2:05 Cartmel
This Class 5 conditional jockeys' handicap hurdle at Cartmel over 2m1f46y on good to soft ground features a field of twelve where the KTB numbers point to a competitive but potentially tactical affair. The top two in the Fit rankings, Mr Lincoln (64) and Zamond (60), stand out on recent form and course knowledge, while the remainder are largely fair or modest performers with varying degrees of track experience. Overall the KTB assessments suggest a race that could hinge on how the uncontested lead is utilised and whether any of the held-up types can bridge the gap on this sharp track.
How the race shapes up
With a lone leader expected and high confidence in that assessment, the pace shape points to one horse getting an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in over this distance at Cartmel. The majority of the field, including all five principals, are held-up types who usually produce their effort late, meaning the race is likely to develop into a test of timing from off the pace. Malangen is the notable front-runner who may take that uncontested role. The key question is whether any of the patient runners can generate sufficient momentum in the latter stages to overcome the clear advantage afforded to the leader on this track.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Mr Lincoln KTB Selection64/100Mr Lincoln is a useful performer on his day with a solid recent record of 72-342 and has placed on his only visit to Cartmel.
- 2Zamond60/100Zamond is a useful performer with a solid record here, winning two of his seven Cartmel starts.
- 3Ambassador54/100Ambassador is a fair nine-year-old who knows this track, having won one of his two starts here.
- 4Alvesta49/100Alvesta is a fair performer who has won two of his three starts at Cartmel and is two from two at this trip.
- 5Masekela48/100Useful performer who has shown consistent form of late with two placed efforts at this track.
- 6Malangen47/100Malangen is a fair 11-year-old who has been competitive without winning of late, finishing second twice and placing on good to soft ground three times from seve…
- 7Lord Of The Glance45/100Lord Of The Glance is a fair performer who arrives in decent nick after a string of placed efforts and a recent second.
- 8Mr Globalist43/100Modest performer who has run six times at Cartmel without winning, recording a best of third on this track.
- 9Jeepydoff Meel43/100Modest performer who has placed twice from three runs at Cartmel without winning.
- 10Mi Sueno41/100Mi Sueno is a fair performer who has shown consistent form of late with two wins and a second in his last four starts.
- 11Sadies Diamond40/100Sadies Diamond is a fair performer who showed a bit more spark when third last time out after a lengthy break.
- 12Hopjes31/100Modest performer with a recent string of poor efforts including two pulled-up finishes.
The contenders
Mr Lincoln KTB Fit 64/100
Mr Lincoln is a useful performer on his day and arrives with a solid recent record of 72-342. He has placed on his only visit to Cartmel and steps up in trip today having last run over 1m2f, yet he is proven at this distance with four placed efforts from five starts. The Iain Jardine yard holds a 15% strike rate at the track from 52 runs, while jockey Charlie Maggs is operating at 13% from eight rides here. He has been placed once from four starts on good to soft ground and is expected to come from off the pace having usually been held up.
Zamond KTB Fit 60/100
Zamond is a useful performer with a solid record at Cartmel, winning two of his seven starts here. He has won three times at this trip from fourteen attempts and has been competitive on good to soft ground without winning on it. The Donald McCain yard has a 19% strike rate from 402 runs at the track, though the claiming jockey Mr Harry Brown has only one ride here so far. Usually held up, he will look to produce his effort late in a race where the pace may not be overly testing up front.
Ambassador KTB Fit 54/100
Ambassador is a fair nine-year-old who knows this track, having won one of his two starts at Cartmel. He has also won on good to soft ground and at today's trip, though his recent form of P68-95 shows he has been beaten a long way on his last two starts. The Micky Hammond yard's 11% strike rate at the course is offset by jockey Joshua Thompson's solid 15% record from twenty rides here. He is typically held up and will need to find more than he has shown lately to figure prominently.
Alvesta KTB Fit 49/100
Alvesta is a fair performer who has won two of his three starts at Cartmel and is two from two at this trip. He arrives in decent form having won two of his last three starts overall. The James Moffatt yard has a solid 12% strike rate here from a large sample of 729 runs, while jockey Leah Noreci is less established with an 8% record from 48 rides. He has shown little on good to soft ground from just one run so far and is another who is usually held up.
Masekela KTB Fit 48/100
Masekela is a useful performer who has shown consistent form of late with two placed efforts at this track. He has never won on good to soft ground from six attempts and remains winless at Cartmel from two starts, both thirds. The James Moffatt yard again has a solid 12% strike rate here from a big sample, while jockey Jack Power has only one ride at the course. Dropping in class, he is typically held up though that run-style carries medium confidence.
The rest of the field
MalangenKTB Fit 47/100
Malangen is a fair 11-year-old who has been competitive without winning of late, finishing second twice and placing on good to soft ground three times from seven starts. He has run only once at Cartmel, finishing fifth, while his trainer holds a 9% strike rate from 68 runs here, and today he steps up in trip for the first time in a while having failed to win in five previous attempts at this distance.
Lord Of The GlanceKTB Fit 45/100
Lord Of The Glance is a fair performer who arrives in decent nick after a string of placed efforts and a recent second. He has shown ability on good to soft ground but has never won on it, and steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question. The trainer has an 8% strike rate from 12 runs at Cartmel while the jockey is still seeking a first winner from six rides here.
Mr GlobalistKTB Fit 43/100
Mr Globalist is a modest performer who has run six times at Cartmel without winning, recording a best of third on this track. He has shown consistent enough form of late but is 0-10 at today's trip and has failed to place in three runs on good to soft ground. The trainer has a solid 11% strike rate here while the jockey is still seeking a first Cartmel success from five rides.
Jeepydoff MeelKTB Fit 43/100
Jeepydoff Meel is a modest performer who has placed twice from three runs at Cartmel without winning. He steps up in trip today having last run over 2m, though he has placed once at this distance in three attempts. The trainer records a 9% strike rate here from 68 runs while the jockey is 6% from 17 rides.
Mi SuenoKTB Fit 41/100
Mi Sueno is a fair performer who has shown consistent form of late with two wins and a second in his last four starts. He has placed both here and over today's trip without winning, and he acts on good to soft ground. The drop back in distance is an unknown and both trainer and jockey have only two runs each at Cartmel.
Sadies DiamondKTB Fit 40/100
Sadies Diamond is a fair performer who showed a bit more spark when third last time out after a lengthy break. The drop back in trip looks a sensible move given two previous runs at this distance though she remains unproven on good to soft ground. Trainer and jockey both have limited experience at Cartmel which adds uncertainty.
HopjesKTB Fit 31/100
Hopjes is a modest performer with a recent string of poor efforts including two pulled-up finishes. He drops back in trip having achieved little at this distance on his only previous attempt and has failed to place in two runs on good to soft ground. The trainer is 0-9 at Cartmel while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge.
KTB verdict
Mr Lincoln looks to have the best blend of recent form, course experience and proven stamina for the trip among the principals. His placed effort on his sole Cartmel run and four placed efforts from five starts at this distance give him a solid platform, while the yard and jockey both operate above the expected level at the track. The main dangers are likely to come from Zamond, who boasts two course wins and a strong local record, and Alvesta, who has won two of three starts here and arrives in good heart. Ambassador and Masekela cannot be entirely dismissed if the race shape plays into the hands of those coming from off the pace.
KTB Selection Mr Lincoln
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 29 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Mr Lincoln | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| Zamond | 11/2 | William Hill |
| Ambassador | 11/1 | 7Bet |
| Alvesta | 7/2 | Bet365 |
| Masekela | 12/1 | 7Bet |
| Malangen | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Lord Of The Glance | 7/1 | 7Bet |
| Mr Globalist | 14/1 | 7Bet |
| Jeepydoff Meel | 35/1 | 7Bet |
| Mi Sueno | 10/3 | Bet365 |
| Sadies Diamond | 14/1 | 7Bet |
| Hopjes | 70/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 2:05 Cartmel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Cartmel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Cartmel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to take the uncontested lead?
Malangen is the sole front-runner in a pace shape assessed with high confidence as a lone leader.
How many principals are typically held up in their run style?
All five principals – Mr Lincoln, Zamond, Ambassador, Alvesta and Masekela – are held-up types.
Which horse has the strongest Cartmel strike rate among the trainers in the field?
Donald McCain has a 19% strike rate at Cartmel from 402 runs, the highest listed.
Has Mr Lincoln won on good to soft ground?
No, he has been placed once from four starts on good to soft without a win.
Which horse is dropping in class today?
Masekela is dropping in class.
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