Leo Roussel
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 90 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.07). The rider is in form now — 4 winners in the last fortnight, above their own baseline.
It is weakest at Chantilly (FR) (1.8% over 55 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 4.8% (n=124, Fair A/E 0.69). First rides on a horse are the standout value angle: 9.5% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.19 and +80.40 to a £1 stake over 285 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The market has consistently overbet claiming rides: 6.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.66 and −36.90 to a £1 stake over 104 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Right now the rider is firing: 4 winners from 20 rides in the last 14 days (20%, 11pts above the 9% baseline). E D Monfort supplies 34% of the rides and sits below the rider's average (5% vs 9%, A/E 0.58). The rider also reads well on Soft going (14.5%, n=145) and on Heavy going (16.2%, n=37). The record reads poorly on Standard (AW) going — 3.5% over 170 rides, 5.5pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the The Aga Khan Studs Prix des Greniers a Sel at Deauville (FR) (Aug 2025, £21,033).
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 9% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
In formBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2020→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 491 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 491 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 27 November 2020 to 6 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Leo Roussel's strike rate?
- Leo Roussel has won 42 of 469 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 9% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Leo Roussel do best at?
- Saint-Cloud (FR) by strike rate: 10 wins from 78 rides (12.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Leo Roussel ride most for?
- E D Monfort, with 161 rides since 2022 — 34% of the total. That pairing has won 8 (5%).
- Is Leo Roussel in form?
- In the last 14 days: 20 rides, 4 winners, a strike rate of 20%. That is above the baseline of 9% since 2022.
- What is Leo Roussel's Fair A/E?
- 1.07, from 467 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.