What is Fergal O'Brien's strike rate?

Fergal O'Brien has won 492 of 3,063 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 16.1% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Fergal O'Brien do best at?

Huntingdon by strike rate: 39 wins from 155 runners (25.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Fergal O'Brien?

Jonathan Burke, with 574 runners since 2022 — 19% of the total. That pairing has won 88 (15.3%).

Is Fergal O'Brien in form?

In the last 14 days: 22 runners, 3 winners, a strike rate of 13.6%. That is in line with the baseline of 16.1% since 2022.

What is Fergal O'Brien's Fair A/E?

1.03, from 3,060 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Fergal O'Brien

3,063 runners in the last 5 seasons · 477 individual horses

As at 21 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 7.2% of 651 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 21 Oct 2026.

Last runner 3 days ago 94% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

492–3,063

Wins / Runs

16.1%

Strike rate

n=3,063

1,103 (36%)

Placed

1.03

Fair A/E

n=3,060 · 0.89 incl. margin

−649.02

£1 level stake

n=3,063 at SP · −21.2%

£5.99m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

13.2%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 610 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 16% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.03). Horses in first-time headgear strike at 19% (153 runs, true-first definition).

Deterministic profile computed from 3,063 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 21 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Apr–May 40.4% when favourite Jonathan Burke: 15.3% from 574 Sends off the favourite in 16% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Huntingdon (25.2%, n=155), clear of the yard's 16.1% baseline. A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a poor signal at 6% (n=67, Fair A/E 0.47). A horse in first-time headgear are the standout value angle: 19% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.36 and +3.52 to a £1 stake over 153 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The market has consistently overbet new recruits from other stables on their first run: 12.1% strike, Fair A/E 0.83 and −50.32 to a £1 stake over 165 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Jonathan Burke rides 19% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (15.3%, A/E 0.96). 47 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Howden Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot (Dec 2024, £71,188). The stable star of the record: Perfect Candidate (IRE) — 9 wins from 45 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Apr–May.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 16.1% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

13.5%−2.6

n=821 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −243.47

New recruits · first run for the yard

12.1%−4.0

n=165 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −50.32

Debutants · first career start

14.2%−1.9

n=183 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −54.46

First-time headgear · true-first definition

19%+2.9

n=153 · A/E 1.36 · £1 +3.52

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

6%−10.1

n=67 · A/E 0.47 · £1 −45.65

When favourite

40.4%

n=490 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −23.82

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

14.4%−1.7

n=962 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −297.20

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

12.5%−3.6

n=152 · A/E 1.31 · £1 −19.35

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 16.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Kielan Woods 29.9% vs 16.1% · n=87

On last-time-out winners 25.7% vs 16.1% · n=482

At Huntingdon 25.2% vs 16.1% · n=155

With Max Kendrick 5.6% vs 16.1% · n=71

With Paddy Brennan 23.1% vs 16.1% · n=545

With headgear back on 6% vs 16.1% · n=67

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 1,837 300 16.3% −371.21

Chase 656 110 16.8% −141.60

NH Flat 380 60 15.8% −92.04

Flat 190 22 11.6% −44.17

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 1,510 251 16.6% −355.64

Good to Soft 764 123 16.1% −113.63

Soft 481 65 13.5% −143.44

Standard (AW) 116 11 9.5% −39.00

Heavy 102 20 19.6% −3.20

Good to Firm 90 22 24.4% +5.89

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Uttoxeter 243 43 17.7% −16.63

Worcester 222 31 14% −79.85

Market Rasen 185 32 17.3% −25.84

Huntingdon 155 39 25.2% +4.14

Cheltenham 151 15 9.9% −45.96

Ludlow 146 31 21.2% −23.60

Southwell 136 21 15.4% −47.18

Chepstow 119 16 13.4% −30.88

Warwick 111 15 13.5% −38.84

Stratford 96 20 20.8% −11.72

Newbury 90 13 14.4% −15.03

Taunton 90 9 10% −18.97

Hereford 85 9 10.6% −50.38

Newton Abbot 83 17 20.5% −29.02

Bangor-on-Dee 77 11 14.3% −28.19

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 1,303 228 17.5% −336.89

Class 5 770 125 16.2% −139.98

Class 3 439 73 16.6% −94.65

Class 2 274 32 11.7% −42.56

Class 1 198 21 10.6% −41.85

Class 6 76 13 17.1% +9.91

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 555 216 38.9% 1.10 −27.81

2nd–3rd fav 992 190 19.2% 1.04 −86.71

4th–6th fav 938 68 7.2% 0.87 −279.00

7th+ in betting 578 18 3.1% 0.85 −255.50

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

88.3% completed · 2,493 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 656 81.4% 21 15 83 1 2

Hurdle 1,837 90.8% 32 12 117 4 4

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Zucayan (FR) 33 3 11 4 Oct 26

Castel Gandolfo (IRE)from Mrs John Harrington 32 3 9 11 Nov 25

Pull Again Green (IRE)from Harley Dean Dunne 28 5 9 6 Mar 26

Oslo (GB)from Michael Appleby 27 4 9 27 Sep 25

Ajp Kingdom (IRE) 23 5 14 12 Oct 25

Manothepeople (IRE) 22 6 9 24 Apr 26

Stoner's Choice (GB)from Ben Case 22 2 4 23 Apr 26

Greyval (FR)from L Gadbin 22 4 7 23 Apr 26

Tintintin (FR) 21 5 9 23 Sep 26

Kamsinas (FR) 21 5 9 19 Apr 26

Lilting Verse (IRE) 21 3 7 24 Mar 26

Autonomous Cloud (IRE)from Colin Tizzard · then Harry Derham 21 3 10 9 Dec 25

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 477 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 13 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 28 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from John Gallagher (3) and Oliver Sherwood (2); 32 had their first archived run for this yard.

9 have since run for another yard; 51 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Steady

3 from 22 13.6% · −2.5pts vs baseline

Last 14 days13.6%

5-season base16.1%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

161316171815181813161616

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderJonathan Burke

19% of all rides
15.3% SR · A/E 0.96

RiderRWSR£1

Jonathan Burke 574 88 15.3% −175.28

Paddy Brennan 545 126 23.1% −61.41

Liam Harrison 397 45 11.3% −98.01

Jack Hogan 345 53 15.4% −104.61

Connor Brace 298 49 16.4% +0.52

Fern O'Brien 209 26 12.4% −98.84

Mr Tom Broughton 168 32 19% −13.14

Kielan Woods 87 26 29.9% +74.75

Max Kendrick 71 4 5.6% −54.00

Gina Mangan 39 10 25.6% +20.98

Ben Sutton 38 7 18.4% −9.00

Nick Slatter 34 4 11.8% −10.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2007→

1,079

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£11.4m

Prize money

2022

Best season · 143 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Crambo (GB) — Howden Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Ascot · Dec 2024 · Grade 1

£71,188

Chase The Spud (GB) — Betfred Midlands Grand National (Listed Handicap Chase) Uttoxeter · Mar 2017 · Listed

£70,338

Crambo (GB) — Howden Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Ascot · Dec 2023 · Grade 1

£62,645

Notable horses

Perfect Candidate (IRE) Creevytennant (IRE) Crambo (GB) Golden Taipan (IRE) Oscar Rose (IRE) Pull Again Green (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Mahler (GB) 23.8% · 31–130

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,836 runs since 2008 (784 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.

Getaway (GER) 15.5% · 16–103

Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,914 runs since 2008 (1,026 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.7% from 131.

Soldier of Fortune (IRE) 11.8% · 12–102

Progeny have won 11.4% of 5,813 runs since 2008 (678 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 336. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.2% from 249.

Yeats (IRE) 26.4% · 24–91

Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,807 runs since 2008 (704 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 203. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.3% from 816.

Blue Bresil (FR) 15.7% · 13–83

Progeny have won 12.1% of 3,489 runs since 2008 (454 horses).

Kayf Tara (GB) 21% · 17–81

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,740 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 6,776 · newest first

The latest 50 of 6,776 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 11 March 2007 to 18 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

18 Oct 26 Sedgefield Can't Resist It (GB)J: Jack Hogan The Roflow Specialist Ventilation & Dehumidification 'national Hunt' Maiden Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 8 ran 4th 5/2

17 Oct 26 Stratford Mojo Ego (IRE)J: Fern O'Brien Annual Membership For Christmas Female Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle Race (Female Professional Jockeys And Amateur Riders' Race)Class 5 · 16.5f · Good · 7 ran 6th 4/1

17 Oct 26 Market Rasen Denemethy (IRE)J: Liam Harrison Pertemps Network Jean & Paul Lucas Memorial Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 21.5f · Good · 5 ran F 4/1

17 Oct 26 Stratford Katarcice (FR)J: Jack Hogan Keogh & Hows Maiden Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 22f · Good · 7 ran 1st 15/8F

16 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Div Ine Glance (GB)J: Fern O'Brien QuinnBet Mares' National Hunt Flat Race (Conditional And Amateur Jockeys' Race) (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 7 ran 6th 12/1

16 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Mariah's Dream (GB)J: Mr Lucas Murphy QuinnBet Mares' National Hunt Flat Race (Conditional And Amateur Jockeys' Race) (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 20/1

16 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Zenato (IRE)J: Fern O'Brien We Buy Cars On The Go Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran PU 14/1

16 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Mister Cessna (FR)J: Jack Hogan Thomas And Sonny Crilly Plant Hire Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 5 ran 4th 5/1

16 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Mahler Moon (IRE)J: Jack Hogan Insurance Connections Best Bet Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good · 8 ran 6th 14/1

15 Oct 26 Perth Get Out Of My Way (IRE)J: Jack Hogan Racing TV Profits Returned To Racing Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Soft · 9 ran 2nd 5/1

15 Oct 26 Perth Dream Shadow (IRE)J: Jack Hogan Download The Free Racing TV App Now Beginners' Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 16f · Soft · 4 ran 3rd 14/1

14 Oct 26 Wetherby Start Again (IRE)J: Jack Hogan Wetherby Racecourse Supporting Spinal Research Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (Go North Forgive 'N Forget Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good To Firm · 2 ran 1st 11/10

13 Oct 26 Hereford Blue Topaz (GB)J: Jack Hogan Betting.Bet Free Racing Tips Mares' 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Firm · 5 ran 1st 2/1

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Milly Ocean (IRE)J: Fern O'Brien Lsl Racing Mares' Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 3rd 5/2

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Jager Time (IRE)J: Fern O'Brien Dragonbet John Ayres Memorial Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 23.5f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 9th 16/1

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Minella Blizzard (IRE)J: Liam Harrison Dragonbet Backing Welsh Racing Maiden Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 13 ran PU 250/1

09 Oct 26 Chepstow Georgia's Charm (IRE)J: Fern O'Brien Alan Bushell Racing Remembers Alan Davies Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran F 4/1

09 Oct 26 Chepstow Chicker (GB)J: Fern O'Brien DragonBet Persian War Novices' Hurdle Race (Grade 2) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 8th 50/1

09 Oct 26 Chepstow Serious Challenge (IRE)J: Liam Harrison DragonBet 'Welsh Champion' Hurdle Race (A Limited Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 16th 22/1

08 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Wedonttellthetruth (IRE)J: Saffie Osborne Get Raceday Ready Handicap StakesClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 12 ran 4th 5/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Fergal O'Brien's strike rate?: Fergal O'Brien has won 492 of 3,063 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 16.1% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Fergal O'Brien do best at?: Huntingdon by strike rate: 39 wins from 155 runners (25.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Fergal O'Brien?: Jonathan Burke, with 574 runners since 2022 — 19% of the total. That pairing has won 88 (15.3%).
Is Fergal O'Brien in form?: In the last 14 days: 22 runners, 3 winners, a strike rate of 13.6%. That is in line with the baseline of 16.1% since 2022.
What is Fergal O'Brien's Fair A/E?: 1.03, from 3,060 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.