No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceFirst rides: 18.8%Claiming: 13.3%
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 13.2% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
18.8%+5.6
n=32 · A/E 2.67 · £1 +36.25
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
30%+16.8
n=10 · A/E 1.68 · £1 +0.50
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
16.7%+3.5
n=24 · A/E 2.09 · £1 −7.25
When favourite
40%
n=5 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −0.68
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
13.3%+0.1
n=90 · A/E 1.39 · £1 −0.93
Big fields · 14+ runners
6.3%−6.9
n=48 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −10.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 13.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On first rides for the horse18.8% vs 13.2% · n=32
In Flat races11.1% vs 13.2% · n=36
Over 1m5f – 2m14.5% vs 13.2% · n=62 · A/E 1.44
In NH Flat races14.5% vs 13.2% · n=55 · A/E 1.43
When claiming13.3% vs 13.2% · n=90 · A/E 1.39
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
NH Flat55814.5%−0.93
Flat36411.1%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good2827.1%−3.00
Good to Firm17317.6%−9.18
Soft17423.5%+26.00
Good to Soft1218.3%−6.00
Heavy1218.3%−8.75
Firm3133.3%+1.00
Standard (AW)200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Punchestown1119.1%+10.00
Naas8112.5%+13.00
Leopardstown8225%−1.25
Bellewstown600%−6.00
Galway600%−6.00
Listowel5360%+8.25
Fairyhouse500%−5.00
Tipperary400%−4.00
Roscommon400%−4.00
Curragh400%−4.00
Down Royal3133.3%−1.43
Limerick300%−3.00
Killarney300%−3.00
Gowran Park3266.7%+16.00
Clonmel300%−3.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 42150%+1.50
Class 1100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite7342.9%1.31+0.57
2nd–3rd fav22627.3%1.68+4.50
4th–6th fav2514%0.60−12.00
7th+ in betting3725.4%1.75+5.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m62914.5%−0.18
2m1f – 2m4f23313%+4.25
1m2f – 1m4f600%−6.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20088112.5%−4.00
20091200%−12.00
201033515.2%+28.75
201138615.8%−14.68
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1000%−10.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
17+ runners3226.3%+2.00
11-13 runners18316.7%−6.00
14-16 runners1616.3%−12.00
8-10 runners15533.3%+22.50
5-7 runners10110%−8.43
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 33 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
By month
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
00250202380142700
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Progeny have won 10% of 19,711 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 195.
Redback (GB)16.7% · 1–6
Progeny have won 7.6% of 2,888 runs since 2008 (249 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 3.9% from 181.
Sadler's Wells (USA)16.7% · 1–6
Progeny have won 11.3% of 4,636 runs since 2008 (370 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 18.7% from 107.
Sakhee (USA)33.3% · 2–6
Progeny have won 11.1% of 3,981 runs since 2008 (296 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 611. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.2% from 139.
Fraam (GB)0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 9.3% of 2,027 runs since 2008 (136 horses).
Kahyasi (IRE)0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 10.7% of 2,120 runs since 2008 (185 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 109 · newest first
The latest 50 of 109 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 30 April 2006 to 23 October 2011.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Mr P J McMahon's strike rate?
Mr P J McMahon has won 12 of 91 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 13.2% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Mr P J McMahon's Fair A/E?
1.38, from 91 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Mr P J McMahon·SR 13.2%·A/E 1.38
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