1:44 Hamilton
This Class 5 amateur jockeys' handicap over 6f at Hamilton on soft ground features a compact field of six where recent form and course knowledge will be key. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 46 and 57, underlining the modest level of the contest and the likelihood that any edge in fitness or track familiarity could prove decisive. With a couple of confirmed front-runners and several hold-up types, the race sets up an interesting test of pace management on a surface that has favoured both Annie Edson Taylor and Thistle Nil in the past.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated given the presence of at least two habitual front-runners in Bay Breeze and Punchbowl Flyer, both of whom tend to race prominently. This early speed could set the race up for those racing off the pace, with the KTB notes highlighting that the tempo is likely to collapse late and play into the hands of hold-up performers. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate terms without overdoing it on the soft ground, or whether the late closers will be able to pick up the pieces in the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Annie Edson Taylor57/100
Annie Edson Taylor is a modest performer in decent heart, as her recent form figures of 616911 confirm. She has won three times from five runs at Hamilton and looks well placed from stall two, with the drop in class another positive. She has won on soft ground and at this trip, while the yard posts a 17% strike rate at the track from 77 runs. The 3lb claimer has only two previous rides here, a small sample that limits firm conclusions, yet the overall profile suggests she will be competitive once again.
-
2Thistle Nil KTB Selection57/100
Thistle Nil is another modest performer who has already won over this trip and on soft ground. He has won here from two starts at Hamilton and now steps back up from 5f, a move that looks fair given his record at the trip. The trainer's modest 10% strike rate at the track from a huge sample is offset by the jockey's solid 20% record from 15 rides. With a high-confidence hold-up run-style, he is well suited to the expected strong pace and could be ideally placed to capitalise if the leaders fold late.
-
3Bay Breeze56/100
Bay Breeze is a limited horse who has been in and out of form this year but showed his best when winning a similar race here in July. He acts on soft ground, having won four times from 11 starts on it, and has scored six times at this trip. The yard has a solid 15% strike rate at Hamilton from 643 runs, and he tends to make the running or race prominently, which will be significant given the projected strong pace. Stepping up in class is the main concern, yet his course record of one win from five starts keeps him firmly in the mix.
-
4Lumenbourg50/100
Lumenbourg is a modest performer who has been consistent without winning lately, finishing in the first three four times from his last six starts. He has been placed on both starts at Hamilton and is 1 from 7 at this trip, while he has also shown he can be competitive on soft ground with a placed effort from two starts. The yard has a solid 17% strike rate here from 110 runs, though the jockey is still seeking a first winner at the track from two rides. His high-confidence hold-up style should see him arriving late if the strong pace materialises as expected.
-
5Maldevious50/100
Maldevious is a modest performer who has shown a fair level of consistency this year without winning often. Placed on his only previous run at Hamilton and successful over today's trip, though his record on soft ground is limited to a single unplaced effort. The trainer's modest strike-rate here from 210 runs is worth noting while the jockey has had too few rides at the track to form any clear view.
-
6Punchbowl Flyer46/100
Punchbowl Flyer is a modest performer who has won twice this season but has been well held on his last two starts. His only visit to Hamilton yielded a fifth place finish while the yard's 12% strike rate here from 68 runs is respectable. Brodie Hampson is still seeking her first winner at the track from six rides, and he tends to make the running or race on the pace.
KTB verdict
The race looks set to be decided by how well the prominent horses can sustain their effort on soft ground against the hold-up brigade. Thistle Nil is the KTB Selection. He has already won over this trip, on soft ground and at Hamilton, and his hold-up style is perfectly suited to the likely strong pace that could collapse late. Annie Edson Taylor, with three course wins from five runs and a good draw, is the obvious main danger, while Bay Breeze's front-running ability and recent course success and Lumenbourg's consistency cannot be ignored.
KTB Selection Thistle Nil
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 28 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Annie Edson Taylor | 6/4 | William Hill |
| Thistle Nil | 8/1 | William Hill |
| Bay Breeze | 4/1 | Bet365 |
| Lumenbourg | 4/1 | Bet365 |
| Maldevious | 7/1 | 7Bet |
| Punchbowl Flyer | 9/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 1:44 Hamilton. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Hamilton racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Hamilton results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are most suited to the expected strong pace?
The hold-up horses Annie Edson Taylor, Thistle Nil, Lumenbourg and Maldevious are favoured by the likely strong pace that could collapse late.
How many course wins has Annie Edson Taylor recorded at Hamilton?
Annie Edson Taylor has won here three times from five runs.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Hamilton for the yard of the KTB Selection?
Jim Goldie has a 10% strike rate at Hamilton from 1712 runs.
Which runners have previous soft-ground form at this track?
Annie Edson Taylor has won from two starts on soft, Thistle Nil has one win from two on soft, Bay Breeze has four wins from 11 on soft, Lumenbourg has been placed once from two on soft, and Punchbowl Flyer has one win from 13 on soft.
Who are the two confirmed front-runners in the field?
Bay Breeze and Punchbowl Flyer both tend to make the running or race on the pace.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies