

Silvestre De Sousa 203 43 21.2% −25.37

Aidan Keeley 134 21 15.7% −26.15

James Doyle 121 20 16.5% −65.11

Andrea Atzeni 93 16 17.2% −32.20

Cameron Noble 89 7 7.9% −54.02

Jim Crowley 77 17 22.1% −12.28

Jefferson Smith 48 5 10.4% −19.09

Raul Da Silva 40 6 15% −7.22

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2011→

1,608

Archived wins

189

Pattern / graded wins

£39.9m

Prize money

2022

Best season · 142 wins

King Of Steel (USA) — Qipco Champion Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Middle Distance) Ascot · Oct 2023 · Group 1

£737,230

Bayside Boy (IRE) — Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored By Qipco) (Group 1) (British Champions Mile) (Str) Ascot · Oct 2022 · Group 1

£655,709

Charyn (IRE) — Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored by Qipco) (Group 1) (British Champions Mile) (Str) Ascot · Oct 2024 · Group 1

£655,709

Notable horses

Steps (IRE) Defoe (IRE) Believe In Love (IRE) Charyn (IRE) Al Husn (IRE) Fantastic Fox (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Frankel (GB) 19.8% · 34–172

Progeny have won 18% of 7,499 runs since 2008 (875 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 12.3% from 324. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 12.4% from 267.

Lope De Vega (IRE) 20.8% · 31–149

Progeny have won 13.8% of 12,152 runs since 2008 (1,099 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.3% from 953.

Dark Angel (IRE) 23.3% · 30–129

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,878 runs since 2008 (1,594 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Kingman (GB) 18.2% · 20–110

Progeny have won 14.6% of 7,471 runs since 2008 (775 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 11.1% from 959. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 9.1% from 121.

Dubawi (IRE) 22.9% · 25–109

Progeny have won 18.4% of 12,936 runs since 2008 (1,520 horses). Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 9.8% from 429.

Siyouni (FR) 12.6% · 11–87

Progeny have won 13% of 8,321 runs since 2008 (975 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 9.3% from 454.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 8,377 · newest first

The latest 50 of 8,377 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 April 2011 to 20 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

20 Oct 26 Yarmouth Lady Magu (GB)J: Ross Coakley Gold And Silver Exchange Fillies' Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 11.5f · Soft · 8 ran 6th 11/2

19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Champion Again Ole (IRE)J: Jack Mitchell Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 5/1

17 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Palms Oasis (GB)J: Ross Coakley Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 2nd 100/30

17 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Always Happy (IRE)J: Sean Dylan Bowen Dance Through The Decades Christmas Parties Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8f · Standard · 8 ran 2nd 9/2

17 Oct 26 Ascot Indalo (IRE)J: Jack Mitchell Balmoral Handicap Stakes (sponsored By Qatar Racing)Class 2 · 8f · Good · 20 ran 2nd 16/1

16 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Model Yuko (GB)J: Sean Dylan Bowen Northumbria Leisure For Gaming Machines Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Standard · 11 ran 6th 10/1

16 Oct 26 Haydock Asheyra (IRE)J: Jack Mitchell Jill Wilcox Jones Memorial EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Heavy · 3 ran 3rd 6/4

16 Oct 26 Haydock Return To Unit (GB)J: Jack Mitchell M6Toll Road To Victory Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 3 · 8f · Heavy · 10 ran 2nd 9/1

15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Peel Park (IRE)J: Jack Mitchell Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 2nd 5/1

14 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Hayate (IRE)J: Jack Mitchell Unibet/British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard / Slow · 8 ran 1st 5/6F

14 Oct 26 Nottingham Knights Charge (IRE)J: Shane Foley Hospitality At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 10f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 1st 5/6F

14 Oct 26 Nottingham Intsaar (IRE)J: Sean Dylan Bowen EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 8.5f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 10th 50/1

13 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Zachary Hickes (GB)J: Jack Mitchell Stay At The Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 4 · 14f · Standard · 7 ran 1st 10/11F

12 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Fantastic Fox (GB)J: Ross Coakley Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier)Class 3 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 14 ran 4th 20/1

12 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Aqpan (IRE)J: Jack Mitchell Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier)Class 3 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 14 ran 2nd 4/1F

12 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Ravishing (IRE)J: Jack Mitchell Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard / Slow · 7 ran 4th 5/4F

11 Oct 26 Goodwood Wechaad (IRE)J: Ray Dawson Inkerman London Handicap StakesClass 2 · 8f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 7th 11/2

11 Oct 26 Goodwood Cornichon (FR)J: Ray Dawson Virgin Bet / British Ebf Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands A, B, C And D) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 2nd 5/2

10 Oct 26 Newmarket Rock Montreal (IRE)J: William Buick Emirates Autumn Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 8f · Good · 7 ran 1st 11/8F

09 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Watch Party (IRE)J: Ray Dawson Darley EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 2 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 7 ran 4th 5/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Roger Varian's strike rate?: Roger Varian has won 517 of 2,718 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 19% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Roger Varian do best at?: Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 30 wins from 120 runners (25%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Roger Varian?: Jack Mitchell, with 582 runners since 2022 — 21% of the total. That pairing has won 124 (21.3%).
Is Roger Varian in form?: In the last 14 days: 22 runners, 4 winners, a strike rate of 18.2%. That is in line with the baseline of 19% since 2022.
What is Roger Varian's Fair A/E?: 0.97, from 2,704 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.