What is C F Swan's strike rate?

C F Swan has won 207 of 2,292 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does C F Swan do best at?

Roscommon by strike rate: 12 wins from 77 runners (15.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for C F Swan?

D J Casey, with 650 runners since 2008 — 28% of the total. That pairing has won 52 (8%).

What is C F Swan's Fair A/E?

0.98, from 2,292 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

C F Swan

2,292 runners in the lifetime window · 259 individual horses

As at 29 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Apr 2015

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

207–2,292

Wins / Runs

Strike rate

n=2,292

657 (29%)

Placed

0.98

Fair A/E

n=2,292 · 0.75 incl. margin

−942.66

£1 level stake

n=2,292 at SP · −41.1%

£3.06m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11.8%

KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 290 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 9% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.98). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 17% (54 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,292 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 29 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fired May–Jun 31.9% when favourite D J Casey: 8% from 650 Headgear returns: 16.7% Sent off the favourite in 8% of races

The read

A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a positive signal at 16.7% (n=54, Fair A/E 2.02), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 3.6% (n=192, Fair A/E 0.44). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 5.6% strike, Fair A/E 0.66 and −226.34 to a £1 stake over 375 runners — those runners underperformed what the price implied. D J Casey rode 28% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (8%, A/E 0.85). The yard also read well off a 0-7-day break (17.6%, n=125) and in NH Flat races (14.5%, n=276). The record read poorly in Class 1 — 3.4% over 206 runners, 5.6pts below the baseline. 25 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Menolly Homes Handicap Hurdle at Fairyhouse (Apr 2007, £84,500). The stable star of the record was Tribes And Banner (IRE) — 10 wins from 53 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fired May–Jun.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

5.6%−3.4

n=375 · A/E 0.66 · £1 −226.34

New recruits · first run for the yard

5.4%−3.6

n=37 · A/E 0.58 · £1 −30.25

Debutants · first career start

7.7%−1.3

n=156 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −68.70

First-time headgear · true-first definition

8.5%−0.5

n=106 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −44.77

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

16.7%+7.7

n=54 · A/E 2.02 · £1 +24.38

When favourite

31.9%

n=182 · A/E 1.17 · £1 −23.95

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

7.4%−1.6

n=716 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −309.33

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

3.6%−5.4

n=192 · A/E 0.44 · £1 −145.25

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Ms N Carberry 22.1% vs 9% · n=163

Off a 0-7-day break 17.6% vs 9% · n=125

On last-time-out winners 15.2% vs 9% · n=191

In NH Flat races 14.5% vs 9% · n=276

With headgear back on 16.7% vs 9% · n=54

In Class 1 3.4% vs 9% · n=206

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 960 72 7.5% −530.24

Flat 607 55 9.1% −159.57

Chase 449 40 8.9% −166.25

NH Flat 276 40 14.5% −86.60

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 681 47 6.9% −376.96

Good 499 48 9.6% −165.21

Heavy 469 40 8.5% −223.59

Good to Firm 245 32 13.1% −51.03

Good to Soft 190 17 8.9% −65.87

Standard (AW) 169 20 11.8% −45.75

Firm 39 3 7.7% −14.25

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Limerick 200 25 12.5% −48.00

Cork 176 18 10.2% −86.04

Dundalk 165 19 11.5% −43.42

Navan 138 11 8% −31.10

Fairyhouse 125 4 3.2% −99.12

Punchestown 123 9 7.3% −58.17

Galway 116 5 4.3% −91.59

Leopardstown 97 3 3.1% −74.92

Thurles 91 6 6.6% −59.24

Clonmel 86 6 7% −61.00

Gowran Park 84 4 4.8% −52.00

Killarney 82 9 11% −22.67

Roscommon 77 12 15.6% +3.62

Tipperary 73 10 13.7% −30.12

Down Royal 73 5 6.8% −34.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 206 7 3.4% −159.25

Class 2 24 1 4.2% −19.50

Class 3 10 0 0% −10.00

Class 4 10 2 20% −2.00

Class 5 9 2 22.2% −1.00

Class 6 6 1 16.7% −4.33

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 229 65 28.4% 1.11 −47.45

2nd–3rd fav 513 84 16.4% 1.15 −93.21

4th–6th fav 679 42 6.2% 0.87 −207.00

7th+ in betting 871 16 1.8% 0.51 −595.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

86.1% completed · 1,409 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 449 77.7% 25 15 52 1 7

Hurdle 960 90% 16 13 59 4 4

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Tribes And Banner (IRE)then Norman Lee 53 10 20 5 Oct 13

Start Me Up (IRE)then Conor Dore 43 5 16 7 Jul 13

Rodriguez (IRE) 41 5 13 14 Aug 14

Zaralabad (IRE)from John M Oxx 39 6 15 30 Sep 12

Prince Of Fire (GER)from T E Hyde 34 7 13 15 Jul 13

Lady Songbird (IRE)from Walter Swinburn 33 1 6 20 Oct 10

Cloone Rocket (IRE)then John Anthony Staunton 31 4 10 23 Jul 13

Foot Soldier (IRE)from A P O'Brien 30 1 11 16 Aug 14

Valain (IRE)from J-C Rouget 30 4 13 25 Aug 11

Oodachee (GB) 28 2 10 27 Jul 10

Garryowen Star (IRE) 27 2 12 15 Apr 11

Lady Bennett (IRE)then P J Rothwell 26 3 8 11 Sep 13

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 259 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 13 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 16 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from A P O'Brien (2) and John M Oxx (2); 44 had their first archived run for this yard.

30 have since run for another yard, most often for Gordon Elliott (2) and Jonjo O'Neill (2); 30 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

87921210101488910

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderD J Casey

28% of all rides
8% SR · A/E 0.85

RiderRWSR£1

D J Casey 650 52 8% −330.32

D G Hogan 296 16 5.4% −181.25

W J Lee 210 11 5.2% −119.12

Ms N Carberry 163 36 22.1% −23.77

Lenny Flynn 98 7 7.1% −39.00

Davy Russell 88 13 14.8% −41.61

Brian Cawley 67 8 11.9% +6.00

Conor Hoban 51 3 5.9% −28.25

Fran Berry 45 6 13.3% +2.33

Mr C D Sharkey 42 3 7.1% −23.00

Joseph O'Brien 36 5 13.9% +19.50

Conor O'Farrell 30 3 10% −8.25

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

355

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£6.22m

Prize money

2005

Best season · 56 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Emmpat (IRE) — Menolly Homes Handicap Hurdle Fairyhouse · Apr 2007 · Grade B

£84,500

Jalmira (IRE) — Sporting Index EBF Irish Cambridgeshire Premier Handicap Curragh · Sep 2007

£72,120

Offshore Account (IRE) — Ellier Developments Champion Novice Chase (Grade 1) Punchestown · Apr 2007 · Grade 1

£68,200

Notable horses

Tribes And Banner (IRE) Emmpat (IRE) One Cool Cookie (IRE) Jalmira (IRE) Oodachee (GB) On The Other Hand (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Oscar (IRE) 8.8% · 13–148

Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.

Milan (GB) 9% · 11–122

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,860 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).

Supreme Leader (GB) 7.4% · 5–68

Progeny have won 9.2% of 2,984 runs since 2008 (349 horses).

High Chaparral (IRE) 11.9% · 8–67

Progeny have won 10.3% of 8,730 runs since 2008 (682 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.2% from 419.

Bob's Return (IRE) 17.7% · 11–62

Progeny have won 8.5% of 2,268 runs since 2008 (219 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 11.8% from 254.

King's Theatre (IRE) 9.7% · 6–62

Progeny have won 14.4% of 12,129 runs since 2008 (746 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 125. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.9% from 203.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 3,906 · newest first

The latest 50 of 3,906 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 17 April 2015.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

17 Apr 15 Dundalk (AW) Bamako Du Chatelet (FR)J: W J Lee www.dundalkstadium.com Maiden10.5f · Standard · 12 ran 4th 12/1

27 Mar 15 Dundalk (AW) Bamako Du Chatelet (FR)J: W J Lee Visit Attheraces.com/topoffers Maiden12f · Standard · 8 ran 5th 6/4

26 Mar 15 Cork Alchimix (FR)J: David Mullins Cit Horse Racing Maiden Hurdle16f · Heavy · 10 ran 5th 25/1

14 Mar 15 Limerick Vinciaettis (FR)J: Ms N Carberry 59 Hospitality Packages At Limerick Racecourse (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Heavy · 4 ran 1st 4/5F

30 Jan 15 Dundalk (AW) Moving On Up (IRE)J: Donnacha O'Brien Follow Dundalk On Facebook Handicap8f · Standard · 8 ran 4th 4/1

29 Jan 15 Thurles Drumlee (IRE)J: D J Casey Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Rated Novice Chase16.5f · Heavy · 10 ran 4th 11/4F

24 Jan 15 Navan Flammetta (GB)J: D J Casey 2015 Navan Membership Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 16 ran PU 100/1

24 Jan 15 Navan Rogue Trader (IRE)J: Ms N Carberry 2015 Navan Membership Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 16 ran 1st 6/1

22 Jan 15 Gowran Park Getoutwhenyoucan (IRE)J: D J Casey PMF Accountants Beginners Chase18f · Heavy · 9 ran PU 14/1

22 Jan 15 Gowran Park Make A Track (IRE)J: B J Cooper Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase (grade A)25f · Heavy · 17 ran PU 16/1

22 Jan 15 Gowran Park Fulton (IRE)J: D J Casey Langton House Hotel Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft To Heavy · 19 ran 13th 33/1

17 Jan 15 Naas Close One (IRE)J: D J Casey Cheltenham Trial Day 22nd February Handicap Chase (0-109)16f · Soft · 7 ran 5th 9/1

16 Jan 15 Dundalk (AW) Chasing Waterfalls (IRE)J: Wayne Lordan Crowne Plaza Leading Jockey & Trainer Championship Maiden10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 12/1

10 Jan 15 Punchestown Flammetta (GB)J: D J Casey David Trundley Artist At Punchestown Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 22 ran 17th 100/1

03 Jan 15 Cork Drumlee (IRE)J: D J Casey Mccarthy Insurance Group Beginners Chase20f · Heavy · 7 ran 2nd 7/1

03 Jan 15 Cork Squouateur (FR)J: D J Casey Mccarthy Insurance Group Maiden Hurdle16f · Heavy · 6 ran 4th 5/2

02 Jan 15 Dundalk (AW) Emiest Rose (IRE)J: Conor Hoban Fundraising Made Easy At Dundalk Stadium Maiden8f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 7/1

31 Dec 14 Punchestown Abby Cadabby (IRE)J: D J Casey Festival Hospitality On Sale 3-y-o Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 14 ran 4th 7/1

31 Dec 14 Punchestown Close One (IRE)J: D J Casey Punchestown.com Handicap Chase16f · Soft · 10 ran 9th 20/1

30 Dec 14 Lingfield (AW) Shorana (IRE)J: Jamie Spencer Coral Mobile 'Just Three Clicks To Bet' Maiden StakesClass 5 · 10f · Standard · 7 ran 2nd 5/6F

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is C F Swan's strike rate?: C F Swan has won 207 of 2,292 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does C F Swan do best at?: Roscommon by strike rate: 12 wins from 77 runners (15.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for C F Swan?: D J Casey, with 650 runners since 2008 — 28% of the total. That pairing has won 52 (8%).
What is C F Swan's Fair A/E?: 0.98, from 2,292 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.