Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceFirst rides: 1.6%
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 1% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
1.6%+0.6
n=63 · A/E 0.40 · £1 −33.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−1.0
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
0%−1.0
n=35 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −34.00
When favourite
0%
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−1.0
n=45 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −45.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−1.0
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On first rides for the horse1.6% vs 1% · n=63 · A/E 0.40
In Flat races1% vs 1% · n=98 · A/E 0.22
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)2900%−29.00
Soft2800%−28.00
Good to Soft2214.5%+7.00
Good1000%−10.00
Heavy800%−8.00
Good to Firm100%—
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Deauville (FR)2000%−20.00
Le Lion-D'Angers (FR)1000%−10.00
Saint-Cloud1000%−10.00
Chantilly (FR)1000%−10.00
Les Sables-d'Olonne (FR)700%−7.00
Saint-Malo (FR)600%−6.00
Longchamp (FR)600%−6.00
Dieppe (FR)600%−6.00
Senonnes-Pouance (FR)400%−4.00
Le Mans (FR)400%−4.00
Nantes (FR)400%−4.00
Chateaubriant (FR)300%−3.00
Craon (FR)300%−3.00
Clairefontaine (FR)2150%+27.00
Fontainebleau (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 42000%−20.00
Class 1300%−3.00
Class 3300%−3.00
Class 2200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite400%0.00−4.00
2nd–3rd fav700%0.00−7.00
4th–6th fav1200%0.00−12.00
7th+ in betting7411.4%0.51−45.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f4112.4%−12.00
1m5f – 2m2700%−26.00
1m – 1m1f1800%−18.00
6f – 7f1000%−10.00
2m1f – 2m4f200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20221200%−11.00
2023600%−6.00
2024600%−6.00
20251400%−14.00
20266011.7%−31.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps4200%−42.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners4000%−40.00
11-13 runners3013.3%+0.00
8-10 runners2000%−20.00
17+ runners500%−5.00
5-7 runners300%−3.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 67 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 4
Only 4 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
00·000050000
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Ena Baie (FR) — Prix de Lisle Briand (AQPS) (Turf) Le Lion-D'Angers · Jul 2017 · Grade 3
£12,821
Black Mor — Porc de Bayeux - Prix Turgeon Clairefontaine (FR) · Aug 2026
£10,050
Early Ouest (FR) — Prix des Brulis (Handicap) (4yo) (Polytrack) Chantilly (FR) · Jan 2014
Progeny have won 9.6% of 2,103 runs since 2008 (282 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.2% from 154. Weakest on Heavy going: 4.7% from 149. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 12.9% from 302.
Progeny have won 11.6% of 2,391 runs since 2008 (303 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.5% from 179. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 15.9% from 598. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 2.9% from 138.
Progeny have won 13% of 1,657 runs since 2008 (219 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.3% from 432.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 31 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 209 · newest first
The latest 50 of 209 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 30 June 2007 to 28 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Anthony Bernard's strike rate?
Anthony Bernard has won 1 of 98 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 1% (as at 31 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Anthony Bernard in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 4 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Anthony Bernard's Fair A/E?
0.22, from 97 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Anthony Bernard·SR 1%·A/E 0.22
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