What is Justin Morgan's strike rate?

Justin Morgan has won 3 of 128 rides between 2005 and 2007, a strike rate of 2.3% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive. Our archive begins in 2005, so anything earlier is not counted.

Which course does Justin Morgan do best at?

Fontwell by strike rate: 1 wins from 31 rides (3.2%) between 2005 and 2007. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Justin Morgan ride most for?

L Wells, with 72 rides between 2005 and 2007 — 56% of the total. That pairing has won 3 (4.2%).

What is Justin Morgan's Fair A/E?

0.47, from 128 rides with a computed fair probability between 2005 and 2007. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Justin Morgan

128 rides in our archive record, 2005–2007 · 56 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Jan 2007 98% of rides over jumps

Archive record 2005–2007

No rides from 1 Jan 2008, where our aggregate statistics normally begin — showing the full archive record instead, 3 Jan 2005 to 21 Jan 2007. Figures that need a horse's earlier runs (debuts, time since a run, first-time headgear, new connections, last-time-out winners) are left out: for runs this early our archive cannot see what came before.

3–128

Wins / Runs

2.3%

Strike rate

n=128

12 (9%)

Placed

0.47

Fair A/E

n=128 · 0.41 incl. margin

−91.75

£1 level stake

n=128 at SP · −71.7%

£32,913

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rode 128 times in our archive record (2005–2007), almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 2% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across that record (Fair A/E 0.47). Rode mostly for L Wells — 56% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 128 archived runs (archive record 2005–2007) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance L Wells: 4.2% from 72 Claiming: 2.4%

The read

The market has consistently overbet claiming rides: 2.4% strike, Fair A/E 0.48 and −88.75 to a £1 stake over 125 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. L Wells supplied 56% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (4.2%, A/E 0.71). The rider also read well beyond 3m (9.1%, n=33) and on Good going (6.3%, n=32).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 2.3% baseline

When favourite

50%

n=2 · A/E 2.53 · £1 +1.75

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

2.4%+0.1

n=125 · A/E 0.48 · £1 −88.75

Big fields · 14+ runners

0%−2.3

n=36 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −36.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−2.3

n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. Tiles that depend on a horse's earlier runs (debuts, time off, first-time headgear, new connections, last-time-out winners) are not shown on an archive-era record: for runs this early our archive cannot see what came before.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Beyond 3m 9.1% vs 2.3% · n=33

On Good going 6.3% vs 2.3% · n=32

Over 2m1f – 2m4f 0% vs 2.3% · n=38

With L Wells 4.2% vs 2.3% · n=72 · A/E 0.71

In Class 5 0% vs 2.3% · n=33

Over 2m5f – 3m 0% vs 2.3% · n=31

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 61 1 1.6% −32.00

Chase 51 2 3.9% −43.75

NH Flat 13 0 0% −13.00

Flat 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 34 1 2.9% −30.25

Good 32 2 6.3% +0.50

Good to Soft 26 0 0% −26.00

Good to Firm 25 0 0% −25.00

Heavy 9 0 0% −9.00

Standard (AW) 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Fontwell 31 1 3.2% −27.50

Plumpton 20 0 0% −20.00

Folkestone 16 1 6.3% −12.25

Huntingdon 6 0 0% −6.00

Warwick 5 0 0% −5.00

Hereford 5 0 0% −5.00

Towcester 5 0 0% −5.00

Newton Abbot 5 1 20% +24.00

Stratford 4 0 0% −4.00

Taunton 3 0 0% −3.00

Worcester 3 0 0% −3.00

Lingfield 3 0 0% −3.00

Exeter 3 0 0% −3.00

Uttoxeter 2 0 0% −2.00

Chepstow 2 0 0% −2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 56 2 3.6% −23.25

Class 5 33 0 0% −33.00

Class 3 19 1 5.3% −15.50

Class 6 15 0 0% −15.00

Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00

Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Class 7 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 3 2 66.7% 3.08 +4.25

2nd–3rd fav 8 0 0% 0.00 −8.00

4th–6th fav 35 0 0% 0.00 −35.00

7th+ in betting 82 1 1.2% 0.50 −53.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

62.5% completed · 112 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 51 58.8% 2 1 18 0 0

Hurdle 61 65.6% 0 1 20 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Cowboyboots (IRE) 10 1 2 7 Jan 07

Big Quick (IRE) 9 1 1 24 Sep 06

Multi Talented (IRE) 7 0 0 15 Nov 06

Lord Leonardo (IRE) 6 0 0 2 Jan 07

El Viejo (IRE) 6 0 1 27 Nov 06

Carroll's O'Tully (IRE) 6 0 2 5 Apr 06

Just Anvil (IRE) 6 1 2 31 Jan 06

Ascoolasice (GB) 4 0 0 21 Jan 07

Top Dog (IRE) 4 0 0 12 Dec 06

One Cornetto (IRE) 4 0 1 3 Nov 06

Lord Musgrave (IRE) 4 0 0 14 May 06

Public Eye (GB) 4 0 0 26 Apr 06

All 56 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 2005–2007

JFMAMJJASOND

4000000170070

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardL Wells

56% of all rides
4.2% SR · A/E 0.71

TrainerRWSR£1

L Wells 72 3 4.2% −35.75

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

£32,913

Prize money

2005

Best season · 2 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. On this page the header statistics and this card both count from the archive floor (2005), so they agree.

Cowboyboots (IRE) — totesport.com Handicap Chase Fontwell · Nov 2006 · Class 3

£7,585

Just Anvil (IRE) — Handicap Chase Folkestone · Jan 2005 · Class 4

£3,907

Big Quick (IRE) — Toteplacepot Handicap Hurdle Newton Abbot · Aug 2005 · Class 4

£2,782

Notable horses

Cowboyboots (IRE) Big Quick (IRE) Just Anvil (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Lord Americo (IRE) 6.7% · 1–15

Progeny have won 7.5% of 4,424 runs since 2005 (444 horses).

Norwich (GB) 0% · 0–13

Progeny have won 8.2% of 2,661 runs since 2005 (262 horses).

Glacial Storm (USA) 10% · 1–10

Progeny have won 7.9% of 2,559 runs since 2005 (254 horses).

Montelimar (USA) 0% · 0–7

Progeny have won 7% of 791 runs since 2005 (94 horses).

Baron Blakeney (GB) 16.7% · 1–6

Progeny have won 7.7% of 78 runs since 2005 (16 horses).

Carroll House (IRE) 0% · 0–6

Progeny have won 7% of 1,895 runs since 2005 (198 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2005, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 128 · newest first

The latest 50 of 128 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 21 January 2007.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

21 Jan 07 Towcester Ascoolasice (GB)T: Luke Dace Wayside Volkswagen Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24.5f · Heavy · 15 ran PU 100/1

07 Jan 07 Plumpton Cowboyboots (IRE)T: L Wells skybet.com Sussex National Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 28.5f · Soft · 11 ran 6th 16/1

04 Jan 07 Lingfield Ascoolasice (GB)T: Luke Dace lingfieldpark.co.uk Beginners' ChaseClass 4 · 20.5f · Heavy · 7 ran 7th 100/1

02 Jan 07 Folkestone Lord Leonardo (IRE)T: L Wells Paddock Selling Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 22.5f · Soft · 11 ran 6th 20/1

26 Dec 06 Huntingdon Run For Henry (GB)T: Jim Best WBX.com Supporters Of Racing Standard Open NH Flat (Div 1)Class 6 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 10th 14/1

12 Dec 06 Folkestone Cliffords Lady (GB)T: Luke Dace Smith & Williamson Maiden HurdleClass 4 · 22.5f · Heavy · 10 ran PU 66/1

12 Dec 06 Folkestone Top Dog I (IRE)T: L Wells Bill Laidlaw 60th Birthday Celebration Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 25f · Soft · 10 ran PU 33/1

12 Dec 06 Folkestone Ascoolasice (GB)T: Luke Dace Smith & Williamson Beginners' ChaseClass 4 · 25f · Soft · 12 ran PU 80/1

05 Dec 06 Fontwell Imtouchingwood (GB)T: Luke Dace Wellpool Building & Maintenance Services Maiden HurdleClass 5 · 19f · Soft · 16 ran PU 100/1

03 Dec 06 Warwick Freeze The Dream (GB)T: Luke Dace Racing UK Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 16f · Soft · 20 ran 19th 100/1

03 Dec 06 Warwick Ascoolasice (GB)T: Luke Dace warwickracecourse.co.uk Beginners' ChaseClass 4 · 26f · Soft · 6 ran PU 100/1

27 Nov 06 Folkestone El Viejo (IRE)T: L Wells Daily Mail Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 21f · Good To Soft · 12 ran PU 25/1

26 Nov 06 Fontwell Cowboyboots (IRE)T: L Wells Freddie Meecham Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 25.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 3rd 9/2

22 Nov 06 Lingfield Imtouchingwood (GB)T: Luke Dace Lingfield Park Golf Course Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 19.5f · Heavy · 9 ran PU 100/1

21 Nov 06 Kempton Field of Blue (GB)T: Jim Best Racing UK Conditional Jockeys' Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 13th 25/1

15 Nov 06 Warwick Multi Talented (IRE)T: L Wells Watch Security Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 26f · Good · 14 ran PU 14/1

12 Nov 06 Fontwell Cowboyboots (IRE)T: L Wells totesport.com Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 27f · Good · 5 ran 1st 5/2J

03 Nov 06 Fontwell One Cornetto (IRE)T: L Wells Cenkos Securities Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 17.5f · Good · 8 ran 7th 16/1

30 Oct 06 Plumpton Rhapsody In Bloom (GB)T: L Wells Alexanders Catering 'NH' Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 20.5f · Good · 13 ran PU 150/1

26 Oct 06 Stratford Lord Leonardo (IRE)T: L Wells Theatre Maiden Hurdle (Div 2)Class 4 · 22f · Soft · 11 ran PU 100/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Justin Morgan's strike rate?: Justin Morgan has won 3 of 128 rides between 2005 and 2007, a strike rate of 2.3% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive. Our archive begins in 2005, so anything earlier is not counted.
Which course does Justin Morgan do best at?: Fontwell by strike rate: 1 wins from 31 rides (3.2%) between 2005 and 2007. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Justin Morgan ride most for?: L Wells, with 72 rides between 2005 and 2007 — 56% of the total. That pairing has won 3 (4.2%).
What is Justin Morgan's Fair A/E?: 0.47, from 128 rides with a computed fair probability between 2005 and 2007. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.