What is Jason Watson's strike rate?

Jason Watson has won 331 of 2,826 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 11.7% (as at 19 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Jason Watson do best at?

Brighton by strike rate: 25 wins from 136 rides (18.4%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Jason Watson ride most for?

David O'Meara, with 648 rides since 2022 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 66 (10.2%).

Is Jason Watson in form?

In the last 14 days: 24 rides, 3 winners, a strike rate of 12.5%. That is in line with the baseline of 11.7% since 2022.

What is Jason Watson's Fair A/E?

0.96, from 2,798 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Jason Watson

2,826 rides in the last 5 seasons · 1,518 individual horses

As at 19 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 3 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2017→)

from 1 Jan 2022

331–2,826

Wins / Runs

11.7%

Strike rate

n=2,826

918 (33%)

Placed

0.96

Fair A/E

n=2,798 · 0.82 incl. margin

−531.29

£1 level stake

n=2,826 at SP · −18.8%

£6.04m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

12.2%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 570 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 12% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.96). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 19% (303 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,826 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 19 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jul–Aug 33.4% when favourite David O'Meara: 10.2% from 648 LTO winners: 18.5% Rides the favourite in 12% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Salisbury (23.5%, n=34) and Brighton (18.4%, n=136) — all clear of the rider's 11.7% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 18.5% (n=303, Fair A/E 1.06), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 5.6% (n=284, Fair A/E 0.93). David O'Meara supplies 23% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (10.2%, A/E 0.87). 18 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot (Oct 2025, £655,709). Seasonally, the rider fires Jul–Aug.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11.7% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

9.9%−1.8

n=1,401 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −426.98

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

18.5%+6.8

n=303 · A/E 1.06 · £1 +38.09

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

10.4%−1.3

n=356 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −32.51

When favourite

33.4%

n=338 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −28.05

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.6%−6.1

n=284 · A/E 0.93 · £1 +45.10

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

6.7%−5.0

n=120 · A/E 0.85 · £1 +33.90

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Salisbury 23.5% vs 11.7% · n=34

On last-time-out winners 18.5% vs 11.7% · n=303

With debutants 5.4% vs 11.7% · n=223

At Brighton 18.4% vs 11.7% · n=136

With first-time headgear 4.7% vs 11.7% · n=107

With Ollie Sangster 2.8% vs 11.7% · n=36

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 1,201 141 11.7% −392.16

Good 558 49 8.8% −87.56

Good to Firm 529 82 15.5% −16.92

Good to Soft 266 24 9% −10.25

Soft 185 21 11.4% −8.90

Heavy 73 11 15.1% −15.16

Firm 14 3 21.4% −0.34

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton (AW) 288 23 8% −122.47

Lingfield (AW) 232 24 10.3% −83.78

Wolverhampton (AW) 229 33 14.4% −49.59

Southwell (AW) 213 29 13.6% −76.66

Brighton 136 25 18.4% −24.03

Chester 129 20 15.5% −21.53

Chelmsford City (AW) 126 15 11.9% −53.37

Newcastle (AW) 113 17 15% −6.29

Goodwood 98 12 12.2% +2.14

Newbury 92 5 5.4% −46.42

Bath 79 11 13.9% −6.89

Windsor 71 6 8.5% −34.00

Ascot 70 7 10% +168.70

Doncaster 69 3 4.3% −3.80

Haydock 68 7 10.3% +29.40

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 835 104 12.5% −190.41

Class 4 657 89 13.5% −55.18

Class 6 636 73 11.5% −219.35

Class 2 313 31 9.9% +34.88

Class 3 264 26 9.8% −134.13

Class 1 119 8 6.7% +34.90

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 382 123 32.2% 1.06 −31.48

2nd–3rd fav 743 115 15.5% 0.90 −188.71

4th–6th fav 922 68 7.4% 0.89 −254.00

7th+ in betting 779 25 3.2% 0.98 −57.10

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Grace Angel (GB) 19 4 8 10 Aug 25

Rhoscolyn (GB) 18 1 3 16 Oct 26

Alligator Alley (GB) 17 2 4 22 Oct 24

Moe's Legacy (GB) 15 4 8 8 Oct 26

Orbaan (GB) 15 1 3 25 Nov 25

Miss Dolly Rocker (GB) 13 3 6 8 Oct 26

Darkness (FR) 13 1 4 3 May 25

Five Ways (GB) 12 2 2 3 Oct 26

Valsharah (IRE) 12 0 5 7 Jul 26

Intervention (GB) 12 2 8 17 Jan 26

Pearl Eye (GB) 12 3 4 7 May 25

Cosmos Raj (GB) 12 3 4 27 Apr 25

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 1,518 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 6 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Steady

3 from 24 12.5% · +0.8pts vs baseline

Last 14 days12.5%

5-season base11.7%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

131218101291713117811

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardDavid O'Meara

23% of all rides
10.2% SR · A/E 0.87

TrainerRWSR£1

David O'Meara 648 66 10.2% −174.64

Andrew Balding 434 72 16.6% −55.20

Michael Appleby 204 26 12.7% −34.17

Charles Hills 190 31 16.3% +109.22

Tony Carroll 147 19 12.9% +23.29

Darryll Holland 135 19 14.1% +16.13

Gary & Josh Moore 49 4 8.2% −34.09

Hugo Palmer 46 6 13% +6.85

Ed Dunlop 40 3 7.5% −28.75

Ollie Sangster 36 1 2.8% −33.38

Ronald Harris 35 4 11.4% −0.05

Roger Teal 33 6 18.2% +26.88

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2017→

639

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£10.8m

Prize money

2018

Best season · 111 wins

Cicero's Gift (GB) — Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored By Qipco) (Group 1) (Str) Ascot · Oct 2025 · Group 1

£655,709

Quadrilateral (GB) — Bet365 Fillies' Mile (Group 1) Newmarket · Oct 2019 · Group 1

£321,829

Venetian Prince (GB) — 143rd Derby Italiano (No Geldings) (Turf) San Siro (ITY) · Jun 2026 · Group 2

£253,043

Notable horses

Grace Angel (GB) Moe's Legacy (GB) Mercers (GB) Archimento (GB) Barenboim (GB) Seinesational (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dark Angel (IRE) 11.2% · 11–98

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,868 runs since 2008 (1,594 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Kodiac (GB) 3% · 2–67

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,530 runs since 2008 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 252.

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 7.4% · 4–54

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,815 runs since 2008 (1,573 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 843.

Lope De Vega (IRE) 17% · 9–53

Progeny have won 13.8% of 12,145 runs since 2008 (1,099 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.3% from 953.

Churchill (IRE) 8% · 4–50

Progeny have won 11% of 4,776 runs since 2008 (458 horses).

Havana Grey (GB) 16.3% · 7–43

Progeny have won 13.3% of 4,525 runs since 2008 (415 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 16.3% from 104. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10.3% from 406.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 19 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 5,133 · newest first

The latest 50 of 5,133 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 22 February 2017 to 16 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

16 Oct 26 Haydock City Captain (GB)T: Harriet Bethell Weatherbys Stallion Book Handicap StakesClass 3 · 5f · Heavy · 14 ran 3rd 7/2

16 Oct 26 Haydock Rhoscolyn (GB)T: David O'Meara M6Toll Road To Victory Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 3 · 8f · Heavy · 10 ran 10th 11/1

15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Super Hit (FR)T: James Owen Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11f · Standard · 7 ran 3rd 7/2

15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) My Prerogative (GB)T: David Killahena & Graeme McPherson Follow @AtTheRaces On X Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 20/1

15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Jungle Ruler (IRE)T: Michael Appleby Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 5/2F

14 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Thunder Goddess (GB)T: Andrew Balding Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Fillies' Handicap Stakes (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 11f · Standard / Slow · 9 ran 4th 11/2

14 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Berkshire Whisper (IRE)T: Andrew Balding Unibet London Sprint Series Final Handicap Stakes (Series Final - Qualified Horses Only)Class 2 · 6f · Standard / Slow · 11 ran 7th 13/2

14 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Siwa Oasis (IRE)T: Charles Hills Racing TV Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 12 ran 1st 9/2

14 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Hidden Beyond (AUS)T: Charles Hills Juddmonte EBF Novice Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands A, B, C And D) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 5th 13/2

12 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Alpha Bella (GB)T: Adam Kirby Racing TV EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (Div II) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 11 ran 7th 100/1

11 Oct 26 Goodwood Crazee Icon (GB)T: Andrew Balding Inkerman London Handicap StakesClass 2 · 8f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 13th 9/1

11 Oct 26 Goodwood Cashinoroyale (FR)T: George Baker Irish Stallion Farms Ebf Nursery Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 4 · 9f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 7th 16/1

10 Oct 26 York Bulletin (IRE)T: Jonathan Portman Sky Bet Extra Places Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 14f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 6th 9/1

10 Oct 26 York Annaf (IRE)T: Michael Appleby Sky Bet Sprint Trophy Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap)Class 2 · 6f · Good To Soft · 21 ran 9th 18/1

10 Oct 26 York Grey Soul (IRE)T: Dan Horsford Sky Bet Peter Nolan Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8f · Soft · 20 ran 20th 50/1

09 Oct 26 York Baltic Fleet (IRE)T: Ian Williams William Hill Finale Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 2 · 14f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 8th 11/1

09 Oct 26 York Nakila Sun (GER)T: Andrew Balding British Ebf £100,000 Final (colts And Geldings)Class 2 · 7f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 1st 5/1

09 Oct 26 York Khafiz (IRE)T: Roger Fell William Hill Gold Weekend Autumn Mile Handicap StakesClass 3 · 8f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 12th 40/1

08 Oct 26 Bath Moe's Legacy (GB)T: Ronald Harris Mj Church Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5.5f · Good · 10 ran 8th 8/1

08 Oct 26 Bath Boy George (GB)T: Dominic Ffrench Davis Find My Hospitality Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 5 · 10f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 13/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Jason Watson's strike rate?: Jason Watson has won 331 of 2,826 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 11.7% (as at 19 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Jason Watson do best at?: Brighton by strike rate: 25 wins from 136 rides (18.4%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Jason Watson ride most for?: David O'Meara, with 648 rides since 2022 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 66 (10.2%).
Is Jason Watson in form?: In the last 14 days: 24 rides, 3 winners, a strike rate of 12.5%. That is in line with the baseline of 11.7% since 2022.
What is Jason Watson's Fair A/E?: 0.96, from 2,798 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.