Skip to content
Jockey profile

Mr Paddy Barlow

135 rides in the last 5 seasons · 92 individual horses
As at 12 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride 2 days ago 90% of rides over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2019→)
from 1 Jan 2022
12–135
Wins / Runs
8.9%
Strike rate
n=135
31 (23%)
Placed
0.97
Fair A/E
n=135 · 0.83 incl. margin
−13.17
£1 level stake
n=135 at SP · −9.8%
£115k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
5.6%
KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 30 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 9% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.97).

Deterministic profile computed from 135 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 12 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance First rides: 9.8%
The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 2.9% (n=34, Fair A/E 0.30). The rider also reads well on Good going (15.1%, n=53) and in Class 4 (15.2%, n=46). The market has also underrated the rider over 2m5f – 3m: Fair A/E 1.15 across 52 rides (13.5% strike, +26.00 to a £1 stake). The record reads poorly on Good to Soft going — 2.2% over 46 rides, 6.7pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider in Class 5: Fair A/E 0.35 across 59 rides (3.4% strike, −33.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.9% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
9.8%+0.9
n=92 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −1.67
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
6.7%−2.2
n=15 · A/E 0.41 · £1 −10.67
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
2.9%−6.0
n=34 · A/E 0.30 · £1 −23.00
When favourite
0%
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
8.3%−0.6
n=120 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −22.17
Big fields · 14+ runners
5.9%−3.0
n=17 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −6.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Good to Soft going 2.2% vs 8.9% · n=46
On Good going 15.1% vs 8.9% · n=53
In Class 4 15.2% vs 8.9% · n=46
In Class 5 3.4% vs 8.9% · n=59
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 2.7% vs 8.9% · n=37
Over 2m5f – 3m 13.5% vs 8.9% · n=52
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 57 4 7% −10.50
Chase 54 5 9.3% +2.50
Flat 14 2 14.3% +1.33
NH Flat 10 1 10% −6.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 53 8 15.1% +37.00
Good to Soft 46 1 2.2% −42.50
Soft 19 1 5.3% −6.00
Heavy 9 1 11.1% +2.00
Standard (AW) 7 1 14.3% −2.67
Good to Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Sedgefield 11 0 0% −11.00
Market Rasen 9 2 22.2% +5.50
Hexham 8 2 25% +16.00
Kelso 7 1 14.3% +4.00
Wetherby 7 1 14.3% +6.00
Wincanton 5 0 0% −5.00
Stratford 5 0 0% −5.00
Warwick 5 0 0% −5.00
Leicester 5 0 0% −5.00
Cheltenham 4 1 25% +8.00
Cartmel 4 0 0% −4.00
Southwell 4 0 0% −4.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 4 1 25% +0.33
Perth 4 0 0% −4.00
Fakenham 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 59 2 3.4% −33.00
Class 4 46 7 15.2% +15.50
Class 6 11 1 9.1% −6.67
Class 3 8 1 12.5% +11.00
Class 2 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 10 1 10% 0.36 −6.50
2nd–3rd fav 26 2 7.7% 0.45 −18.17
4th–6th fav 46 7 15.2% 1.84 +38.50
7th+ in betting 53 2 3.8% 1.36 −27.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
73% completed · 111 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 54 64.8% 2 0 17 0 0
Hurdle 57 80.7% 1 0 10 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
The Whistle Blower (IRE) 7 0 0 12 May 25
Up With The Play (IRE) 6 0 1 19 Apr 22
Ashington (GB) 5 1 2 22 Mar 25
Farmer Jimmy (GB) 4 1 1 27 Mar 26
Grangeclare Diego (IRE) 4 1 2 27 Dec 25
Giovanni Change (FR) 3 1 1 14 Apr 26
Kilaro (FR) 3 1 2 21 Mar 26
Horizon Dove (FR) 3 0 0 17 Feb 25
Caballo Diablo (IRE) 3 0 0 25 Jan 25
Jackeline (GB) 3 0 0 1 Jan 25
Ladronne (FR) 3 0 1 30 May 24
Settle Down Jill (IRE) 2 1 1 6 May 26
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 92 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
07871513000201112
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
TrainerRWSR£1
Mark Walford 24 5 20.8% +19.33
Jonathan Barlow 21 1 4.8% −10.00
Seamus Mullins 11 1 9.1% +8.00
Victor Thompson 11 0 0% −11.00
Tim Easterby 4 1 25% −0.50
Tjade Collier 4 0 0% −4.00
Ewan Whillans 3 0 0% −3.00
Tom Weston 2 0 0% −2.00
E Turner 2 0 0% −2.00
Mrs Harriet Waight 2 1 50% +10.00
Paul Collins 2 0 0% −2.00
Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero 2 0 0% −2.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2019→
12
Archived wins
£117k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 6 wins
David Garrick (IRE) — Equine MediRecord Student Derby Handicap Curragh · Oct 2023
£8,850
I See You Well (FR) — Betfair Exchange Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Chase Sandown · Dec 2022 · Class 3
£7,700
Grangeclare Diego (IRE) — 100% RacingTV Profits Back To Racing Handicap Hurdle Market Rasen · Mar 2025 · Class 4
£5,809
Notable horses
Ashington (GB) Farmer Jimmy (GB) Grangeclare Diego (IRE) Kilaro (FR) Giovanni Change (FR) Settle Down Jill (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Flemensfirth (USA) 10% · 1–10
Progeny have won 11.8% of 17,295 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).
Fracas (IRE) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 9.7% of 796 runs since 2012 (56 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13% from 100. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 14.3% from 119. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.7% from 106.
Canford Cliffs (IRE) 20% · 1–5
Progeny have won 9.8% of 5,091 runs since 2015 (314 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.8% from 263.
Mondialiste (IRE) 20% · 1–5
Progeny have won 6.4% of 918 runs since 2021 (108 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 11.2% from 134. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 3.1% from 286.
Mount Nelson (GB) 20% · 1–5
Progeny have won 10% of 6,287 runs since 2012 (538 horses).
Affinisea (IRE) 50% · 2–4
Progeny have won 13.3% of 1,305 runs since 2022 (209 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 146 · newest first

The latest 50 of 146 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 31 May 2019 to 10 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
10 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Kilkee Bay (IRE)T: E McNamara Michael O'Sullivan & Lorna Brooke Ireland V Britain (Q.R.) Challenge Handicap Steeplechase24f · Good To Yielding · 5 ran 3rd 11/2
28 Sep 26 Hamilton Lumenbourg (GB)T: Julie Camacho Clearwater Dc Ltd Environmental Solutions Amateur Jockeys' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Soft · 6 ran 3rd 5/1
15 May 26 Aintree Well This Won't Do (IRE)T: David Phelan 'Point To Point' Bumper NH Flat Race (Amateur Jockeys' Race) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 14 ran 9th 40/1
06 May 26 Kelso Settle Down Jill (IRE)T: Norman Sanderson Aidan & Margaret McDonnell's Golden Anniversary Open Hunters' ChaseClass 4 · 23.5f · Good · 7 ran 1st 10/1
01 May 26 Warwick Mister Splash (IRE)T: E Turner Pertemps Network Intermediate Point-To-Point Hunters' ChaseClass 4 · 25.5f · Good · 6 ran PU 17/2
14 Apr 26 Market Rasen Giovanni Change (FR)T: Mark Walford CopyBet Supporting UK Horse Racing Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 3/1F
13 Apr 26 Fakenham Mister Splash (IRE)T: E Turner Sandcliff Cromer 'Grassroots' Maiden Hunters' Chase (For The Turner Trophy)Class 5 · 24f · Good · 4 ran 2nd 8/13F
09 Apr 26 Aintree Java Point (IRE)T: Lemos De Souza Randox Foxhunters' Open Hunters' ChaseClass 2 · 21f · Good To Soft · 24 ran PU 66/1
27 Mar 26 Wetherby Farmer Jimmy (GB)T: Mark Walford Malton Marquees Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 24f · Good · 15 ran 4th 11/2
23 Mar 26 Wincanton Balboa (GB)T: Seamus Mullins Cheese & Cider Raceday April 1st Amateur Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 24.5f · Good · 10 ran 3rd 8/1
21 Mar 26 Kelso Kilaro (FR)T: Tim Easterby Racing Post+ Jodami Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 3rd 5/1
19 Mar 26 Sedgefield De Deli Counter (GB)T: Mark Walford Paxtons No1 CaseIH Dealer In UK&Ireland Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20f · Good · 11 ran 3rd 14/1
17 Mar 26 Exeter Crawter (IRE)T: Mrs Harriet Waight Totnes And Bridgetown Races Company Ltd Open Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 8th 10/3
09 Mar 26 Stratford Wottinger (GB)T: Mrs John Dawson DragonBet Safer Gambling Tools No Roar Tonight Novices' Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 21f · Soft · 7 ran 3rd 5/1
18 Feb 26 Southwell Farmer Jimmy (GB)T: Mark Walford Ladies Day Sunday 16th August Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Soft · 11 ran 6th 9/1
14 Feb 26 Haydock Settle Down Jill (IRE)T: Norman Sanderson Walrus Open Hunters' ChaseClass 3 · 22f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 5th 66/1
29 Jan 26 Wincanton Go Sacre Go (FR)T: Robert Walford It Pays To Buy Irish Stewart Tory Memorial Open Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 25f · Heavy · 6 ran PU 12/1
15 Jan 26 Newcastle Kilaro (FR)T: Tim Easterby Download The Raceday Ready App Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 17f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 5th 2/1F
29 Dec 25 Kelso Super Citizen (GB)T: Lucinda Hughes AJA Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 26f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 4th 12/1
27 Dec 25 Wetherby Grangeclare Diego (IRE)T: Jonathan Barlow William Hill Racing Bet Builder Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 24f · Soft · 8 ran PU 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Mr Paddy Barlow's strike rate?
Mr Paddy Barlow has won 12 of 135 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8.9% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Mr Paddy Barlow in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 1 ride, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Mr Paddy Barlow's Fair A/E?
0.97, from 135 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 12 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).