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Horse profile

Secret Theory (IRE)

3yo gelding (at last run, Jul 2025) · Last trainer Charlie Appleby · Last owner Godolphin
by Dubawi (IRE) out of Mistrusting (IRE) (Shamardal)
4 runs · 3 courses · from Oct 2024
As at 5 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: GB, Ireland & France · 2005–present, updated daily
No run recorded since 12 Jul 2025 — 481 days ago. Our archive can't say whether the horse is still in training.
Last run Jul 2025 · 6th of 7 2 wins · Nottingham & Newmarket Last raced off OR 97
KTB Profile

Secret Theory won two of his four starts on turf, both at Class 2 level, with victories at 6f-7f on good to soft at Newmarket in Oct 2024 and at 1m-1m1f on good at Nottingham in Apr 2025. The Dubawi gelding, who reached an official rating of 97, finished 6 of 7 in the bet365 Mile Handicap at Newmarket in Jul 2025. He raced off his career-high mark of 97 on that occasion.

Based on 4 archived runs · run-style from 4 commented runs since Oct 2024 · updated 5 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance All wins at Class 2

KTB Speed and Rating

KTB Speed

Best recent Speed 104 the best of the last 3 graded (A or B) runs · Goodwood, 2 May 2025

How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →

Flat 4 figures · best 104A · median 81.5
GoingRunsBestMedianSince 5 Nov 2025
Good2104A94.5—
Good to Firm1———
Good to Soft1———
DistanceRunsBestMedianSince 5 Nov 2025
1m – 1m1f3104A85—
6f – 7f1———

KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 4 figures from 4 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast

KTB Rating

Best recent KTB Rating 101B the best of the last 3 rated runs · Nottingham, 12 Apr 2025 Official rating 97 at the last run, 12 Jul 2025

What the horse achieved in each race, in pounds on the official-rating scale, from the weight carried, the lengths beaten and the race's own level solved across the archive — never the market, never the official rating as a starting point. The headline is the best of the horse's last three rated runs on that code — its best recent day. The KTB Rating on a racecard is a different reading of the same figures: the level the horse has been running to, an average of up to its last six runs with the latest counting most, so the two can differ. A, B or C on a run is how much known form was in that race. What this means →

Flat 4 figures · best 104A · median 96
GoingRunsBestMedianSince 5 Nov 2025
Good2101B96—
Good to Firm1———
Good to Soft1———
DistanceRunsBestMedianSince 5 Nov 2025
1m – 1m1f3101B91—
6f – 7f1———

KTB Rating v1 · batch 3 Oct 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 4 figures from 4 runs · as at 4 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast

Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.

Run style from 4 analysed runs since Oct 2024

  • Held up 3 (75%) · 1 win
  • Prominent 1 (25%) · 1 win

Pedigree intelligence

Sire
Dubawi (IRE)

Progeny in our archive have won 18.4% of 12,980 runs since Apr 2009 (1,530 horses).

Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 9.8% from 429.

GoingRunsWinsSRvs sireThis horse
Firm481122.9%+4.5—
Good to Firm2,32347720.5%+2.10 from 1
Good3,16756417.8%−0.61 from 2
Good to Soft1,74931117.8%−0.61 from 1
Soft1,91632917.2%−1.2—
Heavy59810317.2%−1.2—
Standard (AW)3,17758618.4%0—
Distance (all codes)RunsWinsSRvs sireThis horse
Under 6f429429.8%−8.6—
6f – 7f3,12858118.6%+0.21 from 1
1m – 1m1f3,87172718.8%+0.41 from 3
1m2f – 1m4f3,83877120.1%+1.7—
1m5f – 2m1,21018915.6%−2.8—
2m1f – 2m4f3344814.4%−4—
2m5f – 3m1381913.8%−4.6—
Over 3m32618.8%+0.4—

Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Apr 2009 · as at 5 Nov 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast

Dam
Mistrusting (IRE) (Shamardal)

5 siblings in the archive, 4 winners — best of them Althiqa (GB) (3 wins).

The wins came over 5f–1m; the highest grade won is Group 3 (Mysterious Night (IRE)).

ProduceRunsWinsWin tripsBest grade
Althiqa (GB)735f–7fListed
Star Of Mystery (GB)526fListed
Mysterious Night (IRE)726½f–7fGroup 3
Magical Land (IRE)711mClass 4
Before Dawn (IRE)120——

Record by conditions

GoingRunsWinsSR£1
Good 2 1 50% +0.25
Good to Firm 1 0 0% −1.00
Good to Soft 1 1 100% +2.25

CourseRunsWinsSR£1
Newmarket 2 1 50% +1.25
Goodwood 1 0 0% −1.00
Nottingham 1 1 100% +1.25

DistanceRunsWinsSR£1
1m – 1m1f 3 1 33% −0.75
6f – 7f 1 1 100% +2.25

JockeyRunsWinsSR£1
James Doyle 1 0 0% −1.00
Jim Crowley 1 0 0% −1.00
Billy Loughnane 1 1 100% +1.25
William Buick 1 1 100% +2.25

HeadgearRunsWinsSR£1
None 2 1 50% +1.25
Hood 2 1 50% +0.25

SeasonRunsWinsSR£1
2025 3 1 33% −0.75
2024 1 1 100% +2.25

Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.

Form

DateCourseRace PosBtn Wgt ORSpdKTB Jockey SP
2025 · 3 runs
12 Jul 25+71d Newmarket bet365 Mile Handicap Class 2 · 1m · Good To Firm · 7 ran Slow to break - settled towards the back - unable to land a blow through the race - finished sixth beaten just over 10 lengths 6/7 3 9-6 9777A77A James Doyle 7/2
02 May 25+20d Goodwood British Stallion Studs John Dunlop EBF Conditions Stakes (GBB Race) Class 2 · 1m · Good · 6 ran Slow to break - settled towards the back - shaken up with 3f left - stayed held off finish 5/6 ½ 9-6 97104A91B Jim Crowley 7/4F
12 Apr 25+189d Nottingham British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race) Class 2 · 1m½f · Good · 5 ran Settled at the rear early - made steady progress into contention approaching 2f out and hit the front inside the final furlong - stayed on strongly to win 1/5 9-8 —85C101B Billy Loughnane 5/4F
2024 · 1 run
05 Oct 24 Newmarket Virgin Bet Best Odds Daily Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) Class 2 · 7f · Good To Soft · 12 ran Sat behind front pair early - driven up to challenge inside final furlong - moved right approaching the last furlong - edged in front close home - stayed on to assert - won as the pace demanded 1/12 9-7 —78A104A William Buick 9/4

Quick answers

How many races has Secret Theory won?
Secret Theory (IRE) won 2 of 4 archived starts between 2024 and 2025, a strike rate of 50%. Placed 2 times in total (50% of starts).
Who trained Secret Theory?
Secret Theory (IRE) was trained by Charlie Appleby on the most recent run on record, at Newmarket on 12 July 2025.
Who is Secret Theory's sire?
Secret Theory (IRE) is by Dubawi (IRE) out of Mistrusting (IRE), whose sire is Shamardal.
What is Secret Theory's official rating?
The most recent official rating on record is 97, from the run on 12 July 2025. That is also the highest on record.
What is Secret Theory's sire's record?
Dubawi (IRE)'s progeny in our archive have won 18.4% of 12,980 runs since Apr 2009 (1,530 horses), Flat and jumps together. Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 9.8% from 429.
Who are Secret Theory's siblings?
Out of Mistrusting (IRE), Secret Theory (IRE) has 5 other produce in our archive, 4 of them winners. Most wins: Althiqa (GB) (3). Highest grade won: Group 3 (Mysterious Night (IRE)). The wins came over 5f–1m. As at Nov 2026.

Record shown from October 2024. Our archive holds racing in Great Britain, Ireland and France from January 2005. Any runs before that, or in other countries, are not in it. In-running comments are available from 2024 onward.