Horse profile
Third Time Lucki (IRE)
by Arcadio (GER) out of Definite Valley (IRE) (Definite Article)
31 runs · 14 courses · from Nov 2019
As at 18 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: GB, Ireland & France · 2005–present, updated daily
11 wins · 9 courses
Off 358 days
Last raced off OR 137
KTB Profile
Third Time Lucki is 11 wins from 31 starts in our archive, including two Grade 2 wins. His biggest win came in the From The Horse's Mouth Podcast Novices' Chase at Cheltenham in Nov 2021. All wins have come on turf, with ten over 1m5f – 2m and one over 2m1f – 2m4f. He won twice at Uttoxeter and has two wins from ten starts at Cheltenham. His last run was at Cheltenham in Oct 2025 off an official rating of 137. He last won at Uttoxeter in Jun 2025.
Based on 31 archived runs · run-style from 5 commented runs · updated 18 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance
Typically held up
OR ↓ 16lb off peak
- 11–31Wins / Runs
- 35.5%Strike rate
- 14 (45.2%)Placed
- +2.24£1 level staken=31 at SP
- 1.39Fair A/E n=31 · 1.22 incl. margin
- 153Highest OR
- 73dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
Official rating137↓ 16lb off peak
137
124–153
KTB Speed and Rating
KTB Speed
Best recent Speed 88
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
Jumps
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 18 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Soft | 13 | 119B | 99 | — |
| Good | 9 | 111C | 77 | — |
| Soft | 6 | 130B | 99 | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 18 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m5f – 2m | 23 | 130B | 90 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 5 | 112B | 100 | — |
Of 31 runs looked at, 3 have no figure: obstacles omitted — the race ran a shortened course (2) · did not complete (1).
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 28 figures from 31 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style from 5 analysed runs
- Held up 3 (60%) · 0 wins
- Prominent 1 (20%) · 1 win
- Midfield 1 (20%) · 0 wins
Pedigree intelligence
Sire
Arcadio (GER)
Progeny in our archive have won 9.2% of 3,976 runs since Jan 2008 (375 horses).
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Firm | 63 | 6 | 9.5% | +0.3 | — |
| Good | 1,478 | 163 | 11% | +1.8 | 5 from 10 |
| Good to Soft | 789 | 68 | 8.6% | −0.6 | 4 from 14 |
| Soft | 1,153 | 93 | 8.1% | −1.1 | 2 from 6 |
| Heavy | 431 | 31 | 7.2% | −2 | 0 from 1 |
| Standard (AW) | 62 | 3 | 4.8% | −4.4 | — |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 2 | 0 | 0% | −9.2 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 6 | 0 | 0% | −9.2 | — |
| 1m – 1m1f | 6 | 0 | 0% | −9.2 | — |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 28 | 1 | 3.6% | −5.6 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 1,462 | 145 | 9.9% | +0.7 | 10 from 26 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 1,498 | 135 | 9% | −0.2 | 1 from 5 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 815 | 70 | 8.6% | −0.6 | — |
| Over 3m | 159 | 13 | 8.2% | −1 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 18 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
Dam
Definite Valley (IRE) (Definite Article)
1 sibling in the archive, 0 winners.
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canteeny Benny (IRE) | 10 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Soft | 14 | 4 | 29% | −3.44 |
| Good | 10 | 5 | 50% | +6.31 |
| Soft | 6 | 2 | 33% | +0.37 |
| Heavy | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 1 | 13 | 2 | 15% | −10.07 |
| Class 2 | 12 | 5 | 42% | +9.48 |
| Class 3 | 2 | 1 | 50% | −0.71 |
| Class 4 | 2 | 1 | 50% | −0.83 |
| Class 5 | 2 | 2 | 100% | +4.37 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham | 10 | 2 | 20% | −6.22 |
| Ascot | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Aintree | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Uttoxeter | 2 | 2 | 100% | +4.67 |
| Doncaster | 2 | 1 | 50% | −0.47 |
| Sandown | 2 | 1 | 50% | +4.00 |
| Warwick | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Bangor-on-Dee | 1 | 1 | 100% | +4.50 |
| Exeter | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Musselburgh | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Kempton | 1 | 1 | 100% | +1.10 |
| Wetherby | 1 | 1 | 100% | +0.29 |
| Huntingdon | 1 | 1 | 100% | +2.75 |
| Market Rasen | 1 | 1 | 100% | +1.62 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m5f – 2m | 26 | 10 | 38% | +1.74 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 5 | 1 | 20% | +0.50 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Skelton | 20 | 8 | 40% | −3.76 |
| Jonathan Burke | 7 | 2 | 29% | +4.00 |
| Kielan Woods | 2 | 1 | 50% | +4.00 |
| Jack Hogan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Bridget Andrews | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | 18 | 8 | 44% | −1.76 |
| Tongue tie | 13 | 3 | 23% | +4.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6 | 2 | 33% | +5.00 |
| 2024 | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| 2023 | 4 | 1 | 25% | +2.00 |
| 2022 | 5 | 1 | 20% | −3.47 |
| 2021 | 6 | 2 | 33% | −2.22 |
| 2020 | 6 | 4 | 67% | +2.31 |
| 2019 | 2 | 1 | 50% | +0.62 |
| Type | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase | 20 | 6 | 30% | +2.31 |
| Hurdle | 7 | 3 | 43% | −2.44 |
| NH Flat | 4 | 2 | 50% | +2.37 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct 25+117d | Cheltenham | squareintheair.com Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Positioned close to the front pack early - blundered at the 6th fence and withdrawn shortly after | PU/9 | — | 10-5 | 137 | — | — | Jonathan Burke | 14/1 |
| 29 Jun 25+43d | Uttoxeter | bet365 Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Tracked the pace in the early stages - jumped a touch untidily three out - lost a little momentum in second spot two out - roused and found more approaching the last - stayed on strongly to hit the front close home and score comfortably | 1/7 | 11-10 | 133 | 88B | 141B | Jonathan Burke | 9/2 | |
| 17 May 25+48d | Bangor-on-Dee | Shropshire County Show Grand Wynnstay Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Handy early under good power - hit the front 3 out - held rival's bid 2 out - kicked clear approaching last - eased clear on run-in - won comfortably | 1/5 | 10-13 | 124 | 111C | 132B | Jonathan Burke | 9/2 | |
| 30 Mar 25+18d | Ascot | LK Bennett Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Settled towards rear on the wide side - driven into contention entering the final bend but lost ground - unable to find more up the straight - finished 5th beaten 11½ lengths | 5/5 | 2½ | 11-8 | 129 | 52C | 117B | Jonathan Burke | 9/2 |
| 12 Mar 25+46d | Cheltenham | Debenhams Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) Held up at rear from the start - lost touch with the field through the middle stages - well beaten at the finish | 18/20 | 10 | 10-6 | 134 | 35C | 102C | Jonathan Burke | 28/1 |
| 25 Jan 25+42d | Doncaster | Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Went straight to front but jumped awkwardly 3rd - lost command 4th - back in charge 6th - knocked sideways 8th - moved off a straight line and stumbled 3 out - lost momentum before final two and dropped away | 5/7 | 29 | 11-0 | 138 | 67C | 98C | Jack Hogan | 14/1 |
| 14 Dec 24+27d | Cheltenham | BetMGM Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Held a midfield position - driven for effort before losing touch approaching 2 out - well held at the finish | 6/6 | 5 | 11-2 | 142 | 52A | 114B | Jonathan Burke | 16/1 |
| 17 Nov 24+584d | Cheltenham | Three Counties Christmas Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Held up early - stumbled and lost ground for a spell - made steady headway to close on the pack - moved into second turning for home but found nothing more approaching two out - inherited runner-up spot at the last | 2/4 | 26 | 11-8 | 145 | 44C | 123C | Jonathan Burke | 12/1 |
| 13 Apr 23+29d | Aintree | Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) | 9/13 | 12 | 12-0 | 148 | 65C | 105C | Harry Skelton | 10/3F |
| 15 Mar 23+39d | Cheltenham | Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) | 4/19 | 1½ | 11-8 | 149 | 46B | 143A | Harry Skelton | 8/1 |
| 04 Feb 23+21d | Sandown | Virgin Bet Dolos Handicap Chase (GBB Race) | 1/8 | 11-11 | 143 | 108A | 152B | Kielan Woods | 5/1 | |
| 14 Jan 23+56d | Warwick | Wigley Support Fund Edward Courage Cup Handicap Chase (GBB Race) | 3/4 | hd | 12-0 | 147 | — | 140B | Harry Skelton | 7/2 |
| 19 Nov 22+15d | Ascot | Jim Barry Wines Hurst Park Handicap Chase (GBB Race) | 6/7 | 7 | 11-4 | 151 | 70B | 126A | Kielan Woods | 14/1 |
| 04 Nov 22+209d | Exeter | Betway Haldon Gold Cup (Grade 2 Limited Handicap Chase) (GBB Race) | 4/5 | 7½ | 10-11 | 153 | 100C | 114B | Harry Skelton | 7/5F |
| 09 Apr 22+56d | Aintree | Poundland Maghull Novices' Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) | 3/6 | 11 | 11-4 | 153 | 66B | 136B | Harry Skelton | 9/2 |
| 12 Feb 22+14d | Warwick | Virgin Bet Kingmaker Novices' Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) | 2/4 | 4¼ | 11-5 | 153 | 103C | 138B | Harry Skelton | 2/1 |
| 29 Jan 22+56d | Doncaster | Watch Off The Fence On attheraces.com Lightning Novices' Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) | 1/3 | 11-5 | 152 | — | 150C | Harry Skelton | 8/15F | |
| 04 Dec 21+21d | Sandown | Close Brothers Henry VIII Novices' Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) | 3/7 | nse | 11-2 | 152 | 113B | 132B | Harry Skelton | 9/5F |
| 13 Nov 21+22d | Cheltenham | From The Horse's Mouth Podcast Novices' Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) | 1/4 | 11-5 | 150 | 82C | 150C | Harry Skelton | 2/5F | |
| 22 Oct 21+196d | Cheltenham | squareintheair.com Novices' Chase (GBB Race) | 1/5 | 11-2 | 143 | 77C | 148B | Harry Skelton | 11/8F | |
| 09 Apr 21+21d | Aintree | Betway Top Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) | 4/10 | 12 | 11-4 | 144 | 99A | 127A | Harry Skelton | 5/2J |
| 19 Mar 21+40d | Cheltenham | McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (GBB Race) | 6/25 | hd | 11-0 | 143 | 112B | 141A | Harry Skelton | 8/1 |
| 07 Feb 21+43d | Musselburgh | bet365 Scottish Supreme Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) | 4/7 | ½ | 11-6 | 144 | 90A | 128A | Harry Skelton | 10/11F |
| 26 Dec 20+41d | Kempton | Get Your Ladbrokes 1 Free Bet Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) | 1/6 | 11-8 | 140 | 96B | 144B | Harry Skelton | 11/10F | |
| 15 Nov 20+16d | Cheltenham | Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices' Hurdle (Registered As The Sharp Novices' Hurdle) (Grade 2) (GBB Race) | 2/6 | 3¾ | 11-0 | 129 | 107B | 142B | Harry Skelton | EvensF |
| 30 Oct 20+14d | Wetherby | bet365 Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) | 1/13 | 11-4 | — | 81B | 143A | Harry Skelton | 2/7F | |
| 16 Oct 20+219d | Uttoxeter | British EBF 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (Div 1) | 1/12 | 10-12 | — | 119B | 140A | Harry Skelton | 1/6F | |
| 11 Mar 20+47d | Cheltenham | Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1 Standard Open NH Flat Race) | 4/23 | nk | 11-5 | 127 | 105B | 151A | Harry Skelton | 16/1 |
| 24 Jan 20+50d | Huntingdon | Pertemps Network Standard Open NH Flat Race | 1/15 | 11-11 | — | 130B | 147A | Harry Skelton | 11/4F | |
| 05 Dec 19+33d | Market Rasen | MansionBet At Market Rasen Maiden Open NH Flat Race | 1/11 | 10-12 | — | 93A | 130A | Harry Skelton | 13/8F | |
| 02 Nov 19 | Ascot | Millgate Standard Open NH Flat Race | 3/16 | 2¼ | 11-0 | — | 115B | 126A | Bridget Andrews | 10/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Third Time Lucki (IRE) won?
- Third Time Lucki (IRE) won 11 of 31 archived starts between 2019 and 2025, a strike rate of 35.5%. Placed 14 times in total (45.2% of starts).
- Who trains Third Time Lucki (IRE)?
- Third Time Lucki (IRE) is trained by Fergal O'Brien, who saddled the horse on its most recent run on 24 October 2025.
- Who is Third Time Lucki (IRE)'s sire?
- Third Time Lucki (IRE) is by Arcadio (GER) out of Definite Valley (IRE), whose sire is Definite Article.
- What going does Third Time Lucki (IRE) prefer?
- Third Time Lucki (IRE) has the best record on good going: 5 wins from 10 starts (50%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Third Time Lucki (IRE)'s official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 137, from the run on 24 October 2025. The highest on record is 153.
- What is Third Time Lucki (IRE)'s sire's record?
- Arcadio (GER)'s progeny in our archive have won 9.2% of 3,976 runs since Jan 2008 (375 horses), Flat and jumps together.
- Who are Third Time Lucki (IRE)'s siblings?
- Out of Definite Valley (IRE), Third Time Lucki (IRE) has 1 other produce in our archive, 0 of them winners. As at Oct 2026.