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Trainer profile

John O'Shea

739 runners in the last 5 seasons · 64 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 6 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2022
58–739
Wins / Runs
7.8%
Strike rate
n=739
176 (24%)
Placed
0.83
Fair A/E
n=735 · 0.74 incl. margin
−263.88
£1 level stake
n=739 at SP · −35.7%
£520k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
5.4%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 150 runners a season, winning with 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.83).

Deterministic profile computed from 739 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Apr–May 22% when favourite Gina Mangan: 5.5% from 145 Sends off the favourite in 8% of races
The read

The record is strongest at Chelmsford City (AW) (14.7%, n=34), clear of the yard's 7.8% baseline. It is weakest at Wolverhampton (AW) (3.4% over 116 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 3.4% (n=119, Fair A/E 0.60). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 7.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.85 and −136.21 to a £1 stake over 286 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Gina Mangan rides 20% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (5.5% vs 7.8%, A/E 0.62). The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (15.7%, n=51). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 35 runners, 7.8pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Casino 36 Stockport "Fixed Brush" Novices' Hurdle at Haydock (Nov 2006, £19,518). The stable star of the record: Swendab (IRE) — 17 wins from 147 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Apr–May.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.4%−4.4
n=119 · A/E 0.60 · £1 −82.67
New recruits · first run for the yard
3.6%−4.2
n=28 · A/E 0.68 · £1 −11.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−7.8
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
7.1%−0.7
n=14 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −6.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
6.9%−0.9
n=58 · A/E 0.84 · £1 +8.50
When favourite
22%
n=59 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −20.17
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
7.7%−0.1
n=286 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −136.21

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Off a 0-7-day break 15.7% vs 7.8% · n=51
Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 7.8% · n=35
At Windsor 0% vs 7.8% · n=34
At Chelmsford City (AW) 14.7% vs 7.8% · n=34
With horses switching code 2.2% vs 7.8% · n=45
At Wolverhampton (AW) 3.4% vs 7.8% · n=116
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 590 45 7.6% −250.76
Hurdle 120 11 9.2% +3.58
Chase 15 2 13.3% −2.70
NH Flat 14 0 0% −14.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 212 13 6.1% −74.37
Good 193 21 10.9% −54.20
Good to Firm 127 11 8.7% −54.39
Good to Soft 95 7 7.4% −15.17
Soft 82 5 6.1% −52.75
Heavy 22 1 4.5% −5.00
Firm 8 0 0% −8.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Chepstow 159 19 11.9% −38.75
Wolverhampton (AW) 116 4 3.4% −64.25
Kempton (AW) 50 4 8% +9.50
Bath 40 3 7.5% −15.80
Brighton 36 4 11.1% −18.59
Chelmsford City (AW) 34 5 14.7% −7.62
Windsor 34 0 0% −34.00
Ffos Las 34 2 5.9% −19.00
Hereford 23 1 4.3% −18.67
Newton Abbot 21 2 9.5% −12.70
Ludlow 19 2 10.5% −7.00
Leicester 18 1 5.6% +3.00
Salisbury 16 1 6.3% −13.25
Stratford 14 2 14.3% +12.00
Newbury 11 0 0% −11.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 344 28 8.1% −119.63
Class 5 244 24 9.8% −57.30
Class 4 117 5 4.3% −57.95
Class 3 19 1 5.3% −14.00
Class 2 15 0 0% −15.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 71 16 22.5% 0.78 −21.54
2nd–3rd fav 123 21 17.1% 0.93 +11.66
4th–6th fav 227 17 7.5% 0.95 −35.00
7th+ in betting 318 4 1.3% 0.46 −219.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Some Nightmare (IRE)from Gordon Elliott 62 5 21 27 Sep 26
Letter Of The Law (IRE)from George Boughey 57 3 15 20 Oct 25
Romanovich (IRE)from Kevin Ryan 45 7 14 28 Sep 26
Macs Dilemma (IRE)from E Sheehy 44 6 13 28 Sep 26
Punchbowl Flyer (IRE)from Eve Johnson Houghton 38 3 9 28 Sep 26
Dundory (IRE)from A J Martin · then Micky Hammond 37 4 13 18 Oct 24
Fiddlers Green (IRE)from John Joseph Murphy 29 4 10 8 Apr 26
Marisitta (GB) 25 1 4 27 Sep 26
Just The Man (FR)from Clive Cox 25 1 5 8 Mar 25
Outback Frontiers (IRE) 23 2 6 4 Feb 26
Get The Value (IRE) 22 2 7 13 Jul 26
Maasai Mara (GB)from John & Thady Gosden 17 1 4 6 Aug 26
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 64 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 35 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from George Boughey (2) and John Joseph Murphy (2); 25 had their first archived run for this yard.

12 have since run for another yard, most often for Adrian Wintle (2) and Christopher Mason (2); 48 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
67719107685474
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderGina Mangan
20% of all rides
5.5% SR · A/E 0.62
RiderRWSR£1
Gina Mangan 145 8 5.5% −106.25
William Carson 69 6 8.7% −13.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
272
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£1.73m
Prize money
2022
Best season · 22 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Kanpai I (IRE) — Casino 36 Stockport "Fixed Brush" Novices' Hurdle Haydock · Nov 2006 · Class 2
£19,518
Kanpai (IRE) — Persian War Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) Chepstow · Oct 2006 · Grade 2
£17,186
Tom Bell (IRE) — K W Bell Construction Handicap Hurdle Class D Hereford · May 2005 · Class 3
£10,589
Notable horses
Swendab (IRE) Major Valentine (GB) Some Nightmare (IRE) Peak Storm (GB) Kanpai (IRE) The Jailer (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Dream Ahead (USA) 8% · 8–100
Progeny have won 9.1% of 5,678 runs since 2008 (528 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6% from 184.
Lawman (FR) 5.3% · 3–57
Progeny have won 8.9% of 9,418 runs since 2008 (730 horses).
Dark Angel (IRE) 15.6% · 7–45
Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,876 runs since 2008 (1,594 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.
Coulsty (IRE) 13.6% · 6–44
Progeny have won 9.6% of 1,516 runs since 2008 (166 horses).
Holy Roman Emperor (IRE) 10.8% · 4–37
Progeny have won 10.3% of 11,867 runs since 2008 (949 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.9% from 305.
Intello (GER) 2.8% · 1–36
Progeny have won 10.6% of 3,471 runs since 2008 (389 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15% from 227. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.4% from 184.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 3,673 · newest first

The latest 50 of 3,673 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 14 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
14 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Maywedance (IRE)J: Ashley Lewis Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Fillies' Handicap Stakes (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 11f · Standard / Slow · 9 ran 6th 22/1
13 Oct 26 Leicester Massa Go Go (GB)J: Tyler Heard British EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (Div I) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 12th 300/1
28 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Macs Dilemma (IRE)J: William Carson Cavani Style & Speed Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 50/1
28 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Romanovich (IRE)J: William Carson Cavani Style & Speed Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 22/1
28 Sep 26 Hamilton Punchbowl Flyer (IRE)J: Miss Brodie Hampson Clearwater Dc Ltd Environmental Solutions Amateur Jockeys' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Soft · 6 ran 5th 14/1
27 Sep 26 Ffos Las Marisitta (GB)J: William Carson Bridge, For All Family Occasions Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 8f · Soft · 10 ran 8th 50/1
27 Sep 26 Ffos Las Some Nightmare (IRE)J: William Carson Bridge, Family Run And Proud Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Soft · 4 ran 4th 100/30
27 Sep 26 Ffos Las The Bear Of Saints (FR)J: William Carson Alex And Salvo Welcome You To The Bridge Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 3rd 10/1
23 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Maywedance (IRE)J: Ashley Lewis Unibet 40,000+ Live Streamed Events Handicap Stakes (London Middle Distance Qualifier)Class 6 · 11f · Standard / Slow · 14 ran 9th 33/1
12 Sep 26 Bath Some Nightmare (IRE)J: Alexandra Egan Andersons Drainage Serving The South West Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5.5f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 11/4
09 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Maywedance (IRE)J: Jack Mitchell Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11f · Standard / Slow · 12 ran 5th 22/1
07 Sep 26 Windsor Punchbowl Flyer (IRE)J: Alexandra Egan Matchbook Signup- Get 20% Back On Losses Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good · 13 ran 4th 14/1
31 Aug 26 Chepstow Some Nightmare (IRE)J: William Carson Tom's Big Bike Ride Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 2nd 7/1
31 Aug 26 Chepstow Marisitta (GB)J: William Carson Runtech Ltd Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 2nd 9/1
24 Aug 26 Windsor The Bear Of Saints (FR)J: Rob Hornby Windsor Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 7th 28/1
18 Aug 26 Chepstow Marisitta (GB)J: Ashley Lewis Saxon Automobiles Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 4th 14/1
18 Aug 26 Chepstow Some Nightmare (IRE)J: Gina Mangan Saxon Automobiles Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 2nd 11/1
15 Aug 26 Lingfield (AW) Punchbowl Flyer (IRE)J: Alexandra Egan Follow @Attheraces On Instagram Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 8 ran 7th 14/1
15 Aug 26 Lingfield (AW) Maywedance (IRE)J: Mason Paetel Download The At The Races App Handicap Stakes (Bath Summer Stayers' Series Qualifier)Class 6 · 13f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 20/1
12 Aug 26 Kempton (AW) Maywedance (IRE)J: Jack Mitchell Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts Handicap StakesClass 5 · 12f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 5th 20/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is John O'Shea's strike rate?
John O'Shea has won 58 of 739 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7.8% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does John O'Shea do best at?
Chelmsford City (AW) by strike rate: 5 wins from 34 runners (14.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for John O'Shea?
Gina Mangan, with 145 runners since 2022 — 20% of the total. That pairing has won 8 (5.5%).
Is John O'Shea in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is John O'Shea's Fair A/E?
0.83, from 735 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).