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Trainer profile

John Davies

105 runners in the last 5 seasons · 17 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 315 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2022
4–105
Wins / Runs
3.8%
Strike rate
n=105
19 (18%)
Placed
0.69
Fair A/E
n=103 · 0.56 incl. margin
−37.97
£1 level stake
n=105 at SP · −36.2%
£44,783
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.69).

Deterministic profile computed from 105 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 4.2%
The read

The yard also reads well off a 15-30-day break (8.6%, n=35). The stable star of the record: Alfred Richardson (GB) — 6 wins from 39 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−3.8
n=25 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −25.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−3.8
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−3.8
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−3.8
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
25%
n=4 · A/E 0.98 · £1 +0.20
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.2%+0.4
n=48 · A/E 0.81 · £1 +7.33

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Off a 15-30-day break 8.6% vs 3.8% · n=35
Over 6f – 7f 6.1% vs 3.8% · n=49
In Class 6 5.3% vs 3.8% · n=57 · A/E 0.65
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 91 4 4.4% −23.97
Hurdle 11 0 0% −11.00
NH Flat 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 36 1 2.8% +15.00
Good 26 2 7.7% −17.47
Soft 15 0 0% −15.00
Good to Firm 13 0 0% −13.00
Good to Soft 12 1 8.3% −4.50
Heavy 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Newcastle (AW) 34 1 2.9% +17.00
Catterick 21 1 4.8% −16.67
Redcar 13 1 7.7% −8.80
Carlisle 9 0 0% −9.00
Thirsk 7 1 14.3% +0.50
Sedgefield 5 0 0% −5.00
Ripon 4 0 0% −4.00
Doncaster 4 0 0% −4.00
Southwell (AW) 2 0 0% −2.00
Wetherby 2 0 0% −2.00
Hexham 2 0 0% −2.00
Beverley 1 0 0% −1.00
Newcastle 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 57 3 5.3% +5.70
Class 5 33 1 3% −28.67
Class 4 14 0 0% −14.00
Class 3 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 5 1 20% 0.82 −0.80
2nd–3rd fav 11 1 9.1% 0.62 −6.67
4th–6th fav 27 1 3.7% 0.61 −19.50
7th+ in betting 62 1 1.6% 0.73 −11.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Highjacked (GB) 24 1 10 9 Sep 25
Garifullina (GB) 17 2 5 9 Dec 25
Curious Mrs Fox (GB)then David Thompson 12 0 2 15 Oct 24
Alanine (GB) 10 0 0 28 Dec 23
Cornell (GB) 10 0 1 27 Jan 23
Ideal Dream (GB) 8 1 1 8 Sep 23
Carlos Garcia (GB) 3 0 0 26 Nov 25
Ideal Dragon (GB) 3 0 0 13 Feb 24
Pixie Carter (GB) 3 0 0 18 Jun 22
Ooh La Lah (GB) 3 0 0 13 Jun 22
Tykenwear (GB) 3 0 0 7 Jun 22
Ideal Quest (GB) 2 0 0 27 Nov 25
All 17 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 17 horses listed, none arrived from another yard in our archive — all 17 had their first archived run here.

1 has since run for another yard; 16 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
00029001500000
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderAmie Waugh
39% of all rides
4.9% SR · A/E 0.84
RiderRWSR£1
Amie Waugh 41 2 4.9% +14.33
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2006→
42
Archived wins
£296k
Prize money
2017
Best season · 9 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Kommander Kirkup (GB) — Totescoop6 The Millionaire Maker Handicap Thirsk · Apr 2016 · Class 4
£6,469
Alfred Richardson (GB) — Ramsdens Currency - Best Rates Guaranteed Handicap Ripon · Jul 2019 · Class 4
£6,340
Alfred Richardson (GB) — sunracing.co.uk Handicap Newcastle (AW) · Nov 2018 · Class 4
£5,531
Notable horses
Alfred Richardson (GB) The Osteopath (IRE) Im Dapper Too (GB) Mango Chutney (GB) Highjacked (GB) Major Rowan (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Dick Turpin (IRE) 4.2% · 1–24
Progeny have won 7.8% of 1,368 runs since 2008 (103 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 11.7% from 247. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 4.7% from 149. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 4.1% from 271.
Cannock Chase (USA) 4.5% · 1–22
Progeny have won 7.5% of 307 runs since 2008 (33 horses).
Dragon Dancer (GB) 0% · 0–19
Progeny have won 8.8% of 566 runs since 2008 (80 horses).
Mondialiste (IRE) 11.8% · 2–17
Progeny have won 6.5% of 905 runs since 2008 (104 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 11.5% from 131. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 3.2% from 283.
Bobby's Kitten (USA) 0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 8% of 1,666 runs since 2008 (144 horses).
Champs Elysees (GB) 0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 11.5% of 7,118 runs since 2008 (521 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.9% from 391. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.5% from 387.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 714 · newest first

The latest 50 of 714 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 21 February 2006 to 9 December 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
09 Dec 25 Newcastle (AW) Garifullina (GB)J: Sean Kirrane Midnite Are Upping The Betting Game Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 14 ran 5th 14/1
27 Nov 25 Newcastle (AW) Ideal Quest (GB)J: Shane Gray Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 300/1
26 Nov 25 Newcastle (AW) Carlos Garcia (GB)J: Rhys Elliott Build Your Acca With Betuk Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 100/1
18 Nov 25 Newcastle (AW) Garifullina (GB)J: Kevin Stott Create Your Bet Builders At Midnite Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 14 ran 4th 28/1
07 Nov 25 Newcastle (AW) Ideal Quest (GB)J: Sean Kirrane Read Meg Nicholls' Blog At betmgm.co.uk EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 300/1
01 Nov 25 Newcastle (AW) Ideal Attraction (GB)J: Amie Waugh Always Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 7 ran 7th 125/1
21 Oct 25 Newcastle (AW) Garifullina (GB)J: Sean Kirrane Midnite: Built For 2025 Not 2005 HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 13 ran 8th 28/1
09 Sep 25 Catterick Highjacked (GB)J: David Nolan Racing TV Club Day HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good · 8 ran 8th 14/1
05 Aug 25 Catterick Garifullina (GB)J: Sean Kirrane Racing Again 18th August HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 3/1
23 Jul 25 Catterick Highjacked (GB)J: Oisin Orr Racing Again 5th August HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Soft · 9 ran 4th 10/3
10 Jul 25 Carlisle Ideal Dudley (GB)J: Rhys Elliott Rachael Bell Wealth Management Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 8f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 14th 125/1
10 Jul 25 Carlisle Carlos Garcia (GB)J: Sam James Rachael Bell Wealth Management Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 8f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 13th 33/1
27 Jun 25 Newcastle (AW) Highjacked (GB)J: Sean Kirrane Take The Lead With X3 Consulting HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 12/1
27 Jun 25 Newcastle (AW) Carlos Garcia (GB)J: Sean Kirrane JenningsBet In Shiremoor Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 200/1
09 Apr 25 Catterick Highjacked (GB)J: Amie Waugh Racing Again 23rd April HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Good · 11 ran 8th 14/1
19 Oct 24 Catterick Highjacked (GB)J: Amie Waugh William Hill Committed To Top Prices Veterans' HandicapClass 4 · 6f · Soft · 11 ran 7th 6/1
15 Oct 24 Newcastle (AW) Garifullina (GB)J: Sean Kirrane Get The Inside Track With raceday-ready.com HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 22/1
15 Oct 24 Newcastle (AW) Curious Mrs Fox (GB)J: Sean Kirrane Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 33/1
04 Oct 24 Newcastle (AW) Curious Mrs Fox (GB)J: Sean Kirrane Elite Venue Selection Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 16/1
02 Oct 24 Catterick Garifullina (GB)J: Sean Kirrane Racingtv.Com HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Soft · 10 ran 2nd 6/4F

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is John Davies's strike rate?
John Davies has won 4 of 105 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 3.8% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does John Davies do best at?
Newcastle (AW) by strike rate: 1 wins from 34 runners (2.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is John Davies's Fair A/E?
0.69, from 103 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).