As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride Sep 2007100% of rides on the flat
Archive record 2005–2007
No rides from 1 Jan 2008, where our aggregate statistics normally begin — showing the full archive record instead, 17 Jun 2005 to 2 Sep 2007. Figures that need a horse's earlier runs (debuts, time since a run, first-time headgear, new connections, last-time-out winners) are left out: for runs this early our archive cannot see what came before.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Small sample — fewer than 30 runs in this window. Read the Ns before the percentages.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.9% baseline
When favourite
100%
n=1 · A/E 8.26 · £1 +5.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
6.7%+0.8
n=15 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −9.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
7.7%+1.8
n=13 · A/E 1.33 · £1 −7.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. Tiles that depend on a horse's earlier runs (debuts, time off, first-time headgear, new connections, last-time-out winners) are not shown on an archive-era record: for runs this early our archive cannot see what came before.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good to Firm500%−5.00
Soft500%−5.00
Good400%−4.00
Heavy2150%+4.00
Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Tipperary4125%+2.00
Curragh300%−3.00
Navan300%−3.00
Downpatrick200%−2.00
Cork100%−1.00
Bellewstown100%−1.00
Fairyhouse100%−1.00
Limerick100%−1.00
Naas100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite11100%8.26+5.00
2nd–3rd fav200%0.00−2.00
4th–6th fav600%0.00−6.00
7th+ in betting800%0.00−8.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
Under 6f6116.7%+0.00
6f – 7f500%−5.00
1m2f – 1m4f300%−3.00
1m5f – 2m200%−2.00
1m – 1m1f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2005200%−2.00
20061218.3%−6.00
2007300%−3.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners700%−7.00
17+ runners6116.7%+0.00
11-13 runners400%−4.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 13 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. On this page the header statistics and this card both count from the archive floor (2005), so they agree.
Progeny have won 6.8% of 1,620 runs since 2005 (106 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 3.6% from 139.
Orpen (USA)0% · 0–2
Progeny have won 9% of 6,508 runs since 2005 (525 horses). Weakest on Firm going: 5.2% from 116.
Charnwood Forest (IRE)0% · 0–1
Progeny have won 5.8% of 1,127 runs since 2005 (78 horses).
Desert Style (IRE)0% · 0–1
Progeny have won 9% of 4,012 runs since 2005 (344 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 12.4% from 733. Weakest on Soft going: 5% from 496. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12% from 426. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.8% from 352.
Green Desert (USA)0% · 0–1
Progeny have won 11.5% of 5,352 runs since 2005 (395 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.6% from 123. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 7.9% from 482. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.9% from 276.
Imperial Ballet (IRE)0% · 0–1
Progeny have won 6.8% of 2,886 runs since 2005 (200 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 9.9% from 394.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2005, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
all 17 archived runs · newest first
Every one of Frances Kelly's 17 archived rides, from 17 June 2005 to 2 September 2007, newest first — one winner among them.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Frances Kelly's strike rate?
Frances Kelly has won 1 of 17 rides between 2005 and 2007, a strike rate of 5.9% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive. A small sample — fewer than 30 rides, so read the count before the percentage. Our archive begins in 2005, so anything earlier is not counted.
Frances Kelly·SR 5.9%·A/E 0.89
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