4:38 Pontefract
This Class 5 handicap over 2m1f27y at Pontefract on good ground brings together a field of seven modest performers, several of whom are dropping in class while others step up in trip for the first time. The KTB Fit ratings identify No More Bolero as the top-rated on 65, followed by An Bradan Feasa on 60, Digger One on 57 and Punxsutawney Phil on 46, with the remainder closely bunched between 41 and 44. Trainer and jockey combinations at the track add another layer, with several riders showing positive strike rates at Pontefract that could prove influential.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is expected to be strong, and the high-confidence assessment is that it could collapse late. Punxsutawney Phil and Pfingstberg are both inclined to make the running or race prominently, while Port George also tends to go forward. That setup should play into the hands of the hold-up performers, with No More Bolero, An Bradan Feasa and Merrijig all typically producing their efforts late, raising the key question of whether the leaders will fold enough to allow the closers through.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1No More Bolero KTB Selection65/100
No More Bolero is a modest performer who has shown bits of form this year but has been below par on his last two starts. He drops back in trip today having won at this distance in the past, while he also has a solid record on good ground with three wins from fourteen attempts. The seven-year-old is held up and usually produces his effort late, a run-style that looks well suited to the anticipated strong pace. Trainer James Owen has a 12% strike rate at Pontefract with an A/E of 0.96 from seventeen runs, and jockey Cieren Fallon boasts a 33% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.42 from eighteen rides. The pair combine with a trainer-jockey record of 23/125 (18%) and an A/E of 0.98, and the horse drops in class here.
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2An Bradan Feasa60/100
An Bradan Feasa is a modest performer who arrives in solid nick with four seconds from his last five starts. He steps up in trip having won two of his three previous attempts at this distance and he has shown he handles good ground with two wins from nine attempts. Like the selection he is held up and usually produces his effort late, which should be advantageous given the likely strong pace. Trainer Jack Jones has a 0% strike rate at Pontefract from a small sample of four runs, but claiming jockey Jake Dickson has a 60% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.73 from five rides. The six-year-old drops in class.
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3Digger One57/100
Digger One is a modest performer who has improved markedly this year with two wins in the last three starts. He steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question, though the pedigree gives some hope he will stay. The five-year-old typically settles in midfield. Trainer Keiran Burke has a 0% strike rate at Pontefract from one run, but jockey Josephine Gordon has a 21% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.55 from twenty-four rides. The trainer-jockey combination shows a record of 15/140 (11%) with an A/E of 1.36 and positive LSP of +£28.66. He has a 1/1 record on good ground.
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4Punxsutawney Phil46/100
Punxsutawney Phil is a limited sort who has been largely out of form for some time and showed only modest form when third on return at Redcar. He steps up in trip today having won over this distance in the past though his record on good ground is ordinary with one win from thirteen attempts. The nine-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace, which could see him involved early in what is likely to be a strong pace. Trainer Mark Walford has a modest 5% strike rate at Pontefract from ninety-five runs with an A/E of 0.54, while jockey Olivia Haines has no recorded rides here.
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5Merrijig44/100
Merrijig is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning. He has placed twice from three runs at Pontefract and handles good ground, though his trainer's modest 6% strike-rate here tempers expectations. The eight-year-old steps up in trip today having already won over this distance in the past and is usually held up.
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6Port George44/100
Port George is a modest performer who won a weak 1m6f handicap at this track on return last month after a string of placed efforts. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question. The trainer is 0-5 at the course while the 3lb claimer is a positive booking and the four-year-old tends to go forward.
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7Pfingstberg41/100
Pfingstberg is a modest performer who has shown mixed form across 17 starts, winning twice but finishing a well-beaten fifth on return from a long break last time. He steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question, while first-time headgear is now applied. The trainer has a 5% strike rate from 95 runs at Pontefract and the jockey records an 11% strike rate from 146 rides here.
KTB verdict
No More Bolero is the KTB Selection. He is a modest performer with bits of form this year, a previous win at today's distance, a solid record on good ground and a hold-up run style that should be favoured if the strong pace collapses late. Trainer and jockey both hold above-average records at Pontefract and he drops in class. His main dangers are An Bradan Feasa, who arrives in solid nick with four seconds from his last five starts and has won at this trip, and Digger One, who has improved markedly this year with two recent wins though the step up in trip poses a question.
KTB Selection No More Bolero
This is the narrative read of the 4:38 Pontefract. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Pontefract racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Pontefract results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Punxsutawney Phil and Pfingstberg tend to make the running or race on the pace, while Port George also tends to go forward.
Which runners are suited by the likely strong pace shape?
No More Bolero, An Bradan Feasa and Merrijig are usually held up and produce their effort late.
Which jockey has the strongest record at Pontefract in this field?
Jake Dickson has a 60% strike rate at Pontefract with an A/E of 1.73 from five rides.
How many horses are dropping in class?
No More Bolero and An Bradan Feasa are dropping in class.
Which horses are stepping up in trip for the first time?
Digger One, Port George and Pfingstberg are stepping up in trip for the first time.
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