What is Donald McCain's strike rate?

Donald McCain has won 395 of 2,845 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 13.9% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Donald McCain do best at?

Sedgefield by strike rate: 38 wins from 200 runners (19%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Donald McCain?

Brian Hughes, with 1,155 runners since 2022 — 41% of the total. That pairing has won 219 (19%).

Is Donald McCain in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 14 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Donald McCain's Fair A/E?

0.96, from 2,834 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Donald McCain

2,845 runners in the last 5 seasons · 348 individual horses

As at 22 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 10.4% of 550 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 22 Oct 2026.

Last runner 4 days ago 92% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

395–2,845

Wins / Runs

13.9%

Strike rate

n=2,845

943 (33%)

Placed

0.96

Fair A/E

n=2,834 · 0.84 incl. margin

−634.05

£1 level stake

n=2,844 at SP · −22.3%

£4.64m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11.1%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 570 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 14% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.96).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,845 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 22 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Feb–Mar 38% when favourite Brian Hughes: 19% from 1,155 Sends off the favourite in 11% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Perth (28%, n=50), clear of the yard's 13.9% baseline. It is weakest at Cheltenham (0% over 30 runners) — the widest gap in the record. In Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 6.5% (n=62, Fair A/E 0.72). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 9.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.84 and −117.16 to a £1 stake over 588 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Brian Hughes rides 41% of the entries and beats the yard's average (19% vs 13.9%, A/E 0.97) — the market has that partnership priced right. The record reads poorly over 1m2f – 1m4f — 4.5% over 66 runners, 9.4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard in Class 1: Fair A/E 0.59 across 86 runners (4.7% strike, −64.38 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 26 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the John Smith's Grand National Chase at Aintree (Apr 2011, £535,135). The stable star of the record: Presentandcounting (IRE) — 15 wins from 52 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Feb–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 13.9% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

9.9%−4.0

n=588 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −117.16

New recruits · first run for the yard

12%−1.9

n=83 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −31.57

Debutants · first career start

13%−0.9

n=169 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −63.88

First-time headgear · true-first definition

14.4%+0.5

n=139 · A/E 1.09 · £1 +69.29

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

12.3%−1.6

n=65 · A/E 1.07 · £1 +7.50

When favourite

38%

n=326 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −39.31

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

12.3%−1.6

n=836 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −125.47

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

6.5%−7.4

n=62 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −40.38

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 13.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Perth 28% vs 13.9% · n=50

On last-time-out winners 23% vs 13.9% · n=400

At Cheltenham 0% vs 13.9% · n=30

In Class 1 4.7% vs 13.9% · n=86

At Southwell 2.8% vs 13.9% · n=36

Over 1m2f – 1m4f 4.5% vs 13.9% · n=66

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 1,765 244 13.8% −346.74

Chase 679 110 16.2% −145.11

Flat 234 17 7.3% −106.17

NH Flat 167 24 14.4% −36.03

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 1,234 184 14.9% −230.00

Good to Soft 689 99 14.4% −74.26

Soft 630 70 11.1% −281.63

Heavy 164 24 14.6% −26.30

Good to Firm 66 14 21.2% +6.64

Standard (AW) 62 4 6.5% −28.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Bangor-on-Dee 364 65 17.9% −57.35

Sedgefield 200 38 19% −37.72

Carlisle 185 30 16.2% −68.67

Uttoxeter 154 24 15.6% +36.86

Musselburgh 152 24 15.8% −53.18

Catterick 150 22 14.7% −6.65

Doncaster 123 20 16.3% +111.36

Haydock 119 15 12.6% −28.75

Wetherby 107 13 12.1% −46.37

Newcastle 98 18 18.4% −9.46

Worcester 91 10 11% −24.93

Kelso 89 14 15.7% −35.83

Aintree 84 7 8.3% −45.30

Market Rasen 83 7 8.4% −38.75

Ayr 78 5 6.4% −56.25

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 1,365 202 14.8% −270.90

Class 5 728 92 12.6% −70.41

Class 3 392 70 17.9% −122.43

Class 2 221 24 10.9% −67.76

Class 1 86 4 4.7% −64.38

Class 6 51 2 3.9% −37.17

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 373 136 36.5% 0.98 −42.82

2nd–3rd fav 901 150 16.6% 0.88 −240.73

4th–6th fav 1,003 92 9.2% 1.11 −145.50

7th+ in betting 567 16 2.8% 0.83 −205.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

91.1% completed · 2,444 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 679 86.2% 18 8 68 0 0

Hurdle 1,765 93% 33 15 68 3 4

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Paws For Thought (IRE)from Tom Dascombe 47 6 14 19 Sep 26

Presentandcounting (IRE) 37 8 9 4 Sep 26

Zamond (FR)from Colin Bowe 35 4 17 18 Oct 26

Could Be Trouble (IRE)from Barry J Fitzgerald 33 4 10 8 Oct 25

Grey Skies (IRE)from Liam Casey 30 6 11 15 May 26

Geromino (FR) 26 8 10 24 Feb 26

Cartonne (FR) 25 4 12 18 Oct 25

Finisk River (GB) 25 5 11 25 Jul 25

Present Fair (IRE)from Paul Cashman 24 3 6 8 Sep 26

Grain D'oudairies (FR) 24 7 11 16 May 26

Richmond Lake (IRE)from Eugene M O'Sullivan 24 5 11 14 Feb 26

Guillaume (IRE) 24 1 9 28 Nov 25

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 348 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 13 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 19 arrived from another yard in our archive; 41 had their first archived run for this yard.

5 have since run for another yard; 55 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

2 from 14

Only 14 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

13151712151415211491312

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderBrian Hughes

41% of all rides
19% SR · A/E 0.97

RiderRWSR£1

Brian Hughes 1,155 219 19% −265.91

Theo Gillard 806 83 10.3% −141.99

Peter Kavanagh 190 22 11.6% −81.47

Charlie Maggs 170 21 12.4% +11.83

William Maggs 148 18 12.2% −29.66

Abbie McCain 89 8 9% −10.67

Paul Mulrennan 38 2 5.3% −16.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

1,833

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£17.1m

Prize money

2012

Best season · 169 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

BallaBriggs (IRE) — John Smith's Grand National Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) Aintree · Apr 2011 · Class 1

£535,135

Overturn (IRE) — Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap (grade A) Galway · Jul 2010 · Grade A

£150,500

Overturn (IRE) — John Smith's Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Newcastle · Jun 2010 · Class 2

£107,888

Notable horses

Presentandcounting (IRE) Geromino (FR) Overturn (IRE) Minella Trump (IRE) Dear Sire (FR) Ubaltique (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Doyen (IRE) 21.1% · 24–114

Progeny have won 11.5% of 7,349 runs since 2008 (605 horses).

Presenting (GB) 14.9% · 17–114

Progeny have won 11% of 20,049 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Soldier of Fortune (IRE) 17.1% · 14–82

Progeny have won 11.4% of 5,815 runs since 2008 (679 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 336. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.2% from 249.

Yeats (IRE) 6.4% · 5–78

Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,807 runs since 2008 (704 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 203. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.3% from 816.

Milan (GB) 23.4% · 18–77

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,848 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).

Cloudings (IRE) 15.2% · 10–66

Progeny have won 10.5% of 3,882 runs since 2008 (309 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 14.6% from 410. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.5% from 815.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 12,137 · newest first

The latest 50 of 12,137 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 19 April 2005 to 18 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

18 Oct 26 Sedgefield Zamond (FR)J: Harry Brown Vickers Bookmakers Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20f · Good · 8 ran 4th 2/1F

17 Oct 26 Stratford Roarin' Success (GB)J: Theo Gillard Tracey- Ann Hen Day To Remember Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 16.5f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 7/1

17 Oct 26 Catterick Red Demon (IRE)J: Paul Mulrennan EBF "Confined" Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D With No More Than Three Runs) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Good · 7 ran 5th 20/1

16 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Bleu D'enfer (FR)J: Harry Brown Thomas And Sonny Crilly Plant Hire Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 5 ran 1st 11/4

16 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Static (FR)J: Theo Gillard D&M Groundworks Handicap Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 2 · 20f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 7/1

16 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Camarrate (IRE)J: Theo Gillard Insurance Connections Best Bet Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 6/1

16 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Supreme George (IRE)J: Theo Gillard British EBF 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle Race (Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 9/1

13 Oct 26 Hereford Bombus Pascuorum (IRE)J: Harry Brown Hereford Halloween Family Raceday 26th October Open Maiden National Hunt Flat Race (Category 3 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good To Firm · 4 ran 1st 5/1

13 Oct 26 Leicester Moonlight Melody (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan Join Racing TV Now Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good To Soft · 18 ran 16th 66/1

12 Oct 26 Worcester Jiair Madrik (FR)J: Theo Gillard CopyBet Overnight Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 23f · Good To Soft · 5 ran PU 5/2

12 Oct 26 Worcester Double Indemnity (IRE)J: Theo Gillard CopyBet Follow Us On X Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 5th 12/1

12 Oct 26 Worcester Ridin Solo (IRE)J: Theo Gillard CopyBet For Champions League Profit Boosts Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 23f · Good · 9 ran 3rd 13/2

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Lord (GER)J: Theo Gillard Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow 'four Years Old' Hurdle Race (a Limited Handicap) (gbb Race)Class 2 · 16f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 10th 18/1

09 Oct 26 Chepstow Eremenko (GB)J: Theo Gillard Alan Bushell Racing Remembers Alan Davies Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 5th 14/1

08 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Hellion (IRE)J: Silvestre De Sousa Get Raceday Ready Handicap StakesClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 12 ran 11th 28/1

08 Oct 26 Market Rasen Who's Glen (FR)J: Theo Gillard Tractor Drivers Go Free On 12th November Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good · 3 ran 3rd 5/2

08 Oct 26 Market Rasen Paddys Policy (IRE)J: William Maggs Summer Plate Ladies Day 2027 On Sale Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 16.5f · Good · 6 ran 5th 9/2

07 Oct 26 Sedgefield American Empire (IRE)J: William Maggs Winning Connections Conference Hire Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Sea Pigeon Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 17f · Good · 10 ran 9th 11/2

07 Oct 26 Worcester Talka (FR)J: Theo Gillard Copybet Supporting Uk Horse Racing Fillies' Juvenile Maiden Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 8 ran RO 50/1

05 Oct 26 Stratford Roarin' Success (GB)J: Theo Gillard Thanks To Our Raceday Team Past And Present Novices' Handicap Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 18.5f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 2nd 5/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Donald McCain's strike rate?: Donald McCain has won 395 of 2,845 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 13.9% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Donald McCain do best at?: Sedgefield by strike rate: 38 wins from 200 runners (19%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Donald McCain?: Brian Hughes, with 1,155 runners since 2022 — 41% of the total. That pairing has won 219 (19%).
Is Donald McCain in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 14 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Donald McCain's Fair A/E?: 0.96, from 2,834 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.