Sibylle Vogt
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 20 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.76).
Rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 1.7% (n=59, Fair A/E 0.33). The market has consistently overbet the rider over 1m – 1m1f: Fair A/E 0.56 across 63 rides (3.2% strike, −42.90 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Grosser Preis von Tattersalls at Baden-Baden (GER) (Jun 2026, £34,783).
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2013→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 287 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 287 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 8 June 2013 to 28 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Sibylle Vogt's strike rate?
- Sibylle Vogt has won 6 of 121 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 5% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Sibylle Vogt do best at?
- Chantilly (FR) by strike rate: 2 wins from 64 rides (3.1%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- What is Sibylle Vogt's Fair A/E?
- 0.76, from 120 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.