Brett Johnson
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Sends out around 80 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.61).
The record is strongest at Brighton (10.5%, n=38), clear of the yard's 5.5% baseline. It is weakest at Kempton (AW) (2.3% over 88 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 2% (n=49, Fair A/E 0.28). William Carson rides 18% of the entries and edges the yard's average (7.9% vs 5.5%, A/E 0.81). The yard also reads well on Good to Firm going (10.2%, n=49). The record reads poorly over 1m2f – 1m4f — 0.9% over 112 runners, 4.6pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard in Class 5: Fair A/E 0.24 across 100 runners (2% strike, −96.87 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Treetops Hotel (IRE) — 8 wins from 38 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jan–Feb.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.5% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses trained
same window as header · most-raced firstWhen the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasonsJockey bookings
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires in the string
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 1,802 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 1,802 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 22 January 2005 to 6 November 2025.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Brett Johnson's strike rate?
- Brett Johnson has won 23 of 416 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 5.5% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Brett Johnson do best at?
- Brighton by strike rate: 4 wins from 38 runners (10.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Who rides most for Brett Johnson?
- William Carson, with 76 runners since 2022 — 18% of the total. That pairing has won 6 (7.9%).
- What is Brett Johnson's Fair A/E?
- 0.61, from 415 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.