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Trainer profile

Tim Vaughan

744 runners in the last 5 seasons · 114 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner yesterday 90% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2022
68–744
Wins / Runs
9.1%
Strike rate
n=744
196 (26%)
Placed
0.87
Fair A/E
n=742 · 0.75 incl. margin
−288.09
£1 level stake
n=743 at SP · −38.8%
£777k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
1.2%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 150 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 9% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.87). Horses in first-time headgear strike at 11% (35 runs, true-first definition).

Deterministic profile computed from 744 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance 24.2% when favourite Alan Johns: 11.2% from 403 Sends off the favourite in 8% of races
The read

It is weakest at Uttoxeter (1.7% over 60 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants struggle at 0% (n=37, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 7% strike, Fair A/E 0.75 and −128.14 to a £1 stake over 213 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Alan Johns rides 54% of the entries and edges the yard's average (11.2% vs 9.1%, A/E 1.00) — the market has that partnership priced right. The record reads poorly over 1m2f – 1m4f — 0% over 33 runners, 9.1pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Standard (AW) going: Fair A/E 0.31 across 50 runners (2% strike, −40.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 7 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase at Ayr (Apr 2011, £102,618). The stable star of the record: Dovils Date (GB) — 12 wins from 53 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7%−2.1
n=213 · A/E 0.75 · £1 −128.14
New recruits · first run for the yard
8.7%−0.4
n=46 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −34.20
Debutants · first career start
0%−9.1
n=37 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −37.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
11.4%+2.3
n=35 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −11.04
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−9.1
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
When favourite
24.2%
n=62 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −20.73
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8.4%−0.7
n=143 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −70.54
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−9.1
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With debutants 0% vs 9.1% · n=37
Over 1m2f – 1m4f 0% vs 9.1% · n=33
On last-time-out winners 16.4% vs 9.1% · n=73
At Uttoxeter 1.7% vs 9.1% · n=60
On Standard (AW) going 2% vs 9.1% · n=50
In Flat races 2.8% vs 9.1% · n=71
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 372 31 8.3% −187.36
Chase 279 35 12.5% −51.23
Flat 71 2 2.8% −27.50
NH Flat 22 0 0% −22.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 259 28 10.8% −94.87
Good to Soft 190 17 8.9% −77.96
Soft 169 11 6.5% −74.92
Heavy 61 9 14.8% +11.28
Standard (AW) 50 1 2% −40.50
Good to Firm 15 2 13.3% −11.12

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Chepstow 126 9 7.1% −57.37
Ffos Las 88 9 10.2% −30.96
Uttoxeter 60 1 1.7% −52.00
Hereford 40 3 7.5% −24.74
Taunton 40 5 12.5% −21.00
Exeter 27 3 11.1% +4.50
Warwick 26 3 11.5% −14.29
Lingfield 25 2 8% −11.00
Ludlow 20 0 0% −20.00
Newton Abbot 18 1 5.6% −14.25
Wolverhampton (AW) 17 0 0% −17.00
Bangor-on-Dee 16 3 18.8% −2.38
Huntingdon 16 1 6.3% −14.09
Plumpton 15 1 6.7% −11.25
Fontwell 15 3 20% −0.97

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 328 29 8.8% −155.17
Class 4 277 26 9.4% −123.67
Class 3 65 7 10.8% −7.75
Class 6 39 2 5.1% +4.50
Class 2 25 3 12% −5.00
Class 1 6 1 16.7% +3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 75 16 21.3% 0.75 −29.23
2nd–3rd fav 162 23 14.2% 0.81 −63.86
4th–6th fav 242 20 8.3% 1.01 −71.00
7th+ in betting 264 8 3% 1.14 −124.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
84% completed · 651 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 279 78.5% 10 5 45 0 0
Hurdle 372 88.2% 2 3 38 1 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Bells Of Peterboro (IRE) 27 2 9 27 Jan 26
Silver In Disguise (GB) 21 3 9 29 Oct 24
Twilight Glory (GB) 20 4 8 20 Mar 25
Colonial Empire (GB) 19 3 8 26 Mar 26
Weaver's Answer (GB) 19 2 8 8 Dec 25
Mourzouk (IRE) 16 3 4 12 Mar 25
Bells Of Ufford (IRE) 15 0 3 14 Oct 26
Crossbeau (IRE)from Ian McInnes 15 1 3 27 Jan 26
Airtothethrone (IRE)then Billy Aprahamian 15 1 5 28 Nov 24
Jean Genie (FR)from Pierre Raussin 15 0 7 17 Jul 24
Bells Of Stamford (IRE) 15 2 6 26 Jun 24
Holeshot (IRE) 14 2 3 9 Oct 26
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 114 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 26 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Mitchell Hunt (3) and F-M Cottin (2); 34 had their first archived run for this yard.

6 have since run for another yard; 54 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 9
Only 9 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
9109139711067810
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderAlan Johns
54% of all rides
11.2% SR · A/E 1.00
RiderRWSR£1
Alan Johns 403 45 11.2% −101.82
Charlie Price 64 8 12.5% −14.87
Mr Edward Vaughan 41 4 9.8% −17.67
David Noonan 33 3 9.1% −24.46
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
886
Archived wins
7
Pattern / graded wins
£6.03m
Prize money
2011
Best season · 108 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Beshabar (IRE) — Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Ayr · Apr 2011 · Grade 3
£102,618
Saint Are (FR) — John Smith's Sefton Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) Aintree · Apr 2011 · Class 1
£56,520
Spirit of Adjisa (IRE) — Cathal Ryan Memorial Champion Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) Punchestown · May 2011 · Grade 1
£49,600
Notable horses
Dovils Date (GB) Eva's Oskar (IRE) Little Shilling (IRE) Wings Of Smoke (IRE) Bells Of Peterboro (IRE) First Fandango (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Kayf Tara (GB) 2.6% · 1–38
Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,739 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.
Dunaden (FR) 8.8% · 3–34
Progeny have won 9.6% of 628 runs since 2008 (69 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 15.7% from 102.
Fame And Glory (GB) 15.6% · 5–32
Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,203 runs since 2008 (504 horses).
Carlotamix (FR) 7.4% · 2–27
Progeny have won 10.1% of 1,031 runs since 2008 (114 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 15% from 160. Weakest on Good going: 6.7% from 270.
Bated Breath (GB) 8.7% · 2–23
Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,128 runs since 2008 (669 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.7% from 843.
Presenting (GB) 14.3% · 3–21
Progeny have won 11% of 20,049 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 7,176 · newest first

The latest 50 of 7,176 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 16 June 2005 to 19 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
19 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Opticality (GB)J: Sean Kirrane bettingsites.co.uk Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11f · Standard · 9 ran 7th 40/1
14 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Double Time (GB)J: Callum Hutchinson Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Div II)Class 5 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 9 ran 8th 28/1
14 Oct 26 Ffos Las Bells Of Ufford (IRE)J: David Noonan Ethical Packaging Novices' Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 2nd 14/1
10 Oct 26 Chepstow Golden Maverick (FR)J: Lorcan Murtagh Dragonbet John Ayres Memorial Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 23.5f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 7th 33/1
10 Oct 26 Chepstow Love Sonnet (IRE)J: David Noonan McCarthy Construction Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 9th 18/1
09 Oct 26 Chepstow Calme Olympien (FR)J: David Noonan LSL Racing Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 4th 25/1
09 Oct 26 Chepstow Holeshot (IRE)J: David Noonan Dragonbet Daily Dragonboosts Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 6th 33/1
08 Oct 26 Bath Shakura Sky Zayin (A) (A)J: Mr Laurie Gallacher Spillers ULCA Fibre Handicap Stakes (0-55) - Arab Race10f · Good · 5 ran 3rd 13/2
07 Oct 26 Worcester Rob Farmer (GB)J: Alex Chadwick Step Into Luxury With Purple Granite National Hunt Flat Race (catgory 2 Elimination) (Conditional And Amateur Jockeys) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 9th 33/1
04 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Raging Al (IRE)J: David Noonan F Ball Yellow Bucket Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good · 11 ran 9th 28/1
29 Sep 26 Bath Zayin Zikario (A) (A)J: Mr Laurie Gallacher Carbonnetzero Handicap Stakes (Arab Race)10f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 6th 12/1
01 Sep 26 Lingfield (AW) Zayin Zikario (A)J: Mr Laurie Gallacher Rapido Racing LTD Conditions Arab Stakes8f · Standard · 4 ran 4th 22/1
26 Aug 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Shakura Sky Zayin (A)J: Rhys Clutterbuck Spillers ULCA Power Cubes Handicap Stakes (0-60) - Arab Race8.5f · Standard · 8 ran 5th 12/1
25 Aug 26 Stratford Bells Of Ufford (IRE)J: David Noonan Stratford Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 22f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 4th 6/1
20 Aug 26 Lingfield (AW) Double Time (GB)J: Callum Hutchinson Follow @attheraces On X Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 28/1
06 Aug 26 Chepstow Polemon (GB)J: William Carver Wasdell Group Supports Chepstow Centenary Celebrations Handicap StakesClass 5 · 12f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 7th 200/1
24 Jul 26 Uttoxeter Golden Maverick (FR)J: David Noonan Louise Hall Hen Party Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 20f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 80/1
24 Jul 26 Uttoxeter Jack's A Legend (GB)J: Miss Imogen Mathias Craig Reid Retirement Handicap Steeple Chase (ARC Summer Chase Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 24f · Good · 14 ran 12th 25/1
23 Jul 26 Sandown Double Time (GB)J: Callum Hutchinson Billy Ocean Live At Sandown Park 29 July Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 12th 25/1
10 Jul 26 Worcester Bells Of Ufford (IRE)J: David Noonan Martin Keighley Racing Club Handicap Hurdle Race (Div I)Class 5 · 20f · Good · 6 ran 5th 7/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Tim Vaughan's strike rate?
Tim Vaughan has won 68 of 744 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 9.1% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Tim Vaughan do best at?
Taunton by strike rate: 5 wins from 40 runners (12.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Tim Vaughan?
Alan Johns, with 403 runners since 2022 — 54% of the total. That pairing has won 45 (11.2%).
Is Tim Vaughan in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 9 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Tim Vaughan's Fair A/E?
0.87, from 742 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).