Alexis Mercurol
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 20 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 13% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.25). When claiming the record reads 32% (34 rides).
It is weakest at Enghien (FR) (3.4% over 58 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Claiming rides have been a positive signal at 32.4% (n=34, Fair A/E 2.14), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 5.4% (n=74, Fair A/E 1.40). First rides on a horse are the standout value angle: 11.5% strikes only just below baseline, but Fair A/E 1.21 and +57.40 to a £1 stake over 139 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The rider also read well off a 61-180-day break (20.5%, n=39) and in Chase races (17.6%, n=74). The record read poorly on Heavy going — 9.2% over 65 rides, 3.8pts below the baseline. 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Prix Le Parisien - Grande Course De Haies De Printemps Handicap) at Auteuil (FR) (May 2010, £61,726).
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 13% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 13% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2006→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 216 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 216 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 23 December 2006 to 11 September 2016.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Alexis Mercurol's strike rate?
- Alexis Mercurol has won 27 of 208 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 13% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Alexis Mercurol do best at?
- Auteuil (FR) by strike rate: 15 wins from 111 rides (13.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- What is Alexis Mercurol's Fair A/E?
- 1.25, from 149 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.