Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 90 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 10% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.06).
Deterministic profile computed from 438 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 21 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance30.6% when favouriteSends off the favourite in 11% of races
The read
It is weakest at Kempton (AW) (2.7% over 37 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Runners with a claiming rider up have been a poor signal at 1.9% (n=54, Fair A/E 0.36). The yard also reads well off a 8-14-day break (15.7%, n=70). One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the IRE Incentive Scheme Dick Poole Fillies' Stakes at Salisbury (Sep 2021, £25,520). The stable star of the record: Tigerfish (IRE) — 9 wins from 49 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 10.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4.5%−5.8
n=66 · A/E 0.57 · £1 −46.62
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−10.3
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−10.3
n=29 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −29.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−10.3
n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
37.5%+27.2
n=8 · A/E 5.01 · £1 +39.38
When favourite
30.6%
n=49 · A/E 1.12 · £1 +1.33
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
1.9%−8.4
n=54 · A/E 0.36 · £1 −48.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−10.3
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With claiming riders up1.9% vs 10.3% · n=54
On last-time-out winners19% vs 10.3% · n=42
With Kieran Shoemark18.2% vs 10.3% · n=33
At Kempton (AW)2.7% vs 10.3% · n=37
With Marco Ghiani3.2% vs 10.3% · n=31
Off a 8-14-day break15.7% vs 10.3% · n=70
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)177179.6%−43.84
Good to Firm7656.6%−34.67
Good76810.5%+41.00
Good to Soft53713.2%−2.50
Soft3925.1%−33.50
Heavy17635.3%+18.50
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Chelmsford City (AW)5858.6%+4.38
Yarmouth5658.9%−9.88
Leicester5235.8%−25.00
Newmarket48612.5%−2.67
Lingfield (AW)44511.4%−26.22
Kempton (AW)3712.7%−28.00
Newmarket26311.5%+6.50
Southwell (AW)23313%+9.62
Wolverhampton (AW)15320%−3.62
Nottingham13215.4%+0.00
Ascot1119.1%−1.00
Windsor1000%−10.00
Sandown9222.2%+1.88
Newbury8112.5%+26.00
Doncaster6116.7%−1.50
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 61732212.7%−9.60
Class 41061211.3%−12.24
Class 59977.1%+2.50
Class 330413.3%−5.67
Class 22400%−24.00
Class 1600%−6.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite581729.3%1.10+1.33
2nd–3rd fav72912.5%0.72−24.34
4th–6th fav132129.1%1.25+8.50
7th+ in betting17674%1.34−40.50
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f192157.8%−68.55
1m – 1m1f1111210.8%−25.05
1m2f – 1m4f8889.1%+22.88
Under 6f25312%+9.00
1m5f – 2m21733.3%+7.71
2m1f – 2m4f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202210066%−32.00
2023941010.6%+12.75
2024901112.2%−1.04
20258589.4%−31.50
2026691014.5%−3.22
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps3344112.3%+11.04
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners1982512.6%−35.21
11-13 runners12597.2%−38.25
5-7 runners7568%−27.67
14-16 runners29413.8%+23.12
17+ runners6116.7%+28.00
2-4 runners500%−5.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 42 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 42 horses listed, 5 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Stuart Williams (2); 37 had their first archived run for this yard.
4 have since run for another yard; 38 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 6
Only 6 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
623510462181181511
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
128
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£1.00m
Prize money
2021
Best season · 15 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Romantic Time (GB) — IRE Incentive Scheme Dick Poole Fillies' Stakes (Group 3) Salisbury · Sep 2021 · Group 3
£25,520
Dashing Roger (GB) — Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Mile (Handicap) (Rnd) Ascot · Aug 2021 · Class 2
£20,656
Final Watch (GB) — Boodles Handicap Newmarket · Jul 2023 · Class 3
Progeny have won 9.9% of 3,712 runs since 2008 (243 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.9% from 641. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 290.
Progeny have won 10.8% of 3,106 runs since 2008 (337 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 5.9% from 324. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 14.7% from 312.
Progeny have won 9.4% of 7,590 runs since 2008 (492 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 12.7% from 557. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.8% from 109.
Progeny have won 12.1% of 1,562 runs since 2008 (164 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.1% from 450. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 16.1% from 137. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 5.5% from 200.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 1,427 · newest first
The latest 50 of 1,427 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 18 February 2005 to 20 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is William Stone's strike rate?
William Stone has won 45 of 438 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 10.3% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does William Stone do best at?
Newmarket by strike rate: 6 wins from 48 runners (12.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is William Stone in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 6 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is William Stone's Fair A/E?
1.06, from 436 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
William Stone·SR 10.3%·A/E 1.06
KTB
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