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Trainer profile

Jean-Pierre Carvalho

168 runners in the last 5 seasons · 46 individual horses
As at 7 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Won yesterday Last runner yesterday 100% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2009→)
from 1 Jan 2022
12–168
Wins / Runs
7.1%
Strike rate
n=168
33 (20%)
Placed
0.98
Fair A/E
n=167 · 0.80 incl. margin
−55.32
£1 level stake
n=167 at SP · −33.1%
£255k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
13%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 7% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.98).

Deterministic profile computed from 168 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 7 Nov 2026
The read

The record is strongest at Deauville (FR) (13.3%, n=30), clear of the yard's 7.1% baseline. The yard also reads well over 6f – 7f (13.5%, n=52) and off a 15-30-day break (13.5%, n=52). The record reads poorly over 1m2f – 1m4f — 2.4% over 41 runners, 4.7pts below the baseline. 11 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Criterium International at Longchamp (FR) (Oct 2019, £128,694).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6.3%−0.8
n=48 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −14.20
New recruits · first run for the yard
21.4%+14.3
n=14 · A/E 2.42 · £1 +1.88
Debutants · first career start
0%−7.1
n=27 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −27.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−7.1
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
33.3%+26.2
n=3 · A/E 9.20 · £1 +12.70
When favourite
20%
n=10 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −3.22
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−7.1
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−7.1
n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Over 6f – 7f 13.5% vs 7.1% · n=52
Off a 15-30-day break 13.5% vs 7.1% · n=52
On Standard (AW) going 13% vs 7.1% · n=46
At Deauville (FR) 13.3% vs 7.1% · n=30
Over 1m2f – 1m4f 2.4% vs 7.1% · n=41
On Good to Soft going 2.5% vs 7.1% · n=40
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 50 3 6% −15.20
Standard (AW) 46 6 13% +14.48
Good to Soft 40 1 2.5% −31.60
Good 22 2 9.1% −13.00
Heavy 10 0 0% −10.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Chantilly 57 4 7% −31.00
Deauville (FR) 30 4 13.3% +13.48
Longchamp (FR) 26 2 7.7% +2.80
Saint-Cloud (FR) 26 1 3.8% −19.60
Dieppe (FR) 6 0 0% −6.00
Amiens (FR) 6 1 16.7% +1.00
Clairefontaine (FR) 6 0 0% −6.00
Vittel (FR) 3 0 0% −3.00
Compiegne (FR) 3 0 0% −3.00
Lyon Parilly (FR) 1 0 0% −1.00
Nancy (FR) 1 0 0% —
Fontainebleau (FR) 1 0 0% −1.00
Cagnes-Sur-Mer (FR) 1 0 0% −1.00
Le Mans (FR) 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 16 0 0% −16.00
Class 3 8 2 25% +1.00
Class 4 3 1 33.3% +4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 14 4 28.6% 1.33 +1.78
2nd–3rd fav 23 1 4.3% 0.31 −16.60
4th–6th fav 43 5 11.6% 1.43 +5.10
7th+ in betting 87 2 2.3% 0.78 −45.60
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Chanel Gold (FR)then J Reynier 14 2 5 5 Sep 24
Likethewind (FR) 9 1 1 28 Oct 26
Borcano (IRE)from N Caullery 9 1 1 24 Aug 26
Alisto King (IRE) 9 0 0 12 Jun 25
Yuna (FR) 7 0 0 28 Oct 26
Alparslan (FR)from Mario Hofer 7 1 3 15 Oct 26
Lanzelot Gold (FR)then J Reynier 7 0 3 28 Oct 24
Amazon Prince (IRE)from N Caullery 7 1 1 21 Sep 24
Mythicara (IRE) 7 0 0 22 Oct 23
Gold Player (FR)from C Boutin · then C Escuder 6 2 3 10 Aug 24
It's Only Love (FR)from Jane Soubagne 5 0 1 6 Nov 26
Liv Gold (FR)then J Reynier 5 0 0 29 Aug 24
All 46 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 46 horses listed, 15 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from N Caullery (2); 31 had their first archived run for this yard.

12 have since run for another yard, most often for J Reynier (3); 34 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
1 from 8
Only 8 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
·25060069915130
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Cristian Demuro 24 5 20.8% +27.28
Maxime Guyon 23 4 17.4% +2.30
Hugo Boutin 18 0 0% −18.00
Hugo Journiac 13 0 0% −13.00
Mathieu Calbrix 12 0 0% −12.00
Ioritz Mendizabal 8 0 0% −8.00
Theo Bachelot 6 0 0% −6.00
Aurelien Lemaitre 6 0 0% −6.00
Anthony Crastus 5 1 20% +2.00
Benjamin Marie 5 2 40% +23.10
Augustin Madamet 5 0 0% −5.00
Tony Piccone 4 0 0% −4.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2009→
64
Archived wins
11
Pattern / graded wins
£2.02m
Prize money
2013
Best season · 13 wins
Alson (GER) — Criterium International (2yo Colts & Fillies) (New Course: 2nd Post) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · Oct 2019 · Group 1
£128,694
Savoir Vivre (IRE) — Lucien Barriere Grand Prix de Deauville (3yo+) (Turf) Deauville (FR) · Aug 2016 · Group 2
£83,824
Walzertakt (GER) — Prix Maurice de Nieuil (4yo+) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · Jul 2015 · Group 2
£57,442
Notable horses
Zaubertanzerin (GER) Chanel Gold (FR) Walzertakt (GER) Moonshiner (GER) Usbeke (GER) Gold Player (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Toronado (IRE) 6.3% · 1–16
Progeny have won 10.5% of 3,908 runs since 2018 (417 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.5% from 199. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 15.3% from 144.
Lawman (FR) 14.3% · 2–14
Progeny have won 8.9% of 9,428 runs since 2011 (730 horses).
Dabirsim (FR) 0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 7.4% of 4,167 runs since 2017 (448 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.9% from 256. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12% from 209. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.7% from 146.
Kingman (GB) 0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 14.6% of 7,529 runs since 2018 (778 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 11% from 970. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 9% from 122.
Pinatubo (IRE) 11.1% · 1–9
Progeny have won 13.8% of 1,100 runs since 2024 (183 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 10.7% from 122.
U S Navy Flag (USA) 22.2% · 2–9
Progeny have won 8.6% of 1,412 runs since 2022 (147 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12% from 183.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 615 · newest first

The latest 50 of 615 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 7 August 2009 to 6 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
06 Nov 26 Deauville (FR) Petit Genie (FR)J: Benjamin Marie Prix De Croissanville7.5f · Standard · 13 ran 1st 20/1
06 Nov 26 Deauville (FR) It's Only Love (FR)J: Benjamin Marie Prix De La Banche9.5f · Standard · 9 ran 4th 14/1
30 Oct 26 Deauville (FR) It's Only Love (FR)J: Anthony Crastus Prix De La Rocque9.5f · Standard · 13 ran 7th 25/1
28 Oct 26 Amiens (FR) Likethewind (FR)J: Mathieu Calbrix Prix Des Benevoles (Prix Des Hortillonnages)Class 4 · 8f · Heavy · 7 ran 7th 11/4F
28 Oct 26 Amiens (FR) Petit Genie (FR)J: Eddy Hardouin Prix Des Socioprofessionnels (Prix Du Macaron)8f · Heavy · 11 ran 8th 5/2F
28 Oct 26 Amiens (FR) Djaveria (IRE)J: Mathieu Calbrix Prix Du Zenith D'amiens8f · Heavy · 11 ran 2nd 11/1
28 Oct 26 Amiens (FR) Yuna (FR)J: Mathieu Calbrix Prix De RoyeClass 3 · 11f · Heavy · 12 ran 9th 22/1
28 Oct 26 Le Mans (FR) Flavia Maxima (FR)J: Sibylle Vogt Prix Marcel CoutardClass 4 · 7f · Heavy · 13 ran 9th 12/1
22 Oct 26 Deauville (FR) Divo Two Times (FR)J: Cristian Demuro Prix De Castillon9.5f · Standard · 8 ran 1st 11/8F
15 Oct 26 Chantilly (FR) Alparslan (FR)J: Maxime Guyon Prix De L'amante InquieteClass 3 · 6f · Good · 16 ran 1st 7/2J
15 Oct 26 Chantilly (FR) Alparslan (FR)J: Maxime Guyon Prix De L'amante InquieteClass 3 · 6f · Good · 16 ran 1st 7/2J
14 Oct 26 Saint-Cloud (FR) It's Only Love (FR)J: Alexis Pouchin Prix Guemul8f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 6th 16/1
11 Oct 26 Nancy (FR) Yuna (FR)J: Mme Frida Valle Skar Prix Du Technopole De Brabois12.5f · Soft · 11 ran UR —
08 Oct 26 Saint-Cloud (FR) Petit Genie (FR)J: Cristian Demuro Prix D'ecquevilly8f · Soft · 8 ran 3rd 13/2
27 Sep 26 Amiens (FR) Likethewind (FR)J: Anthony Crastus Prix Du Pdv Pmu L'ocean Equihen-plage (Prix Edouard Acker)Class 4 · 8f · Soft · 14 ran 1st 6/1
27 Sep 26 Amiens (FR) Yuna (FR)J: Mathieu Calbrix Px Du Pdv Pmu Le Chalet Les Attaques (62) (Px Du Stade De La Licorne)11f · Soft · 10 ran 7th 20/1
24 Sep 26 Compiegne (FR) Djaveria (IRE)J: Theo Bachelot Prix De Vignemont8f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 7th 50/1
23 Sep 26 Chantilly (FR) It's Only Love (FR)J: Maxime Guyon Prix De La Mare Aux Oiseaux8f · Good · 7 ran 5th 10/1
19 Sep 26 Chantilly (FR) Alparslan (FR)J: Maxime Guyon Prix De La Galerie De La PeintureClass 3 · 6f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 5th 15/2
19 Sep 26 Chantilly (FR) Alparslan (FR)J: Maxime Guyon Prix De La Galerie De La PeintureClass 3 · 6f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 5th 15/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Jean-Pierre Carvalho's strike rate?
Jean-Pierre Carvalho has won 12 of 168 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7.1% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Jean-Pierre Carvalho do best at?
Deauville (FR) by strike rate: 4 wins from 30 runners (13.3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is Jean-Pierre Carvalho in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 8 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Jean-Pierre Carvalho's Fair A/E?
0.98, from 167 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 7 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).