What is Paul O'Brien's strike rate?

Paul O'Brien has won 190 of 1,205 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 15.8% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Paul O'Brien do best at?

Huntingdon by strike rate: 15 wins from 61 rides (24.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Paul O'Brien ride most for?

Harry Derham, with 580 rides since 2022 — 48% of the total. That pairing has won 129 (22.2%).

Is Paul O'Brien in form?

In the last 14 days: 22 rides, 3 winners, a strike rate of 13.6%. That is in line with the baseline of 15.8% since 2022.

What is Paul O'Brien's Fair A/E?

1.05, from 1,204 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Paul O'Brien

1,205 rides in the last 5 seasons · 430 individual horses

As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride yesterday 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2012→)

from 1 Jan 2022

190–1,205

Wins / Runs

15.8%

Strike rate

n=1,205

429 (36%)

Placed

1.05

Fair A/E

n=1,204 · 0.92 incl. margin

−260.78

£1 level stake

n=1,205 at SP · −21.6%

£2.49m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

13.9%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 240 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 16% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.05). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 24% (189 rides). Rides mostly for Harry Derham — 48% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 1,205 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 4 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 17.7% 42.6% when favourite Harry Derham: 22.2% from 580 LTO winners: 23.8% Rides the favourite in 16% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Stratford (30%, n=30) and Huntingdon (24.6%, n=61) — all clear of the rider's 15.8% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 23.8% (n=189, Fair A/E 1.03), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 2.7% (n=149, Fair A/E 0.43). Harry Derham supplies 48% of the rides and beats the rider's average (22.2% vs 15.8%, A/E 1.09) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. 9 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Betfair Exchange Trophy at Ascot (Dec 2023, £85,425). The standout partner of the record: Jamacho (GB) — 6 wins from 12 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 15.8% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

13.8%−2.0

n=399 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −46.19

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

23.8%+8.0

n=189 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −29.49

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

17.7%+1.9

n=322 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −29.01

When favourite

42.6%

n=188 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −1.32

Big fields · 14+ runners

2.7%−13.1

n=149 · A/E 0.43 · £1 −112.50

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

11.1%−4.7

n=54 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −23.59

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 15.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With new recruits 29.2% vs 15.8% · n=96

At Stratford 30% vs 15.8% · n=30

With Helen Nelmes 3.8% vs 15.8% · n=53

On last-time-out winners 23.8% vs 15.8% · n=189

With Harry Derham 22.2% vs 15.8% · n=580

At Huntingdon 24.6% vs 15.8% · n=61

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 778 121 15.6% −180.10

Chase 333 60 18% −38.43

NH Flat 93 9 9.7% −41.25

Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 461 86 18.7% −50.38

Good to Soft 380 56 14.7% −65.42

Soft 292 37 12.7% −123.42

Heavy 58 9 15.5% −23.92

Good to Firm 14 2 14.3% +2.36

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newbury 65 6 9.2% −16.63

Chepstow 62 7 11.3% −38.39

Huntingdon 61 15 24.6% +14.63

Wincanton 59 10 16.9% +23.25

Doncaster 54 8 14.8% −24.91

Southwell 50 7 14% −17.62

Kempton 49 9 18.4% −15.88

Market Rasen 48 9 18.8% −15.62

Worcester 47 6 12.8% +14.00

Fontwell 46 5 10.9% −18.75

Taunton 45 3 6.7% −25.50

Exeter 43 4 9.3% −28.33

Uttoxeter 41 4 9.8% −15.64

Plumpton 38 6 15.8% −19.04

Hereford 37 6 16.2% −17.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 553 102 18.4% −65.48

Class 5 271 36 13.3% −83.31

Class 3 207 29 14% −74.77

Class 2 91 16 17.6% +9.87

Class 1 80 7 8.8% −44.09

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 210 83 39.5% 1.08 −14.19

2nd–3rd fav 349 67 19.2% 1.00 −66.59

4th–6th fav 380 27 7.1% 0.93 −131.00

7th+ in betting 266 13 4.9% 1.71 −49.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

88.4% completed · 1,111 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 333 84.7% 15 8 27 0 1

Hurdle 778 90% 7 6 61 2 2

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

William Cody (GB) 23 3 11 7 May 26

Almazhar Garde (FR) 19 4 11 21 Mar 26

Mixedwave (IRE) 18 3 10 27 Mar 26

Xcitations (GB) 15 4 6 24 Feb 26

Shared (GB) 14 3 5 11 Oct 25

Dargiannini (IRE) 13 4 5 25 Apr 26

Rumoursareflying (GB) 13 2 5 19 Mar 26

Brentford Hope (GB) 13 3 6 24 Jan 26

Zestful Hope (FR) 13 2 4 23 Nov 25

Jasmine Bliss (GB) 12 5 7 14 Apr 26

Fourofakind (IRE) 12 2 7 30 Jun 24

Teddy Blue (GER) 11 2 3 31 Oct 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 430 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Steady

3 from 22 13.6% · −2.2pts vs baseline

Last 14 days13.6%

5-season base15.8%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

12161915162511339151416

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardHarry Derham

48% of all rides
22.2% SR · A/E 1.09

TrainerRWSR£1

Harry Derham 580 129 22.2% −25.76

Pam Sly 120 13 10.8% −69.42

Charlie Longsdon 115 16 13.9% −0.29

Helen Nelmes 53 2 3.8% −39.50

Nicky Henderson 50 5 10% −27.59

Henrietta C Knight 47 4 8.5% −26.73

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2012→

271

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£3.40m

Prize money

2025

Best season · 63 wins

Luccia (GB) — Betfair Exchange Trophy (Premier Handicap Hurdle) (GBB Race) Ascot · Dec 2023 · Class 1

£85,425

Washington (GB) — Bar One Racing '100% Football Acca Boost On Self Service Betting Terminals' Handicap Hurdle (Listed) Fairyhouse · Dec 2024 · Listed

£59,000

One Horse Town (IRE) — JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (Registered As The Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Nov 2025 · Grade 2

£47,552

Notable horses

Jamacho (GB) Fanzio (FR) Almazhar Garde (FR) Xcitations (GB) Jasmine Bliss (GB) Givemefive (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Westerner (GB) 25% · 12–48

Progeny have won 12.1% of 11,853 runs since 2009 (943 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.

Blue Bresil (FR) 19.5% · 8–41

Progeny have won 12.2% of 3,529 runs since 2013 (461 horses).

Universal (IRE) 15% · 6–40

Progeny have won 11% of 975 runs since 2017 (89 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 15.3% from 137. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 7.9% from 189.

Diamond Boy (FR) 20% · 7–35

Progeny have won 12% of 2,291 runs since 2016 (287 horses).

Soldier of Fortune (IRE) 20% · 6–30

Progeny have won 11.3% of 5,873 runs since 2013 (684 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 336. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.2% from 249.

Walk In The Park (IRE) 13.3% · 4–30

Progeny have won 13.3% of 7,024 runs since 2011 (703 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,113 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,113 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 20 August 2012 to 3 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

03 Nov 26 Lingfield Poets Pearl (IRE)T: Harry Derham Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 6th 33/1

02 Nov 26 Southwell Backwaters (FR)T: Harry Derham Southwell Racecourse Conference And Events Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 2 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 9th 11/2

01 Nov 26 Worcester Kiwi Rush (IRE)T: Harry Derham Copybet Pay First Past The Post Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran F 15/2

01 Nov 26 Worcester The Burren Man (GB)T: Harry Derham Copybet Support Safer Gambling Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 20f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 11th 6/1

01 Nov 26 Worcester Lasko Des Obeaux (FR)T: Harry Derham Copybet For Premier League Profit Boosts Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 7th 14/1

31 Oct 26 Ascot Shane's Spirit (IRE)T: Mickey Bowen Ascot Colts And Fillies' Club Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 15.5f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 6th 9/1

31 Oct 26 Ascot Teddy Blue (GER)T: Harry Derham Sodexo Live! Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 2 · 17f · Good · 11 ran 8th 10/1

30 Oct 26 Wetherby Pass The Buck (IRE)T: Harry Derham Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle Race (Listed Race) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 5th 11/1

30 Oct 26 Wetherby Washington (GB)T: Harry Derham Bet365 Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 19.5f · Good · 4 ran 1st 13/8F

29 Oct 26 Stratford Yanka Blue (IRE)T: Barry Murphy Blaze A Trail Stratford Hat-Trick Hero Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 18.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 9th 17/2

29 Oct 26 Stratford King Rolo (GB)T: Harry Derham EBF And Charlie Longsdon Racing 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle Race (Qualifier) (Div II) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 8th 50/1

29 Oct 26 Stratford Red Metal (FR)T: Henrietta C Knight EBF And Charlie Longsdon Racing 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle Race (Qualifier) (Div I) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 1st 13/8F

29 Oct 26 Stratford Rosie Mahler (IRE)T: Harry Derham 4 X 4 Tyres Mares' Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 22f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 2nd 15/2

28 Oct 26 Huntingdon Kauto Line (FR)T: Harry Derham Advertise At Huntingdon Racecourse Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 6th 6/1

28 Oct 26 Huntingdon Gallivanted (FR)T: Harry Derham Host Your Conference At Huntingdon Racecourse Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 5/2

27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee Liege Ardent (FR)T: Richard Hobson Overton Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 5th 8/1

27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee Air Apparent (IRE)T: Seamus Mullins Bangor-On-Dee Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 17.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 1st 10/1

26 Oct 26 Hereford Our Wee Horse (IRE)T: Harry Derham BETTING.BET Play Champion Tipster Juvenile Maiden Hurdle Race (Div II) (gbb Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 5th 5/6F

26 Oct 26 Hereford Jerseygeordie (GB)T: Harry Derham Betting.Bet Play Champion Tipster Juvenile Maiden Hurdle Race (Div I) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 3rd 1/1F

25 Oct 26 Market Rasen Ollierob (IRE)T: Harry Derham Book Boxing Day At Market Rasen Juvenile Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran PU 28/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 7 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 3 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 3 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · fastest on KTB Speed in 4 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · to 28 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Paul O'Brien's strike rate?: Paul O'Brien has won 190 of 1,205 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 15.8% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul O'Brien do best at?: Huntingdon by strike rate: 15 wins from 61 rides (24.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Paul O'Brien ride most for?: Harry Derham, with 580 rides since 2022 — 48% of the total. That pairing has won 129 (22.2%).
Is Paul O'Brien in form?: In the last 14 days: 22 rides, 3 winners, a strike rate of 13.6%. That is in line with the baseline of 15.8% since 2022.
What is Paul O'Brien's Fair A/E?: 1.05, from 1,204 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.