Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 20 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 7% of them. The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 11% off breaks of two months or more (38 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 103 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 10.5%
The read
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a positive signal at 10.5% (n=38, Fair A/E 1.47), but a horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 2.9% (n=35, Fair A/E 0.47). The market has consistently overbet the yard on Soft going: Fair A/E 0.71 across 57 runners (5.3% strike, −39.10 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
10.5%+3.7
n=38 · A/E 1.47 · £1 +15.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
25%+18.2
n=4 · A/E 5.00 · £1 +9.00
Debutants · first career start
3.2%−3.6
n=31 · A/E 0.50 · £1 −26.64
First-time headgear · true-first definition
2.9%−3.9
n=35 · A/E 0.47 · £1 −28.64
When favourite
33.3%
n=6 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −1.44
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5%−1.8
n=20 · A/E 0.80 · £1 −4.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−6.8
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With first-time headgear2.9% vs 6.8% · n=35
With debutants3.2% vs 6.8% · n=31
With a new jockey booking4.2% vs 6.8% · n=71
In Hurdle races4.5% vs 6.8% · n=44
At Auteuil (FR)4.8% vs 6.8% · n=63
On Soft going5.3% vs 6.8% · n=57 · A/E 0.71
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Chase5347.5%−3.50
Hurdle4424.5%−29.80
Flat6116.7%−4.64
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft5735.3%−39.10
Heavy3825.3%+1.30
Good to Soft5240%+0.86
Good to Firm200%—
Good100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Auteuil (FR)6334.8%−15.00
Compiegne (FR)900%−9.00
Dieppe (FR)400%−4.00
Clairefontaine (FR)4250%+0.56
Saint-Malo (FR)3133.3%+0.50
Moulins (FR)300%−3.00
Craon (FR)300%−3.00
Le Lion-D'Angers (FR)3133.3%+1.00
Maure-De-Bretagne (FR)200%—
Meslay-Du-Maine (FR)200%—
Nantes (FR)200%−2.00
Fontainebleau (FR)100%−1.00
Saint-Cloud (FR)100%−1.00
Angers (FR)100%−1.00
Durtal (FR)100%—
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1800%−8.00
Class 34125%−0.50
Class 2100%−1.00
Class 4100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite7342.9%1.54+1.06
2nd–3rd fav1119.1%0.64−7.00
4th–6th fav2428.3%0.97−0.30
7th+ in betting5611.8%0.53−31.70
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f8356%−44.60
2m5f – 3m1417.1%+11.30
1m2f – 1m4f5120%−3.64
1m5f – 2m100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20222713.7%−14.30
20231616.3%−9.80
202410110%+3.00
20251616.3%+8.30
20263438.8%−25.14
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps3837.9%+2.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners3412.9%−28.50
11-13 runners2528%+10.00
14-16 runners1815.6%−14.80
5-7 runners1417.1%−7.00
17+ runners1119.1%+2.00
2-4 runners11100%+0.36
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 44 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 44 horses listed, 6 arrived from another yard in our archive; 38 had their first archived run for this yard.
1 has since run for another yard; 43 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 5
Only 5 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
·00970144300200
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
33
Archived wins
£1.28m
Prize money
2010
Best season · 7 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Mandarin Basc (FR) — Prix Meilleur Apprenti de France - AFASEC (Chase) (Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf) Clairefontaine (FR) · Jul 2023
£43,805
Defi Majeur (FR) — Prix de la Rochelle (Chase) (Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf) Compiegne (FR) · Apr 2019
£40,541
Cadikos (FR) — Prix Cerealiste (Hurdle) (Handicap) (5yo) (Turf) Auteuil (FR) · Oct 2010
Progeny have won 13.3% of 1,090 runs since 2008 (139 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 17% from 100. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.1% from 126. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 16.6% from 241. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 9.1% from 121.
Progeny have won 9.1% of 964 runs since 2008 (119 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 12.9% from 171. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 5.3% from 133.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 340 · newest first
The latest 50 of 340 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 22 April 2005 to 14 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is P Journiac's strike rate?
P Journiac has won 7 of 103 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 6.8% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does P Journiac do best at?
Auteuil (FR) by strike rate: 3 wins from 63 runners (4.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is P Journiac in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is P Journiac's Fair A/E?
0.94, from 98 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
P Journiac·SR 6.8%·A/E 0.94
KTB
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