4:42 Clonmel
This Clonmel Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m6f170y on good ground brings together a compact field of six where every runner is officially rated in the 93-119 bracket. The KTB Fit scores range from 63 down to 49, highlighting a race in which class and trip suitability could prove decisive rather than any standout standout. With the selection carrying an OR of 113 and several others on the same or higher marks, the contest looks competitive on paper and likely to be decided by how the steadily-run pace unfolds.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a natural leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy will pay dividends. With five of the six runners usually held up and producing their efforts late, the early fractions are likely to be modest and the race could turn into a sprint for the line from the home turn. The key question is whether any horse can quicken off this sort of tempo while carrying its handicap mark, or whether the one that settles closest to the pace without using too much energy will hold the advantage.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1St Lawrence's Well KTB Selection63/100
St Lawrence's Well is a smart performer who showed useful form when second at this trip earlier in his career. He has a placed effort on this track but was well held when last seen over further and now drops back in trip. The six-year-old is held up and usually produces his effort late. Declan Queally operates at a 12% strike rate at Clonmel from 131 runs, while Kevin Healy has a 50% strike rate at the track from only four rides. The horse has been placed once from two starts on good ground without winning.
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2Louiescall55/100
Louiescall is a smart performer who arrives in good order after a recent win and has solid placed form on his card. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him while the trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Clonmel from 111 runs offers little encouragement. The five-year-old is held up and usually produces his effort late. He has a win and five places from eight starts on good ground. Daniel King has a 10% strike rate at the venue from 73 rides.
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3Kashchei54/100
Kashchei is a smart performer who showed his best when winning two of his last three starts. He has already placed on good ground and has solid recent form but was well held on his only previous try at this track. The six-year-old is held up and usually produces his effort late. Cian Collins is operating at a low 2% strike rate here from 48 runs, and Alan O'Sullivan has a 0% strike rate at Clonmel from 28 rides. He has two wins and four places from eight starts on good ground.
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4Le Questionnaire54/100
Le Questionnaire is a useful performer who has run to a similar level in three starts this year without looking like winning any of them. He drops back from three miles today for the first time, which asks a fresh question, and first-time headgear is now tried. The five-year-old is held up and usually produces his effort late. Gordon Elliott has a solid 19% strike rate at Clonmel from 515 runs, while Sam Ewing has a 16% strike rate at the track from 44 rides. The horse has had one run on good ground without winning or placing.
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5Hopeful Hero52/100
Hopeful Hero is a smart performer with solid recent form including a win and several placed efforts from 15 starts. He steps up in trip today for the first time having last run over 2m so that will be an unknown. The trainer has a modest 5% strike rate from 149 runs at Clonmel and the horse makes its debut here.
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6Star Cave49/100
Star Cave is a useful performer with placed efforts on his last two starts and remains lightly raced after just three career runs. He drops back in trip today to an untried 2m6f which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has a solid 15% strike rate from 53 runs at Clonmel.
KTB verdict
St Lawrence's Well is the KTB Selection. He showed useful form when second at this trip earlier in his career, has a placed effort on this track, and now drops back to a more suitable distance after being well held over further last time. The combination of his ability, the trainer's local record and the jockey's excellent course strike rate make him the one to beat in a steadily-run race. His main dangers are Louiescall, who arrives in good order after a recent win, Kashchei, who has won two of his last three, and Le Questionnaire, who brings the strongest trainer record at the venue even if first-time headgear is now required.
KTB Selection St Lawrence's Well
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:05 UTC, 1 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Hopeful Hero | 5/1 | BoyleSports |
This is the narrative read of the 4:42 Clonmel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Clonmel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Clonmel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping back in trip after being well held over further on its most recent start?
St Lawrence's Well, who has a placed effort on this track and showed useful form when second at this trip earlier in his career.
Which runner is stepping up markedly in trip after a recent win?
Louiescall, who has solid placed form on his card and a win and five places from eight starts on good ground.
Who is wearing first-time headgear in this race?
Le Questionnaire, who has run to a similar level in three starts this year and drops back from three miles today.
Which horse is making its debut at Clonmel while stepping up in trip for the first time?
Hopeful Hero, who has solid recent form including a win and several placed efforts from 15 starts.
Which runner remains lightly raced with only three career starts and is dropping back in trip to an untried 2m6f?
Star Cave, who has placed efforts on his last two starts.
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