Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 80 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 5% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.05).
Deterministic profile computed from 383 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 22 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 5.4%Alan O'Sullivan: 4.8% from 84Claiming riders: 5.8%
The read
Alan O'Sullivan rides 22% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (4.8%, A/E 0.98) — the market has that partnership priced right. The record reads poorly off a 8-14-day break — 1.7% over 58 runners, 3.5pts below the baseline. 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Tim Duggan Memorial Handicap Chase at Limerick (Dec 2007, £29,295). The stable star of the record: A Decent Excuse (IRE) — 6 wins from 63 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5.4%+0.2
n=74 · A/E 1.28 · £1 −44.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−5.2
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Debutants · first career start
4.4%−0.8
n=45 · A/E 2.11 · £1 −12.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−5.2
n=21 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −21.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
4.2%−1.0
n=24 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −15.50
When favourite
22.2%
n=9 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −1.79
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.8%+0.6
n=258 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −152.13
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−5.2
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Off a 8-14-day break1.7% vs 5.2% · n=58
Over 1m5f – 2m2.4% vs 5.2% · n=83
Off a 15-30-day break7.6% vs 5.2% · n=118
With a new jockey booking3.3% vs 5.2% · n=183 · A/E 0.85
Over 2m1f – 2m4f6.8% vs 5.2% · n=147 · A/E 1.27
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle24493.7%−190.79
Chase10976.4%−61.34
NH Flat20315%+2.50
Flat10110%+11.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft12186.6%−73.17
Good10243.9%−61.67
Good to Soft8655.8%−41.17
Heavy7434.1%−62.62
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Cork6534.6%−42.50
Killarney5123.9%−29.50
Limerick4724.3%−39.00
Listowel4736.4%−9.67
Clonmel2926.9%−16.67
Thurles2314.3%−18.67
Tipperary17211.8%−1.50
Tramore1600%−16.00
Fairyhouse15213.3%−7.62
Punchestown1300%−13.00
Ballinrobe1100%−11.00
Galway1100%−11.00
Gowran Park500%−5.00
Cartmel400%−4.00
Kilbeggan400%−4.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 43133.3%+3.50
Class 5300%−3.00
Class 3200%−2.00
Class 1100%−1.00
Class 2100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite13323.1%1.12−1.46
2nd–3rd fav431125.6%1.79+18.33
4th–6th fav7845.1%0.81−28.00
7th+ in betting24920.8%0.38−227.50
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f147106.8%−60.84
2m5f – 3m13186.1%−87.29
1m5f – 2m8322.4%−68.50
Over 3m1900%−19.00
1m2f – 1m4f200%−2.00
1m – 1m1f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2022121119.1%−53.84
20238233.7%−63.62
20245323.8%−32.50
20257833.8%−44.17
20264912%−44.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps180126.7%−99.79
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners13596.7%−84.51
17+ runners9311.1%−86.50
11-13 runners8045%−51.12
8-10 runners6058.3%−8.00
5-7 runners1400%−14.00
2-4 runners11100%+5.50
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 68 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 11 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Tom Lacey (3); 49 had their first archived run for this yard.
13 have since run for another yard, most often for W P Mullins (2); 47 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
41293613350508
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
84
Archived wins
3
Pattern / graded wins
£1.12m
Prize money
2022
Best season · 11 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Time To Sell (IRE) — Tim Duggan Memorial Handicap Chase (0-140) Limerick · Dec 2007 · Grade C
£29,295
It Came To Pass (IRE) — St. James's Place Foxhunter Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Cheltenham · Mar 2020 · Class 2
£26,685
Head Waiter (IRE) — Kerryman Long Distance Handicap Hurdle (0-140) Killarney · Jul 2007
Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,807 runs since 2008 (704 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 203. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.3% from 816.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 1,836 · newest first
The latest 50 of 1,836 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2005 to 6 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Eugene M O'Sullivan's strike rate?
Eugene M O'Sullivan has won 20 of 383 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 5.2% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Eugene M O'Sullivan do best at?
Listowel by strike rate: 3 wins from 47 runners (6.4%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Eugene M O'Sullivan?
Alan O'Sullivan, with 84 runners since 2022 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (4.8%).
What is Eugene M O'Sullivan's Fair A/E?
1.05, from 383 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Eugene M O'Sullivan·SR 5.2%·A/E 1.05
KTB
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