Skip to content
Trainer profile

John Geoghegan

68 runners in the last 5 seasons · 7 individual horses
As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Jun 2025 99% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2022
2–68
Wins / Runs
2.9%
Strike rate
n=68
11 (16%)
Placed
0.52
Fair A/E
n=68 · 0.41 incl. margin
+21.00
£1 level stake
n=68 at SP · +30.9%
£36,355
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 3.1%

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 2.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−2.9
n=15 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −15.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−2.9
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−2.9
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−2.9
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
12.5%+9.6
n=8 · A/E 2.66 · £1 +0.00
When favourite
0%
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
3.1%+0.2
n=32 · A/E 0.44 · £1 +49.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With a new jockey booking 6.7% vs 2.9% · n=30
In Flat races 3% vs 2.9% · n=67 · A/E 0.52
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 67 2 3% +22.00
Hurdle 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 31 1 3.2% −23.00
Good 24 0 0% −24.00
Soft 10 1 10% +71.00
Good to Soft 2 0 0% −2.00
Good to Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 31 1 3.2% −23.00
Curragh 10 1 10% +71.00
Gowran Park 6 0 0% −6.00
Leopardstown 6 0 0% −6.00
Down Royal 2 0 0% −2.00
Fairyhouse 2 0 0% −2.00
Navan 2 0 0% −2.00
Roscommon 2 0 0% −2.00
Tipperary 2 0 0% −2.00
Cork 1 0 0% −1.00
Bellewstown 1 0 0% −1.00
Killarney 1 0 0% −1.00
Punchestown 1 0 0% −1.00
Kilbeggan 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 2 0 0% 0.00 −2.00
2nd–3rd fav 6 0 0% 0.00 −6.00
4th–6th fav 16 1 6.3% 0.75 −8.00
7th+ in betting 44 1 2.3% 0.80 +37.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Chateau Musar (IRE) 19 0 2 25 Aug 23
The Bear Trap (IRE)from Mrs John Harrington · then Adrian McGuinness 14 1 5 5 May 25
Sayfa Fad (IRE)then Paul W Flynn 13 0 1 19 Jun 25
French Rescue (IRE) 11 1 3 20 Jan 23
Profit Surge (IRE)then Gerard Keane 8 0 0 12 May 25
Anjalawi (IRE)from G M Lyons · then Mark Fahey 2 0 0 22 May 22
El Credo (IRE) 1 0 0 26 Mar 22
All 7 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 7 horses listed, 2 arrived from another yard in our archive; 5 had their first archived run for this yard.

4 have since run for another yard; 3 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
000000·0130025
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Gary Halpin 13 0 0% −13.00
Tom Kiely-Marshall 12 1 8.3% +69.00
Paddy Harnett 12 0 0% −12.00
Colin Keane 6 0 0% −6.00
Nathan Crosse 6 1 16.7% +2.00
Rory Cleary 2 0 0% −2.00
Jessica Maye 2 0 0% −2.00
Shane B Kelly 2 0 0% −2.00
Ben Coen 2 0 0% −2.00
Danny Sheehy 1 0 0% −1.00
Sam Coen 1 0 0% −1.00
Sorcha Woods 1 0 0% −1.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
41
Archived wins
£505k
Prize money
2021
Best season · 4 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Lake Pontchartrain (IRE) — Ladbrokes Handicap Dundalk (AW) · Nov 2007
£17,252
Lake Pontchartrain (IRE) — boylesports.com Handicap Dundalk (AW) · Nov 2008
£16,926
Monteriggioni (IRE) — Pinewood Handicap (60-100) Leopardstown · Apr 2008
£16,275
Notable horses
The Dancing Lord (GB) Chateau Musar (IRE) Prince Of Fashion (IRE) Lake Pontchartrain (IRE) Monteriggioni (IRE) Silk Cravat (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Galileo Gold (GB) 4.2% · 1–24
Progeny have won 10.8% of 2,005 runs since 2008 (172 horses).
Morpheus (GB) 0% · 0–19
Progeny have won 7.1% of 1,670 runs since 2008 (128 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 10.9% from 539. Weakest on Soft going: 2.6% from 305. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 2.7% from 147.
Kodi Bear (IRE) 7.1% · 1–14
Progeny have won 10.4% of 3,900 runs since 2008 (384 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 255.
Profitable (IRE) 0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 9.5% of 4,393 runs since 2008 (356 horses).
Anjaal (GB) 0% · 0–2
Progeny have won 7.9% of 1,213 runs since 2008 (112 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 12.4% from 161.
Make Believe (GB) 0% · 0–1
Progeny have won 11.1% of 3,589 runs since 2008 (296 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 652 · newest first

The latest 50 of 652 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 19 January 2005 to 19 June 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
19 Jun 25 Leopardstown Sayfa Fad (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Jerry Fish Handicap (0-60) (Div 2)9f · Good · 16 ran 8th 14/1
12 May 25 Roscommon Profit Surge (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Next Meeting At Roscommon On Monday, 19th May Handicap (0-60) (Div 1)7.5f · Good · 15 ran 6th 16/1
07 May 25 Gowran Park Sayfa Fad (IRE)J: Colin Keane Save 33% Buying Tickets Online Handicap (0-60) (Div 1)8f · Good · 14 ran 10th 7/1
05 May 25 Curragh The Bear Trap (IRE)J: Paddy Harnett PG Duffy & Sons Citroen Apprentice Handicap7f · Good · 25 ran 16th 16/1
09 Apr 25 Leopardstown Sayfa Fad (IRE)J: Colin Keane O'Driscolls Irish Whiskey Handicap (0-60)9f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 12/1
09 Apr 25 Leopardstown The Bear Trap (IRE)J: Ben Coen FM104 'Giddy Up' Handicap7f · Good · 13 ran 5th 10/1
21 Feb 25 Dundalk (AW) Sayfa Fad (IRE)J: Sorcha Woods DundalkStadium.com Apprentice Handicap (47-65)10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 40/1
14 Feb 25 Dundalk (AW) Profit Surge (IRE)J: Jessica Maye William Hill Top Price Guarantee Handicap (47-65)7f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 25/1
13 Dec 24 Dundalk (AW) The Bear Trap (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Swifty Sports Proud Sponsor Of Irish Racing Maiden7f · Standard · 14 ran 1st 7/1
13 Nov 24 Dundalk (AW) The Bear Trap (IRE)J: Sam Coen DKITSU Race Day At Dundalk Handicap (47-70)7f · Standard · 14 ran 7th 8/1
08 Nov 24 Dundalk (AW) Profit Surge (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse William Hill Proper Betting Handicap (47-65) (Div 2)8f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 20/1
08 Nov 24 Dundalk (AW) Sayfa Fad (IRE)J: Robbie Colgan William Hill Proper Betting Handicap (47-65) (Div 1)8f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 20/1
30 Oct 24 Dundalk (AW) Profit Surge (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap (47-70)8f · Standard · 11 ran 6th 22/1
22 Oct 24 Curragh The Bear Trap (IRE)J: Paddy Harnett Friarstown Stud Handicap6f · Soft · 15 ran 11th 12/1
14 Oct 24 Roscommon Sayfa Fad (IRE)J: Ben Coen Roscommon Racecourse On Facebook Handicap (47-65) (Div 2)7.5f · Soft · 15 ran 11th 20/1
05 Oct 24 Curragh The Bear Trap (IRE)J: Paddy Harnett Gormley's Gallery Handicap (47-75)6f · Good · 17 ran 10th 14/1
04 Oct 24 Dundalk (AW) Profit Surge (IRE)J: W J Lee Michael Cooney Memorial Maiden7f · Standard · 12 ran 7th 33/1
03 Oct 24 Bellewstown Sayfa Fad (IRE)J: Colin Keane Bluegrass Horse Feeds Handicap (47-65)8f · Yielding · 13 ran 8th 10/1
23 Sep 24 Fairyhouse The Bear Trap (IRE)J: Paddy Harnett Treo Eile Handicap (47-75)7f · Good · 11 ran 5th 12/1
23 Sep 24 Fairyhouse Profit Surge (IRE)J: Wayne Lordan Kilminfoyle House Stud Fillies Maiden7f · Good · 11 ran 8th 28/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is John Geoghegan's strike rate?
John Geoghegan has won 2 of 68 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 2.9% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does John Geoghegan do best at?
Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 1 wins from 31 runners (3.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is John Geoghegan's Fair A/E?
0.52, from 68 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 15 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).