Skip to content
Horse profile

Hard To Believe (IRE)

3yo gelding · Trainer Andrew Balding · Owner Jayar Investments Mrs L E Ramsden
by Make Believe (GB) out of Heat Of The Day (GB) (Raven's Pass)
6 runs · 5 courses · from Sep 2025
As at 8 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: GB, Ireland & France · 2005–present, updated daily
3 wins · Newmarket, Wolverhampton (AW) & Bath Last run 4 Jul 2026 · 3rd of 7 Last raced off OR 83
KTB Profile

Hard To Believe is a gelding who has won three of six starts. He won a Class 5 novice at Bath on good to soft in Oct 2025, a Class 4 restricted novice at Wolverhampton on standard in Mar 2026 and the Zyn Frontrunner Handicap, a Class 4 event over 1m2f – 1m4f on good at Newmarket in Jun 2026. He finished third of seven in a Class 2 handicap at Newmarket in Jul 2026 off a mark of 83, which was also his career-high mark.

Based on 6 archived runs · run-style from 6 commented runs since Sep 2025 · updated 8 Nov 2026

KTB Speed and Rating

KTB Speed

Best recent Speed 96 the best of the last 3 graded (A or B) runs · Newmarket, 4 Jul 2026

How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →

Flat 6 figures · best 96A · median 90
GoingRunsBestMedianSince 8 Nov 2025
Good288A862 runs · 88 / 86
Good to Firm1——1 run · —
Standard (AW)1——1 run · —
Good to Soft1———
Heavy1———
DistanceRunsBestMedianSince 8 Nov 2025
1m – 1m1f392C921 run · —
1m2f – 1m4f288A862 runs · 88 / 86
1m5f – 2m1——1 run · —

KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 6 figures from 6 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast

KTB Rating

Best recent KTB Rating 82A the best of the last 3 rated runs · Newmarket, 4 Jul 2026 Official rating 83 at the last run, 4 Jul 2026

What the horse achieved in each race, in pounds on the official-rating scale, from the weight carried, the lengths beaten and the race's own level solved across the archive — never the market, never the official rating as a starting point. The headline is the best of the horse's last three rated runs on that code — its best recent day. The KTB Rating on a racecard is a different reading of the same figures: the level the horse has been running to, an average of up to its last six runs with the latest counting most, so the two can differ. A, B or C on a run is how much known form was in that race. What this means →

Flat 6 figures · best 93B · median 81.5
GoingRunsBestMedianSince 8 Nov 2025
Good281B792 runs · 81 / 79
Good to Firm1——1 run · —
Standard (AW)1——1 run · —
Good to Soft1———
Heavy1———
DistanceRunsBestMedianSince 8 Nov 2025
1m – 1m1f393B871 run · —
1m2f – 1m4f281B792 runs · 81 / 79
1m5f – 2m1——1 run · —

KTB Rating v1 · batch 3 Oct 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 6 figures from 6 runs · as at 4 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast

Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.

Run style from 6 analysed runs since Sep 2025

  • Prominent 2 (33%) · 2 wins
  • Mid-division 2 (33%) · 0 wins
  • Held up 1 (17%) · 0 wins
  • Led 1 (17%) · 1 win

Pedigree intelligence

Sire
Make Believe (GB)

Progeny in our archive have won 11.1% of 3,628 runs since Apr 2019 (298 horses).

GoingRunsWinsSRvs sireThis horse
Firm5120%+8.9—
Good to Firm3424312.6%+1.50 from 1
Good8739911.3%+0.21 from 2
Good to Soft4385612.8%+1.71 from 1
Soft7057310.4%−0.7—
Heavy276259.1%−20 from 1
Standard (AW)98910510.6%−0.51 from 1
Distance (all codes)RunsWinsSRvs sireThis horse
Under 6f8178.6%−2.5—
6f – 7f8489511.2%+0.1—
1m – 1m1f1,05410810.2%−0.92 from 3
1m2f – 1m4f7959411.8%+0.71 from 2
1m5f – 2m5457313.4%+2.30 from 1
2m1f – 2m4f232229.5%−1.6—
2m5f – 3m6323.2%−7.9—
Over 3m10110%−1.1—

Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Apr 2019 · as at 7 Nov 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast

Dam
Heat Of The Day (GB) (Raven's Pass)

No other produce in our archive. It holds racing in Great Britain, Ireland and France from 2005, so siblings racing elsewhere won’t appear here.

Record by conditions

GoingRunsWinsSR£1
Good 2 1 50% +1.25
Good to Firm 1 0 0% −1.00
Standard (AW) 1 1 100% +0.67
Good to Soft 1 1 100% +0.91
Heavy 1 0 0% −1.00

ClassRunsWinsSR£1
Class 4 4 2 50% +0.92
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 5 1 1 100% +0.91

CourseRunsWinsSR£1
Newmarket 2 1 50% +1.25
York 1 0 0% −1.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 1 1 100% +0.67
Bath 1 1 100% +0.91
Salisbury 1 0 0% −1.00

DistanceRunsWinsSR£1
1m – 1m1f 3 2 67% +0.58
1m2f – 1m4f 2 1 50% +1.25
1m5f – 2m 1 0 0% −1.00

JockeyRunsWinsSR£1
Oisin Murphy 3 2 67% +0.58
Rob Hornby 2 1 50% +1.25
Jason Watson 1 0 0% −1.00

SeasonRunsWinsSR£1
2026 4 2 50% +0.92
2025 2 1 50% −0.09

Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.

Form

DateCourseRace PosBtn Wgt ORSpdKTB Jockey SP
2026 · 4 runs
04 Jul 26+15d Newmarket Betway Bet 10 Get 40 Handicap (GBBPlus Race) Class 2 · 1m6f · Good To Firm · 7 ran Settled at the back early - urged into contention with progress from 3f out - moved into third with 2f left - drifted left but stayed on to finish third without the speed to get closer 3/7 1½ 9-2 8396A82A Jason Watson 9/2
19 Jun 26+36d Newmarket Zyn Frontrunner Handicap (GBBPlus Race) Class 4 · 1m4f · Good · 6 ran Tracked the pace - urged forward 3f out - hit front approaching 2f and driven on - met a fresh bid but rallied - held on for the win 1/6 9-9 8088A81B Rob Hornby 9/4F
14 May 26+52d York Frank Whittle Partnership Handicap (GBBPlus Race) Class 4 · 1m4f · Good · 14 ran Settled in the pack - pressed for effort with 3f left - stayed on same gear from inside the final furlong - finished seventh 7/14 ½ 9-9 8084C77A Oisin Murphy 2/1F
23 Mar 26+165d Wolverhampton (AW) Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) Class 4 · 1m1½f · Standard · 5 ran Set off in front from the start - roused with a furlong left - stayed strong to the line for victory 1/5 9-7 7792C93B Oisin Murphy 4/6F
2025 · 2 runs
09 Oct 25+27d Bath BetWright Bet The Wright Way EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 1) Class 5 · 1m · Good To Soft · 10 ran Positioned behind pace on the outer - up to 3rd and travelling strongly 3f out - improved into 2nd inside final furlong - hit the front in the last 110 yards to win comfortably 1/10 9-5 —92A87A Oisin Murphy 10/11F
12 Sep 25 Salisbury Skytree Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) Class 4 · 1m · Heavy · 10 ran Settled in the pack early - urged forward with over 3f remaining - dropped away under pressure inside the final furlong - finished sixth well beaten 6/10 ½ 9-1 —73A56A Rob Hornby 10/1

Quick answers

How many races has Hard To Believe won?
Hard To Believe (IRE) won 3 of 6 archived starts between 2025 and 2026, a strike rate of 50%. Placed 3 times in total (50% of starts).
Who trains Hard To Believe?
Hard To Believe (IRE) is trained by Andrew Balding, who saddled the horse on its most recent run on 4 July 2026.
Who is Hard To Believe's sire?
Hard To Believe (IRE) is by Make Believe (GB) out of Heat Of The Day (GB), whose sire is Raven's Pass.
What is Hard To Believe's official rating?
The most recent official rating on record is 83, from the run on 4 July 2026. That is also the highest on record.
What is Hard To Believe's sire's record?
Make Believe (GB)'s progeny in our archive have won 11.1% of 3,628 runs since Apr 2019 (298 horses), Flat and jumps together.

Record shown from September 2025. Our archive holds racing in Great Britain, Ireland and France from January 2005. Any runs before that, or in other countries, are not in it. In-running comments are available from 2024 onward.