Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceClaiming: 12.7%
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 11.8% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
9.2%−2.6
n=65 · A/E 1.17 · £1 −21.80
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
40%+28.2
n=5 · A/E 2.81 · £1 +6.80
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
9.7%−2.1
n=31 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −7.30
When favourite
28.6%
n=7 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −1.40
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
12.7%+0.9
n=63 · A/E 1.41 · £1 +4.20
Big fields · 14+ runners
8.7%−3.1
n=23 · A/E 1.75 · £1 −6.40
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
25%+13.2
n=4 · A/E 4.58 · £1 +2.60
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On Heavy going7% vs 11.8% · n=43
In Chase races16.7% vs 11.8% · n=36
On Soft going16% vs 11.8% · n=50
At Auteuil (FR)8.5% vs 11.8% · n=59
Off a 15-30-day break15.2% vs 11.8% · n=33
In Hurdle races8.9% vs 11.8% · n=56
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle5658.9%−26.70
Chase36616.7%+22.80
Flat100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft50816%+16.40
Heavy4337%−21.30
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Auteuil (FR)5958.5%−12.90
Compiegne (FR)29620.7%+13.00
Pau (FR)200%−2.00
Clairefontaine (FR)200%−2.00
Fontainebleau (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 14125%+2.60
Class 2100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite8337.5%1.26+1.10
2nd–3rd fav13323.1%1.45+7.90
4th–6th fav24416.7%1.86+13.50
7th+ in betting4812.1%0.63−27.40
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f77911.7%+2.70
2m5f – 3m900%−9.00
1m5f – 2m6233.3%+2.40
Over 3m100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2017100%−1.00
2019200%−2.00
2021100%−1.00
2022100%−1.00
20231516.7%−2.80
20241000%−10.00
202538410.5%−2.40
202625624%+15.30
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps35411.4%−0.80
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners37616.2%+5.30
11-13 runners2627.7%−9.00
14-16 runners14214.3%+2.60
17+ runners900%−9.00
5-7 runners7114.3%+5.20
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 65 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
1 from 4
Only 4 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
By month
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
·08172600·58140
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 13.1% of 3,559 runs since 2010 (411 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 16.6% from 729. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 6.6% from 152.
Crillon (FR)0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 14.2% of 981 runs since 2009 (97 horses).
Progeny have won 13.6% of 979 runs since 2013 (131 horses). Strongest on Good going: 23.5% from 226. Weakest on Soft going: 9.8% from 315. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 16.7% from 144.
Kapgarde (FR)0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 12.4% of 6,646 runs since 2008 (727 horses).
Progeny have won 12.8% of 750 runs since 2021 (150 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 9.7% from 267. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 18.3% from 142.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 93 · newest first
The latest 50 of 93 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 27 April 2017 to 11 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Quentin Samaria's strike rate?
Quentin Samaria has won 11 of 93 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 11.8% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Quentin Samaria do best at?
Auteuil (FR) by strike rate: 5 wins from 59 rides (8.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is Quentin Samaria in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 4 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Quentin Samaria's Fair A/E?
1.34, from 93 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Quentin Samaria·SR 11.8%·A/E 1.34
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