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Trainer profile

Luke Dace

301 runners in the last 5 seasons · 28 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 6 days ago 98% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2022
23–301
Wins / Runs
7.6%
Strike rate
n=301
67 (22%)
Placed
1.03
Fair A/E
n=299 · 0.88 incl. margin
−17.25
£1 level stake
n=301 at SP · −5.7%
£291k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
7.7%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 60 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 8% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.03).

Deterministic profile computed from 301 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Jack Dace: 9.2% from 109 Claiming riders: 8%
The read

It is weakest at Lingfield (AW) (2.9% over 69 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 0% (n=45, Fair A/E 0.00). Runners with a claiming rider up are the standout value angle: 8% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.21 and +21.00 to a £1 stake over 174 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Jack Dace rides 36% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (9.2%, A/E 1.36) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Good to Firm going (15.8%, n=57) and in Class 4 (11.4%, n=79). The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 0% over 33 runners, 7.6pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Hip Hip Hooray (GB) — 8 wins from 75 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−7.6
n=45 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −45.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−7.6
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−7.6
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−7.6
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−7.6
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=15 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −1.75
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8%+0.4
n=174 · A/E 1.21 · £1 +21.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−7.6
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Good to Firm going 15.8% vs 7.6% · n=57
Off a 61-180-day break 0% vs 7.6% · n=33
With C&D winners 13% vs 7.6% · n=54
At Lingfield (AW) 2.9% vs 7.6% · n=69
In Class 4 11.4% vs 7.6% · n=79
Over 1m2f – 1m4f 11.1% vs 7.6% · n=63
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 294 23 7.8% −10.25
Hurdle 6 0 0% −6.00
NH Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 163 11 6.7% +12.75
Good to Firm 57 9 15.8% +25.50
Good 50 3 6% −24.50
Good to Soft 14 0 0% −14.00
Soft 10 0 0% −10.00
Heavy 6 0 0% −6.00
Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Kempton (AW) 70 7 10% +39.25
Lingfield (AW) 69 2 2.9% −17.00
Lingfield 18 3 16.7% −2.75
Newbury 16 0 0% −16.00
Windsor 16 4 25% +7.25
Wolverhampton (AW) 11 1 9.1% +1.00
Salisbury 11 0 0% −11.00
Sandown 11 3 27.3% +15.50
Brighton 10 0 0% −10.00
Ascot 10 1 10% +24.00
Chelmsford City (AW) 10 1 10% −7.50
Newmarket 8 0 0% −8.00
Goodwood 8 0 0% −8.00
Chester 6 1 16.7% +3.00
Newmarket 6 0 0% −6.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 91 8 8.8% +9.00
Class 6 89 5 5.6% −31.25
Class 4 79 9 11.4% +41.50
Class 3 24 0 0% −24.00
Class 2 15 1 6.7% −9.50
Class 1 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 15 5 33.3% 1.03 −1.75
2nd–3rd fav 43 3 7% 0.44 −26.50
4th–6th fav 94 9 9.6% 1.31 −7.00
7th+ in betting 149 6 4% 1.63 +18.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Youthful King (GB) 42 6 13 14 Oct 26
The Defiant (GB)from Daniel Steele 40 2 12 25 Feb 26
King Cabo (USA) 34 4 11 4 Nov 25
Lunario (IRE)from Alice Haynes 18 3 4 9 Oct 26
Valentine Boy (GB) 14 2 3 9 Oct 26
Aljezur (IRE)then Jennie Candlish 14 0 4 11 Oct 24
Tatmeen (IRE) 13 1 2 25 Mar 26
Orange Rosetta (GB) 12 0 0 27 Aug 24
Snuggle (GB)from Ed Walker · then Clare Hobson 10 1 4 24 Oct 24
Safe Passage (GB)from Richard Hannon 10 0 2 10 Jan 24
Now The Eagle (FR)from N Clement & F Hermans 9 1 3 7 Oct 26
Sapperdean (GB) 9 0 1 20 Dec 23
All 28 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 28 horses listed, 14 arrived from another yard in our archive; 14 had their first archived run for this yard.

3 have since run for another yard; 25 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 4
Only 4 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
057781614860140
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderJack Dace
36% of all rides
9.2% SR · A/E 1.36
RiderRWSR£1
Jack Dace 109 10 9.2% +44.75
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
101
Archived wins
£772k
Prize money
2014
Best season · 17 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Ravenous (GB) — Racing UK In HD Colwick Cup (Handicap) Nottingham · Aug 2016 · Class 3
£22,642
American Spin (GB) — Pertemps Network Long Distance Handicap Hurdle Haydock · May 2012 · Class 2
£15,640
Youthful King (GB) — AWCI The Drylining & Interior Specialist Handicap Windsor · Jul 2023 · Class 2
£15,462
Notable horses
Hip Hip Hooray (GB) Youthful King (GB) Echo Brava (GB) Alnoomaas (IRE) Spiritual Art (GB) American Spin (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Fountain Of Youth (IRE) 14.3% · 6–42
Progeny have won 7.4% of 1,074 runs since 2008 (104 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 10.9% from 201. Weakest on Soft going: 3.9% from 103. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 11.4% from 123. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.8% from 158.
Morpheus (GB) 5% · 2–40
Progeny have won 7.1% of 1,671 runs since 2008 (128 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 10.9% from 540. Weakest on Soft going: 2.6% from 305. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 2.7% from 147.
Carpe Diem (USA) 11.8% · 4–34
Progeny have won 7.6% of 66 runs since 2008 (3 horses).
Adaay (IRE) 0% · 0–18
Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,957 runs since 2008 (192 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6% from 497.
Gregorian (IRE) 16.7% · 3–18
Progeny have won 9.4% of 1,941 runs since 2008 (164 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6% from 116.
Galileo Gold (GB) 0% · 0–14
Progeny have won 10.7% of 2,016 runs since 2008 (173 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,576 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,576 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 10 January 2005 to 14 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
14 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Youthful King (GB)J: Jack Dace Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap Stakes (London Middle Distance Qualifier) (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 11f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 11th 80/1
09 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Valentine Boy (GB)J: Darragh Keenan Try Unibet's Superboosts Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Div I)Class 5 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 5th 18/1
09 Oct 26 Newmarket Lunario (IRE)J: Jack Dace HKJC World Pool Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 6th 12/1
07 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Now The Eagle (FR)J: Jack Dace Set Your Limits With Unibet Handicap Stakes (London Stayers Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 16f · Standard / Slow · 9 ran 4th 8/1
25 Sep 26 Worcester Break Point (GB)J: Freddie Keighley Pj Nicholls Kgm Korea Genuinely Made Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 23f · Good · 9 ran 9th 9/1
19 Sep 26 Newmarket Lunario (IRE)J: Jack Dace Turners Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Good · 14 ran 4th 40/1
14 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Valentine Boy (GB)J: Jack Dace Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts Handicap Stakes (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 11f · Standard / Slow · 9 ran 6th 10/1
10 Sep 26 Lingfield (AW) Mister Pretentious (GB)J: Kieran O'Neill Follow @attheraces On X Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 20/1
09 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Backer Bilk (GB)J: Darragh Keenan Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11f · Standard / Slow · 12 ran 11th 33/1
28 Aug 26 Fontwell Break Point (GB)J: Freddie Keighley Watch Unbridled On attheraces.com Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 21.5f · Good · 5 ran 2nd 7/1
25 Aug 26 Lingfield (AW) Backer Bilk (GB)J: George Wood Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 7 ran 4th 10/1
21 Aug 26 Salisbury Panthere Noir (GB)J: Tyler Heard Edwards Ford, Foray Motor Group Handicap StakesClass 6 · 14f · Good · 6 ran 6th 9/1
17 Aug 26 Windsor Mister Pretentious (GB)J: Isobelle Chalmers Matchbook Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11.5f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 2nd 50/1
12 Aug 26 Kempton (AW) Backer Bilk (GB)J: George Wood Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts Handicap StakesClass 5 · 12f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 8th 33/1
10 Aug 26 Kempton (AW) Mehmas Engine (IRE)J: Rhys Clutterbuck Unibet Supporting Safer Gambling Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 14 ran 10th 100/1
06 Aug 26 Sandown Lunario (IRE)J: Marco Ghiani BetMGM 80s Day Saturday 29 August Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 6th 12/1
03 Aug 26 Windsor Panthere Noir (GB)J: Jude Fernandes Talk Sport Classified StakesClass 6 · 10f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 3rd 5/2F
01 Aug 26 Lingfield Panthere Noir (GB)J: Ryan Kavanagh Happy 50th Birthday Joanne Baker Classified StakesClass 6 · 10f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 1st 5/4F
25 Jul 26 Lingfield Mister Pretentious (GB)J: Kieran O'Neill Pristine Landscaping & Garden Maintenance Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 4th 18/1
25 Jul 26 Lingfield Panthere Noir (GB)J: Kieran O'Neill Pristine Specialist Cleaning Services Handicap StakesClass 6 · 14f · Good To Firm · 4 ran 2nd 9/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Luke Dace's strike rate?
Luke Dace has won 23 of 301 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7.6% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Luke Dace do best at?
Kempton (AW) by strike rate: 7 wins from 70 runners (10%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Luke Dace?
Jack Dace, with 109 runners since 2022 — 36% of the total. That pairing has won 10 (9.2%).
Is Luke Dace in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Luke Dace's Fair A/E?
1.03, from 299 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).