Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Rider Profile
Rides around 30 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 5% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.06). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 10% off breaks of two months or more (40 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 134 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 13 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 10%Claiming: 6.3%
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.2% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
4.9%−0.3
n=82 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −48.70
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−5.2
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
10%+4.8
n=40 · A/E 1.89 · £1 +1.30
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
6.3%+1.1
n=48 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −6.30
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−5.2
n=51 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −51.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−5.2
n=15 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −15.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With Robert Collet0% vs 5.2% · n=34
In Chase races2.8% vs 5.2% · n=36
In Hurdle races6.1% vs 5.2% · n=98 · A/E 1.32
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle9866.1%−30.30
Chase3612.8%−20.20
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Heavy6934.3%−19.90
Soft6035%−44.60
Good3133.3%+16.00
Good to Soft200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Auteuil (FR)5523.6%−19.60
Compiegne (FR)2414.2%−17.70
Cagnes-Sur-Mer (FR)1800%−18.00
Dieppe (FR)7114.3%+7.80
Nantes (FR)500%−5.00
Lyon Parilly (FR)400%−4.00
Clairefontaine (FR)4125%−0.50
Saint-Malo (FR)3133.3%+0.50
Bordeaux Le Bouscat (FR)200%−2.00
Vittel (FR)2150%+17.00
Fontainebleau (FR)200%−2.00
Senonnes-Pouance (FR)200%−2.00
Angers (FR)100%−1.00
Saint-Brieuc (FR)100%—
Craon (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 11500%−15.00
Class 3500%−5.00
Class 43133.3%+0.50
Class 2200%−2.00
Class 5100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite100%0.00−1.00
2nd–3rd fav14321.4%1.43+0.40
4th–6th fav2727.4%1.05−5.90
7th+ in betting9122.2%0.83−44.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f12075.8%−36.50
2m5f – 3m1000%−10.00
1m5f – 2m300%−3.00
Over 3m100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20222129.5%−7.30
20232000%−19.00
20243525.7%+7.80
20251600%−16.00
20264237.1%−16.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps5711.8%−29.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners3900%−39.00
11-13 runners3538.6%+6.70
8-10 runners35411.4%+6.80
5-7 runners1300%−13.00
17+ runners1200%−12.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 84 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 3
Only 3 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
006061411330400
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 9.8% of 4,607 runs since 2009 (397 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.6% from 516. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.7% from 1,130.
Progeny have won 13.5% of 7,041 runs since 2011 (543 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.3% from 1,044. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 19.8% from 126. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 6.4% from 267.
Progeny have won 9.1% of 4,302 runs since 2016 (313 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.5% from 869. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 5.8% from 725.
Saint Des Saints (FR)0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 15% of 5,366 runs since 2008 (645 horses).
Crillon (FR)0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 14.2% of 981 runs since 2009 (97 horses).
Progeny have won 12.3% of 848 runs since 2018 (115 horses). Strongest on Good going: 22.2% from 162. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 17.6% from 125.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 13 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 179 · newest first
The latest 50 of 179 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 12 May 2018 to 9 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Alexis Gautron's strike rate?
Alexis Gautron has won 7 of 134 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 5.2% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Alexis Gautron do best at?
Auteuil (FR) by strike rate: 2 wins from 55 rides (3.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is Alexis Gautron in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 3 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Alexis Gautron's Fair A/E?
1.06, from 133 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Alexis Gautron·SR 5.2%·A/E 1.06
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