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Trainer profile

Brett Johnson

416 runners in the last 5 seasons · 43 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 348 days ago 98% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2022
23–416
Wins / Runs
5.5%
Strike rate
n=416
99 (24%)
Placed
0.61
Fair A/E
n=415 · 0.53 incl. margin
−248.41
£1 level stake
n=416 at SP · −59.7%
£301k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
2.3%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 80 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.61).

Deterministic profile computed from 416 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Feb 16.7% when favourite William Carson: 7.9% from 76 Sends off the favourite in 7% of races
The read

The record is strongest at Brighton (10.5%, n=38), clear of the yard's 5.5% baseline. It is weakest at Kempton (AW) (2.3% over 88 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 2% (n=49, Fair A/E 0.28). William Carson rides 18% of the entries and edges the yard's average (7.9% vs 5.5%, A/E 0.81). The yard also reads well on Good to Firm going (10.2%, n=49). The record reads poorly over 1m2f – 1m4f — 0.9% over 112 runners, 4.6pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard in Class 5: Fair A/E 0.24 across 100 runners (2% strike, −96.87 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Treetops Hotel (IRE) — 8 wins from 38 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jan–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2%−3.5
n=49 · A/E 0.28 · £1 −41.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−5.5
n=22 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −22.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.5
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−5.5
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
7.7%+2.2
n=26 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −16.50
When favourite
16.7%
n=30 · A/E 0.53 · £1 −17.74
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
2.2%−3.3
n=93 · A/E 0.30 · £1 −82.67
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−5.5
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Over 1m2f – 1m4f 0.9% vs 5.5% · n=112
On Good to Firm going 10.2% vs 5.5% · n=49
At Brighton 10.5% vs 5.5% · n=38
In Class 5 2% vs 5.5% · n=100
With claiming riders up 2.2% vs 5.5% · n=93
At Kempton (AW) 2.3% vs 5.5% · n=88
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 406 23 5.7% −238.41
Hurdle 9 0 0% −9.00
NH Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 278 15 5.4% −170.16
Good to Firm 49 5 10.2% −3.00
Good 47 1 2.1% −44.25
Soft 19 0 0% −19.00
Good to Soft 17 2 11.8% −6.00
Heavy 5 0 0% −5.00
Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Lingfield (AW) 114 7 6.1% −60.49
Kempton (AW) 88 2 2.3% −70.50
Chelmsford City (AW) 42 3 7.1% −25.50
Brighton 38 4 10.5% −16.75
Wolverhampton (AW) 26 2 7.7% −12.17
Windsor 24 0 0% −24.00
Epsom Downs 16 0 0% −16.00
Lingfield 10 0 0% −10.00
Southwell (AW) 8 1 12.5% −1.50
Sandown 7 0 0% −7.00
Salisbury 6 2 33.3% +21.50
Bath 6 0 0% −6.00
Leicester 6 0 0% −6.00
Chepstow 5 2 40% +6.00
Ascot 4 0 0% −4.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 231 15 6.5% −133.42
Class 5 100 2 2% −96.87
Class 4 71 5 7% −15.12
Class 3 12 1 8.3% −1.00
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 36 5 13.9% 0.47 −23.74
2nd–3rd fav 79 11 13.9% 0.92 −18.17
4th–6th fav 134 6 4.5% 0.59 −60.50
7th+ in betting 167 1 0.6% 0.21 −146.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Stopnsearch (GB) 35 0 9 30 Oct 24
Anisoptera (IRE) 31 1 9 18 Jan 25
Roscioli (GB)from Andrew Balding 27 3 10 8 Sep 25
Damascus Finish (IRE) 23 1 4 9 Sep 23
Moel Arthur (USA) 20 2 9 26 Aug 25
Dembe (GB)from Ismail Mohammed · then Simon Pearce 20 4 9 1 Mar 24
Beautiful Crown (GB)then Jack Jones 20 0 5 26 Sep 23
Rocking Ends (GB)then Tom Clover 19 3 7 1 Feb 24
Merry Minister (IRE)from Ed Walker 16 1 4 24 Apr 25
Dulcet Spirit (GB)from Marcus Tregoning 16 2 5 20 Apr 24
Lethal Angel (GB)from Anthony Carson 16 3 5 27 Oct 23
Starry Eyes (USA)from Anthony Carson 15 1 3 5 Oct 23
All 43 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 43 horses listed, 26 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Frank Bishop (3) and Anthony Carson (2); 17 had their first archived run for this yard.

12 have since run for another yard, most often for Colin Teague (2); 31 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
81266321363004
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderWilliam Carson
18% of all rides
7.9% SR · A/E 0.81
RiderRWSR£1
William Carson 76 6 7.9% −34.70
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
154
Archived wins
£998k
Prize money
2022
Best season · 13 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Dembe (GB) — Betway All-Weather Vase Middle Distance Handicap Lingfield (AW) · Apr 2022 · Class 3
£33,501
Elna Bright (GB) — Brunswick Handicap (Str) Ascot · Sep 2009 · Class 2
£12,462
Evident Pride (USA) — William Hill January Sale - Enhanced Favourites! Handicap Lingfield (AW) · Jan 2009 · Class 2
£11,657
Notable horses
Treetops Hotel (IRE) Eagle Nebula (GB) Evident Pride (USA) King's Colour (GB) Rakematiz (GB) Dangerous Ends (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Territories (IRE) 8.3% · 3–36
Progeny have won 10.2% of 3,601 runs since 2008 (348 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 13.3% from 533.
War Command (USA) 0% · 0–35
Progeny have won 9.6% of 2,273 runs since 2008 (200 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 4.6% from 285.
Casamento (IRE) 3.2% · 1–31
Progeny have won 8.6% of 3,620 runs since 2008 (299 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 5.6% from 497. Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 4.9% from 287.
Markaz (IRE) 4.3% · 1–23
Progeny have won 9.6% of 997 runs since 2008 (66 horses).
Garswood (GB) 19% · 4–21
Progeny have won 8.4% of 1,919 runs since 2008 (163 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 3.8% from 132.
Churchill (IRE) 5% · 1–20
Progeny have won 11% of 4,781 runs since 2008 (458 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,802 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,802 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 22 January 2005 to 6 November 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
06 Nov 25 Chelmsford City (AW) Sail On Sailor (GB)J: Paddy Bradley Betfair Racing Podcasts NurseryClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 7 ran 7th 40/1
04 Nov 25 Lingfield (AW) Mary Rose (GB)J: Gina Mangan Create Your Bet Builders At Midnite HandicapClass 6 · 16f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 125/1
15 Oct 25 Kempton (AW) Mary Rose (GB)J: Paddy Bradley Unibet More Extra Place Races Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 12f · Standard To Slow · 9 ran 6th 250/1
09 Oct 25 Chelmsford City (AW) Night Arc (GB)J: Kieran Shoemark Betfair Plays Different HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 8 ran 4th 5/1
08 Oct 25 Kempton (AW) Sail On Sailor (GB)J: Jack Mitchell Unibet More Extra Place Races EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 5 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 9 ran 9th 100/1
01 Oct 25 Kempton (AW) Night Arc (GB)J: Ashley Lewis Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 10 ran 5th 25/1
28 Sep 25 Epsom Downs Mary Rose (GB)J: Ashley Lewis Betfred 'PickYourPunt' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 10f · Good · 5 ran 5th 150/1
18 Sep 25 Kempton (AW) Night Arc (GB)J: Paddy Bradley Bet At racingtv.com Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 9th 6/1
11 Sep 25 Epsom Downs Sail On Sailor (GB)J: Ashley Lewis Yale Smart Stride EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 4th 40/1
08 Sep 25 Lingfield (AW) Roscioli (GB)J: Ashley Lewis Sky Sports Racing Virgin 519 HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 16/1
03 Sep 25 Kempton (AW) Mary Rose (GB)J: Callum Shepherd Unibet/EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 12f · Standard To Slow · 5 ran 5th 150/1
31 Aug 25 Brighton Roscioli (GB)J: Paddy Bradley It Takes A Village HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Good · 11 ran 10th 33/1
26 Aug 25 Lingfield (AW) Moel Arthur (USA)J: Mr David Dunsdon Sky Sports Racing Virgin 519 Amateur Jockeys' HandicapClass 5 · 16f · Standard · 8 ran 6th 11/4
11 Aug 25 Kempton (AW) Sail On Sailor (GB)J: Paddy Bradley Unibet/EBF Newcomers' 'Confined' Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 10 ran 6th 80/1
04 Aug 25 Lingfield (AW) Formal Address (GB)J: Kieran O'Neill Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap (AWT) (Div 1)Class 6 · 8f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 22/1
02 Aug 25 Lingfield Roscioli (GB)J: Ashley Lewis Josh Is Getting Hitched Apprentice HandicapClass 5 · 9f · Good · 5 ran 4th 16/1
25 Jul 25 Sandown Moel Arthur (USA)J: Neil Callan Close Brothers Handicap (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 14f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 16/1
05 Jul 25 Leicester Roscioli (GB)J: Charlie Bennett High Noon Black Cherry Vodka Soda HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 5th 14/1
05 Jul 25 Leicester Formal Address (GB)J: Charlie Bennett Dark Horse Chardonnay HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 10th 25/1
21 Jun 25 Lingfield Formal Address (GB)J: Charlie Bennett Sky Sports Racing Virgin 535 Classified StakesClass 6 · 11.5f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 5th 9/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Brett Johnson's strike rate?
Brett Johnson has won 23 of 416 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 5.5% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Brett Johnson do best at?
Brighton by strike rate: 4 wins from 38 runners (10.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Brett Johnson?
William Carson, with 76 runners since 2022 — 18% of the total. That pairing has won 6 (7.9%).
What is Brett Johnson's Fair A/E?
0.61, from 415 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).