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Trainer profile

Helen Nelmes

149 runners in the last 5 seasons · 16 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 5 days ago 100% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2022
5–149
Wins / Runs
3.4%
Strike rate
n=149
19 (13%)
Placed
0.75
Fair A/E
n=149 · 0.64 incl. margin
−90.50
£1 level stake
n=149 at SP · −60.7%
£71,307
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
5%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.75).

Deterministic profile computed from 149 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 4.8% Paul O'Brien: 3.8% from 53
The read

It is weakest at Newton Abbot (0% over 38 runners) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. Runners with a claiming rider up have been a poor signal at 0% (n=39, Fair A/E 0.00). Paul O'Brien rides 36% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (3.8%, A/E 0.86). The yard also reads well on Good to Soft going (7.5%, n=40) and in Chase races (7.1%, n=42). The record reads poorly off a 15-30-day break — 0% over 42 runners, 3.4pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4.8%+1.4
n=42 · A/E 1.94 · £1 −5.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−3.4
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−3.4
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−3.4
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−3.4
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
When favourite
0%
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−3.4
n=39 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −39.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Good to Soft going 7.5% vs 3.4% · n=40
In Chase races 7.1% vs 3.4% · n=42
Off a 15-30-day break 0% vs 3.4% · n=42
With claiming riders up 0% vs 3.4% · n=39
At Newton Abbot 0% vs 3.4% · n=38
With Charlie Price 0% vs 3.4% · n=33
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 98 2 2% −84.50
Chase 42 3 7.1% +3.00
NH Flat 9 0 0% −9.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 73 1 1.4% −66.00
Good to Soft 40 3 7.5% +3.50
Soft 23 0 0% −23.00
Heavy 11 1 9.1% −3.00
Good to Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Newton Abbot 38 0 0% −38.00
Exeter 36 1 2.8% −10.00
Fontwell 29 1 3.4% −21.00
Wincanton 21 3 14.3% +3.50
Taunton 17 0 0% −17.00
Hereford 4 0 0% −4.00
Sandown 2 0 0% −2.00
Uttoxeter 1 0 0% −1.00
Ascot 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 77 3 3.9% −32.00
Class 4 62 2 3.2% −48.50
Class 3 10 0 0% −10.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 2 0 0% 0.00 −2.00
2nd–3rd fav 12 1 8.3% 0.78 −5.00
4th–6th fav 51 3 5.9% 1.00 −25.50
7th+ in betting 84 1 1.2% 0.51 −58.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
75% completed · 140 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 42 69% 0 0 12 1 0
Hurdle 98 77.6% 1 0 21 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Universal Secret (IRE)from E Sheehy 29 3 8 16 May 26
Wellwillya (GB) 23 2 5 10 Jun 26
I Love You Sivola (FR)from Yannick Fouin · then Max Comley 22 0 1 14 Apr 26
Wearapinkribbon (IRE)from W P Mullins · then Max Comley 19 0 1 19 Dec 24
Hawa Jumeirah (GB)from Robbie Llewellyn 9 0 1 15 Oct 26
Menapian (IRE)from Liz Doyle 9 0 2 20 Nov 23
Sure To Be Sure (IRE) 6 0 0 1 Apr 26
Royal Juniper (IRE)from A J Martin 6 0 1 10 Oct 24
Merchant In Milan (IRE) 5 0 0 12 Feb 23
Oval Street (IRE)from Mark Gillard 4 0 0 4 Jul 25
Itsaboutime (IRE) 4 0 0 23 Jul 23
Penna Rossa (IRE)from Camilla Poulton · then Keiran Burke 3 0 0 21 Jul 24
All 16 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 16 horses listed, 9 arrived from another yard in our archive; 7 had their first archived run for this yard.

4 have since run for another yard, most often for Max Comley (2); 12 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0207000000800
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderPaul O'Brien
36% of all rides
3.8% SR · A/E 0.86
RiderRWSR£1
Paul O'Brien 53 2 3.8% −39.50
Charlie Price 33 0 0% −33.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
25
Archived wins
£220k
Prize money
2013
Best season · 4 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
The Clyda Rover (IRE) — Higos Insurance Services Devon National Handicap Chase Exeter · Mar 2013 · Class 3
£7,913
The Clyda Rover (IRE) — Higos Insurance Services Marathon Handicap Chase Exeter · Apr 2013 · Class 3
£6,330
Universal Secret (IRE) — CRS & IBMG Handicap Hurdle Wincanton · Mar 2023 · Class 4
£5,281
Notable horses
Universal Secret (IRE) Kristoffersen (GB) The Clyda Rover (IRE) Wild Power (GER) Wellwillya (GB) Kalmbeforethestorm (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Universal (IRE) 8.2% · 5–61
Progeny have won 11% of 971 runs since 2008 (89 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 15.3% from 137. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 8% from 188.
Le Fou (IRE) 0% · 0–22
Progeny have won 8.3% of 1,413 runs since 2008 (137 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 12.2% from 238.
Shantou (USA) 0% · 0–19
Progeny have won 13.6% of 7,819 runs since 2008 (539 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 20.3% from 158.
Touch Of Land (FR) 0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 7.5% of 681 runs since 2008 (44 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 3.9% from 178. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.3% from 188.
Affinisea (IRE) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 12.9% of 1,250 runs since 2008 (197 horses).
Doyen (IRE) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 11.5% of 7,349 runs since 2008 (605 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 639 · newest first

The latest 50 of 639 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 15 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
15 Oct 26 Fontwell Hawa Jumeirah (GB)J: Paul O'Brien BETTING.BET Play Champion Tipster Novices' Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 19f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 3rd 50/1
22 Sep 26 Fontwell Hawa Jumeirah (GB)J: Paul O'Brien Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 17.5f · Good · 9 ran 4th 13/2
22 Aug 26 Newton Abbot Hawa Jumeirah (GB)J: Paul O'Brien Torbay Weekly Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 18.5f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 6th 12/1
13 Jul 26 Newton Abbot Hawa Jumeirah (GB)J: Paul O'Brien Racing Club Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 18.5f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 3rd 12/1
03 Jul 26 Newton Abbot Hawa Jumeirah (GB)J: Paul O'Brien Sun Racing Free Tickets With Sun Club Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 18.5f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 12/1
10 Jun 26 Fontwell Wellwillya (GB)J: Paul O'Brien Sun Racing The Home Of Racing Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 19.5f · Good · 5 ran PU 15/2
03 Jun 26 Newton Abbot Hawa Jumeirah (GB)J: Charlie Price Westcountry Food Supplies Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 17f · Good · 12 ran 8th 25/1
16 May 26 Uttoxeter Universal Secret (IRE)J: Dylan Johnston QuinnBet Conditional Jockeys' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 21f · Good · 10 ran 4th 3/1F
06 May 26 Fontwell Wellwillya (GB)J: Paul O'Brien Summerley Recruitment Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 19.5f · Good · 8 ran 4th 8/1
06 May 26 Fontwell Hawa Jumeirah (GB)J: Paul O'Brien Mercedes-Benz Of Chichester Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17.5f · Good · 14 ran 5th 200/1
14 Apr 26 Newton Abbot I Love You Sivola (FR)J: Brendan Powell Tribute Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 26.5f · Good · 6 ran PU 16/1
09 Apr 26 Taunton Hawa Jumeirah (GB)J: Charlie Price Frodon & Black Corton At Taunton Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 7 ran 5th 200/1
01 Apr 26 Wincanton Universal Secret (IRE)J: Robert Dunne Bridles Care Home In Wincanton Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 3/1F
01 Apr 26 Wincanton Sure To Be Sure (IRE)J: Charlie Price Bath & West Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 21.5f · Good · 5 ran 5th 300/1
17 Mar 26 Exeter I Love You Sivola (FR)J: Charlie Price Oddschecker Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 23f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 9th 40/1
06 Mar 26 Exeter Wellwillya (GB)J: Paul O'Brien Klargester Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 19f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 2nd 14/1
25 Feb 26 Wincanton Universal Secret (IRE)J: Kielan Woods Cheltenham Preview 5th March At Wincanton Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 1st 10/1
25 Feb 26 Wincanton Hawa Jumeirah (GB)J: Kielan Woods Happy 18th Birthday James Dunford Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 15f · Good To Soft · 18 ran 11th 300/1
11 Jan 26 Fontwell I Love You Sivola (FR)J: Brendan Powell tigerbet.co.uk Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 26f · Soft · 11 ran 6th 22/1
09 Jan 26 Exeter Keepsoldieringon (IRE)J: Paul O'Brien PricedUp Supports British Racing Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran PU 200/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Helen Nelmes's strike rate?
Helen Nelmes has won 5 of 149 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 3.4% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Helen Nelmes do best at?
Exeter by strike rate: 1 wins from 36 runners (2.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Helen Nelmes?
Paul O'Brien, with 53 runners since 2022 — 36% of the total. That pairing has won 2 (3.8%).
Is Helen Nelmes in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Helen Nelmes's Fair A/E?
0.75, from 149 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).