Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 40 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.84). With a claiming rider up the record reads 5% (101 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 210 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 5%
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 2.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−2.9
n=56 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −56.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−2.9
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−2.9
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−2.9
n=19 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −19.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−2.9
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
When favourite
100%
n=1 · A/E 6.69 · £1 +4.60
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5%+2.1
n=101 · A/E 1.21 · £1 −38.80
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Off a 15-30-day break8.6% vs 2.9% · n=70
With Mlle Sophie Chuette8.6% vs 2.9% · n=35
With a new jockey booking0% vs 2.9% · n=72
With Mme Ambre Molins6.5% vs 2.9% · n=31
Off a 31-60-day break0% vs 2.9% · n=34
Off a 61-180-day break0% vs 2.9% · n=34
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)14332.1%−110.20
Good to Soft3412.9%−28.40
Soft1715.9%+6.80
Good1119.1%+3.00
Heavy500%−5.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Chantilly8322.4%−57.80
Deauville (FR)7011.4%−62.40
Saint-Cloud (FR)2913.4%−23.40
Longchamp (FR)2114.8%+2.80
Le Croise-Laroche (FR)2150%+12.00
Clairefontaine (FR)200%−2.00
Dieppe (FR)100%−1.00
Vichy (FR)100%−1.00
Compiegne (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 3300%−3.00
Class 4100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite11100%6.69+4.60
2nd–3rd fav6233.3%2.56+9.80
4th–6th fav2314.3%0.57−9.00
7th+ in betting18021.1%0.45−139.20
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m – 1m1f6623%−40.80
1m2f – 1m4f5423.7%−40.80
6f – 7f4412.3%−20.20
1m5f – 2m4312.3%−29.00
Under 6f300%−3.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20224400%−44.00
20234000%−40.00
20244000%−40.00
202546510.9%+22.60
20264012.5%−32.40
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps18563.2%−108.80
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners14453.5%−81.80
11-13 runners4512.2%−31.00
8-10 runners1300%−13.00
17+ runners600%−6.00
5-7 runners200%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 31 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 31 horses listed, 9 arrived from another yard in our archive; 22 had their first archived run for this yard.
1 has since run for another yard; 30 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
5017060009003
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
14
Archived wins
£215k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 5 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Val Jaro (FR) — Prix de Thiers sur Theve (Handicap) Chantilly (FR) · Sep 2006
£8,276
Val Jaro (FR) — Prix de Survilliers (Handicap) Chantilly (FR) · Sep 2006
£8,276
Born To Win (FR) — Prix du Petit Morin (Handicap) (4yo) (Turf) Saint-Cloud (FR) · Mar 2025
Progeny have won 9.1% of 4,271 runs since 2008 (309 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 12.1% from 960. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.4% from 864. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 5.8% from 723.
Progeny have won 7.6% of 925 runs since 2008 (131 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 12.8% from 149. Weakest on Soft going: 3.7% from 241.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 443 · newest first
The latest 50 of 443 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 7 April 2005 to 13 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is S Morineau's strike rate?
S Morineau has won 6 of 210 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 2.9% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does S Morineau do best at?
Chantilly by strike rate: 2 wins from 83 runners (2.4%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is S Morineau in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is S Morineau's Fair A/E?
0.84, from 210 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
S Morineau·SR 2.9%·A/E 0.84
KTB
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