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Horse profile

Sure To Be Sure (IRE)

6yo gelding · Trainer Helen Nelmes · Owner K A Nelmes
by Affinisea (IRE) out of Burnt Out (IRE) (Anshan)
6 runs · 4 courses · from Oct 2024
As at 5 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: GB, Ireland & France · 2005–present, updated daily
Last run 1 Apr 2026 · 5th of 5
KTB Profile

Sure To Be Sure is a gelding by Affinisea out of Burnt Out who is yet to win from six starts on turf. He showed his best effort when third of three at Exeter in Nov 2024. All six runs came without a placing, over trips between 1m5f and 3m on good, soft or heavy ground at four different courses. He finished last of five when held in the Bath & West Novices' Hurdle at Wincanton in Apr 2026.

Based on 6 archived runs · run-style from 5 commented runs since Oct 2024 · updated 5 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Typically mid-division

KTB Speed and Rating

KTB Speed

Best recent Speed 94 the best of the last 1 graded (A or B) run · Fontwell, 23 Feb 2025

How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →

Jumps 4 figures · best 94B · median 68
GoingRunsBestMedianSince 5 Nov 2025
Good275C661 run · —
Soft1———
Heavy1———
DistanceRunsBestMedianSince 5 Nov 2025
2m1f – 2m4f294B77.5—
2m5f – 3m1——1 run · —
1m5f – 2m1———

Of 6 runs looked at, 2 have no figure: did not complete (2).

KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 4 figures from 6 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast

KTB Rating

Best recent KTB Rating 96A the best of the last 3 rated runs · Fontwell, 23 Feb 2025

What the horse achieved in each race, in pounds on the official-rating scale, from the weight carried, the lengths beaten and the race's own level solved across the archive — never the market, never the official rating as a starting point. The headline is the best of the horse's last three rated runs on that code — its best recent day. The KTB Rating on a racecard is a different reading of the same figures: the level the horse has been running to, an average of up to its last six runs with the latest counting most, so the two can differ. A, B or C on a run is how much known form was in that race. What this means →

Jumps 4 figures · best 104C · median 94.5
GoingRunsBestMedianSince 5 Nov 2025
Good293C911 run · —
Soft1———
Heavy1———
DistanceRunsBestMedianSince 5 Nov 2025
2m1f – 2m4f2104C100—
2m5f – 3m1——1 run · —
1m5f – 2m1———

Of 6 runs looked at, 2 have no figure: did not complete (or a non-runner row) (2).

KTB Rating v1 · batch 3 Oct 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 4 figures from 6 runs · as at 4 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast

Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.

Run style from 5 analysed runs since Oct 2024

  • Mid-division 3 (60%) · 0 wins
  • Held up 1 (20%) · 0 wins
  • Prominent 1 (20%) · 0 wins

Pedigree intelligence

Sire
Affinisea (IRE)

Progeny in our archive have won 13.2% of 1,286 runs since Feb 2022 (204 horses).

GoingRunsWinsSRvs sireThis horse
Good to Firm8225%+11.8—
Good4625912.8%−0.40 from 4
Good to Soft3314513.6%+0.4—
Soft3474713.5%+0.30 from 1
Heavy1361712.5%−0.70 from 1
Standard (AW)200%−13.2—
Distance (all codes)RunsWinsSRvs sireThis horse
1m2f – 1m4f8225%+11.8—
1m5f – 2m4765411.3%−1.90 from 2
2m1f – 2m4f5547613.7%+0.50 from 2
2m5f – 3m2133215%+1.80 from 2
Over 3m35617.1%+3.9—

Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Feb 2022 · as at 5 Nov 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast

Dam
Burnt Out (IRE) (Anshan)

5 siblings in the archive, 3 winners — best of them Miss Serious (IRE) (4 wins).

The wins came over 2m–3m2f; the highest grade won is Listed (Gaillimh A Chroi (IRE)).

ProduceRunsWinsWin tripsBest grade
Miss Serious (IRE)2342m5½f–3m2fClass 3
Gaillimh A Chroi (IRE)322m–2m1fListed
Vipers Nest (IRE)812m5f—
Minella Fifty (IRE)90——
Little Missserious (IRE)50——

Record by conditions

GoingRunsWinsSR£1
Good 4 0 0% −4.00
Soft 1 0 0% −1.00
Heavy 1 0 0% −1.00

ClassRunsWinsSR£1
Class 4 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 5 3 0 0% −3.00

CourseRunsWinsSR£1
Wincanton 2 0 0% −2.00
Newton Abbot 2 0 0% −2.00
Fontwell 1 0 0% −1.00
Exeter 1 0 0% −1.00

DistanceRunsWinsSR£1
2m5f – 3m 2 0 0% −2.00
1m5f – 2m 2 0 0% −2.00
2m1f – 2m4f 2 0 0% −2.00

JockeyRunsWinsSR£1
Paul O'Brien 3 0 0% −3.00
Charlie Price 1 0 0% −1.00
Brendan Powell 1 0 0% −1.00
Lorcan Murtagh 1 0 0% −1.00

SeasonRunsWinsSR£1
2026 1 0 0% −1.00
2025 3 0 0% −3.00
2024 2 0 0% −2.00

TypeRunsWinsSR£1
Hurdle 3 0 0% −3.00
NH Flat 3 0 0% −3.00

Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.

Form

DateCourseRace PosBtn Wgt SpdKTB Jockey SP
2026 · 1 run
01 Apr 26+281d Wincanton Bath & West Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) Class 4 · 2m5½f · Good · 5 ran Jumped ragged and held up early - never on terms with the pack - dropped well adrift before 3 out - finished well held 5/5 59 11-5 57C93C Charlie Price 300/1
2025 · 3 runs
24 Jun 25+85d Newton Abbot Happy 80th Birthday June O'Dwyer Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) Class 4 · 2m5½f · Good · 7 ran Struggled with fences from the start - held towards the back of the field - still detached by the 6th - eased out of contention approaching the second-last PU/7 — 11-1 —— Paul O'Brien 125/1
31 Mar 25+36d Wincanton Cheese & Cider Night 16th April Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) Class 4 · 1m7f · Good · 5 ran Settled in 4th early - blundered after the 4th fence and eased to a halt soon after - rider dismounted PU/5 — 11-5 —— Paul O'Brien 100/1
23 Feb 25+97d Fontwell starsportsbet.co.uk Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race) Class 5 · 2m1½f · Soft · 7 ran Settled in 5th early - improved into 4th with 5f left - dropped away into 5th inside the final furlong 5/7 8½ 11-7 94B96A Brendan Powell 100/1
2024 · 2 runs
18 Nov 24+19d Exeter DragonBet - Home Of The DragonBoost Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race) Class 5 · 2m½f · Good · 3 ran Settled off the pace early - urged forward but couldn't gain ground 4f out - finished third 3/3 48 11-2 75C89C Lorcan Murtagh 28/1
30 Oct 24 Newton Abbot 2024 Season Finale Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race) Class 5 · 2m1f · Heavy · 10 ran Settled in the pack - urged forward with 5f remaining - dropped away soon after - well held at the finish 10/10 30 11-1 61C104C Paul O'Brien 66/1

Quick answers

How many races has Sure To Be Sure won?
Sure To Be Sure (IRE) has yet to win, from 6 archived starts between 2024 and 2026.
Who trains Sure To Be Sure?
Sure To Be Sure (IRE) is trained by Helen Nelmes, who saddled the horse on its most recent run on 1 April 2026.
Who is Sure To Be Sure's sire?
Sure To Be Sure (IRE) is by Affinisea (IRE) out of Burnt Out (IRE), whose sire is Anshan.
What is Sure To Be Sure's sire's record?
Affinisea (IRE)'s progeny in our archive have won 13.2% of 1,286 runs since Feb 2022 (204 horses), Flat and jumps together.
Who are Sure To Be Sure's siblings?
Out of Burnt Out (IRE), Sure To Be Sure (IRE) has 5 other produce in our archive, 3 of them winners. Most wins: Miss Serious (IRE) (4). Highest grade won: Listed (Gaillimh A Chroi (IRE)). The wins came over 2m–3m2f. As at Nov 2026.

Record shown from October 2024. Our archive holds racing in Great Britain, Ireland and France from January 2005. Any runs before that, or in other countries, are not in it. In-running comments are available from 2024 onward.