No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 2.9% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
4.5%+1.6
n=22 · A/E 2.03 · £1 +59.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−2.9
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
0%−2.9
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
When favourite
0%
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
1.8%−1.1
n=57 · A/E 0.37 · £1 −53.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−2.9
n=26 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −26.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 1m5f – 2m6.5% vs 2.9% · n=31
In Hurdle races0% vs 2.9% · n=35
When claiming1.8% vs 2.9% · n=57 · A/E 0.37
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle3500%−35.00
Chase1218.3%−8.00
Flat1218.3%+69.00
NH Flat1100%−11.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good2414.2%−20.00
Good to Firm1516.7%+66.00
Soft1500%−15.00
Good to Soft1000%−10.00
Heavy400%−4.00
Standard (AW)200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Catterick12216.7%+73.00
Sedgefield800%−8.00
Newcastle700%−7.00
Hexham700%−7.00
Carlisle500%−5.00
Kelso500%−5.00
Ayr400%−4.00
Wetherby300%−3.00
Musselburgh300%−3.00
Market Rasen200%−2.00
Aintree200%−2.00
Cheltenham100%−1.00
Kempton100%−1.00
Huntingdon100%−1.00
Haydock100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 43013.3%−26.00
Class 61616.3%+65.00
Class 51300%−13.00
Class 31000%−10.00
Class 2100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite200%0.00−2.00
2nd–3rd fav5120%1.49−1.00
4th–6th fav1300%0.00−13.00
7th+ in betting5012%1.14+31.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m3126.5%+54.00
2m1f – 2m4f2300%−23.00
2m5f – 3m700%−7.00
1m2f – 1m4f500%−5.00
Over 3m300%−3.00
6f – 7f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20083812.6%+43.00
20092713.7%−23.00
2010500%−5.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps2400%−24.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners2500%−25.00
14-16 runners2200%−22.00
8-10 runners15213.3%+70.00
17+ runners400%−4.00
5-7 runners400%−4.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 25 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
By month
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
008000·330000
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
High Bird Humphrey (GB) — Book On-line At Catterickbridge.co.uk Maiden Chase Catterick · Mar 2009 · Class 4
£3,383
Spiders Star (GB) — Best Uk Racecourses On Turftv Selling Stakes Catterick · Aug 2008 · Class 6
Progeny have won 9.8% of 799 runs since 2008 (70 horses).
Snurge (IRE)0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 8.8% of 1,506 runs since 2008 (135 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 12.5% from 176. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.8% from 520.
April Night (FR)0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 11.9% of 614 runs since 2008 (61 horses).
Endoli (USA)0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 8.5% of 223 runs since 2008 (19 horses).
Cayman Kai (IRE)25% · 1–4
Progeny have won 7.9% of 317 runs since 2008 (22 horses).
Paris House (GB)0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 6.8% of 443 runs since 2008 (46 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 10.1% from 119. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13% from 146. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 3.4% from 174.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 85 · newest first
The latest 50 of 85 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 1 November 2007 to 14 June 2010.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Michael Naughton's strike rate?
Michael Naughton has won 2 of 70 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 2.9% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Michael Naughton's Fair A/E?
0.68, from 70 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Michael Naughton·SR 2.9%·A/E 0.68
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