What is David Harry Kelly's strike rate?

David Harry Kelly has won 42 of 530 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7.9% (as at 25 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does David Harry Kelly do best at?

Killarney by strike rate: 6 wins from 38 runners (15.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for David Harry Kelly?

Cian Quirke, with 122 runners since 2022 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 12 (9.8%).

Is David Harry Kelly in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 6 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is David Harry Kelly's Fair A/E?

1.02, from 530 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

David Harry Kelly

530 runners in the last 5 seasons · 85 individual horses

As at 25 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 3 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2012→)

from 1 Jan 2022

42–530

Wins / Runs

7.9%

Strike rate

n=530

131 (25%)

Placed

1.02

Fair A/E

n=530 · 0.82 incl. margin

−130.36

£1 level stake

n=530 at SP · −24.6%

£604k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11.5%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 110 runners a season, winning with 8% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.02). Horses in first-time headgear strike at 10% (31 runs, true-first definition).

Deterministic profile computed from 530 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 25 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Apr–May Cian Quirke: 9.8% from 122 Claiming riders: 8.5%

The read

The record is strongest at Killarney (15.8%, n=38) and Tramore (12.5%, n=40) — all clear of the yard's 7.9% baseline. It is weakest at Cork (3.8% over 52 runners) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. Debutants struggle at 3.6% (n=55, Fair A/E 0.83). Cian Quirke rides 23% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (9.8%, A/E 1.19) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Galway Shopping Centre Handicap Hurdle at Galway (Aug 2019, £70,800). Seasonally, the yard fires Apr–May.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.9% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

7.1%−0.8

n=99 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −22.50

New recruits · first run for the yard

17.4%+9.5

n=23 · A/E 3.28 · £1 +36.50

Debutants · first career start

3.6%−4.3

n=55 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −34.50

First-time headgear · true-first definition

9.7%+1.8

n=31 · A/E 1.73 · £1 −12.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

8.3%+0.4

n=12 · A/E 1.66 · £1 +14.00

When favourite

45.5%

n=22 · A/E 1.44 · £1 +2.89

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

8.5%+0.6

n=234 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −30.42

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

8.3%+0.4

n=12 · A/E 1.85 · £1 −7.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Brian Hayes 22.2% vs 7.9% · n=36

At Killarney 15.8% vs 7.9% · n=38

With Sean Flanagan 2.3% vs 7.9% · n=44

With debutants 3.6% vs 7.9% · n=55

At Tramore 12.5% vs 7.9% · n=40

At Cork 3.8% vs 7.9% · n=52

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 328 30 9.1% −29.61

Flat 90 4 4.4% −46.50

NH Flat 60 5 8.3% −18.00

Chase 52 3 5.8% −36.25

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 189 17 9% −36.96

Soft 155 9 5.8% −53.25

Good to Soft 106 12 11.3% +19.10

Heavy 66 4 6.1% −45.25

Standard (AW) 9 0 0% −9.00

Good to Firm 5 0 0% −5.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Cork 52 2 3.8% −45.70

Punchestown 41 3 7.3% −3.43

Tramore 40 5 12.5% −6.62

Limerick 38 3 7.9% −18.50

Killarney 38 6 15.8% +0.00

Wexford 37 2 5.4% −15.25

Clonmel 32 2 6.3% −18.00

Fairyhouse 29 3 10.3% +2.86

Kilbeggan 25 4 16% +50.53

Listowel 24 0 0% −24.00

Galway 20 0 0% −20.00

Ballinrobe 20 2 10% +1.00

Naas 18 4 22.2% +35.25

Thurles 18 1 5.6% −9.50

Tipperary 16 2 12.5% +2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 12 1 8.3% −7.00

Class 5 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 30 10 33.3% 1.17 −5.11

2nd–3rd fav 96 11 11.5% 0.78 −37.75

4th–6th fav 180 13 7.2% 1.02 −64.50

7th+ in betting 224 8 3.6% 1.36 −23.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

86.3% completed · 380 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 52 82.7% 2 1 6 0 0

Hurdle 328 86.9% 9 6 25 1 2

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Corkbeg (IRE) 31 2 6 28 Aug 26

Hard Target (IRE) 29 1 9 25 Oct 25

Nelson Muntz (IRE) 28 2 9 2 Oct 26

Walk In Time (IRE) 25 1 3 6 Aug 25

Louiescall (IRE)from Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero 22 2 9 1 Oct 26

Glen Kiln (IRE)from Michael J Bowe 17 4 7 10 Oct 26

Spring Collection (GB) 16 1 3 25 Aug 24

Faceman (IRE) 15 3 7 10 Jul 26

Misty's Gift (IRE) 15 0 4 17 Sep 23

Lily's Choice (IRE)from W P Mullins 13 0 1 6 Oct 25

Kiln Time (IRE)from Michael J Bowe 13 2 4 18 Jul 25

Tramps Like Us (IRE) 13 0 2 18 Jul 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 85 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 17 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from W P Mullins (3) and Michael J Bowe (2); 43 had their first archived run for this yard.

7 have since run for another yard; 53 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 6

Only 6 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

850914091061059

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderCian Quirke

23% of all rides
9.8% SR · A/E 1.19

RiderRWSR£1

Cian Quirke 122 12 9.8% +12.86

Sean Flanagan 44 1 2.3% −39.50

Brian Hayes 36 8 22.2% +64.95

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2012→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.48m

Prize money

2026

Best season · 15 wins

Great Trango (IRE) — Galway Shopping Centre Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) Galway · Aug 2019 · Grade B

£70,800

Montagne D'argent (IRE) — Holden Plant Rentals Shamrock Handicap Chase (Grade B) Gowran Park · Mar 2021 · Grade B

£23,600

Glen Kiln (IRE) — Naas Racecourse Business Club Limestone Lad Hurdle (Grade 3) Naas · Jan 2026 · Grade 3

£22,125

Notable horses

Railway Zira (IRE) Glen Kiln (IRE) Que Pasa (IRE) Great Trango (IRE) Lagostovegas (IRE) The Housekeeper (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Walk In The Park (IRE) 7% · 3–43

Progeny have won 13.3% of 6,958 runs since 2008 (691 horses).

Milan (GB) 6.5% · 2–31

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,854 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).

Conduit (IRE) 3.4% · 1–29

Progeny have won 6.2% of 403 runs since 2008 (57 horses).

Mount Nelson (GB) 7.1% · 2–28

Progeny have won 9.9% of 6,261 runs since 2008 (538 horses).

Soldier's Call (GB) 9.1% · 2–22

Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,110 runs since 2008 (217 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.1% from 198. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 4.1% from 245.

Shirocco (GER) 5% · 1–20

Progeny have won 11.2% of 9,171 runs since 2008 (921 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.4% from 203.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 25 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,705 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,705 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 25 May 2012 to 22 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

22 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Roccabaker (IRE)J: Danny Gilligan Clonmel Oil Chase Day November 5th Handicap Steeplechase21f · Good · 15 ran 5th 10/1

22 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Beyond Forgiveness (IRE)J: Danny Gilligan Mahon Falls Novice Handicap Hurdle20f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 2nd 18/1

14 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Hutton Star (IRE)J: Mr P A King Matchbook €50,000 Graduation Series Flat Race16.5f · Good · 11 ran 4th 14/1

13 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Beyond Forgiveness (IRE)J: Cian Quirke William Hill Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle16f · Good · 11 ran 7th 22/1

12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Vervain (IRE)J: W. J. Lee Thank You For Your Support Handicap12f · Soft · 16 ran 16th 14/1

12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Spider Star (IRE)J: Adam Browne-Souza Roscommon Racecourse (C & G) Maiden7.5f · Soft · 11 ran 6th 125/1

10 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Glen Kiln (IRE)J: Brian Hayes Winter Festival Early Bird Tickets On Sale Now Beginners Steeplechase16.5f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 4/9F

08 Oct 26 Tramore (IRE) Roll It Roisin (IRE)J: Cian Quirke www.tramoreraces.ie Maiden Hurdle16f · Yielding · 8 ran 5th 16/1

05 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Airds Moss (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Winter Festival Tickets On Sale Now Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 10 ran 5th 3/1F

05 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) State Pension (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com (C & G) Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 11 ran 1st 4/11F

04 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Footstepstoglory (IRE)J: Daniel King Gortnavogue Ltd. T/A Seamus Weldon Handicap Hurdle17f · Good · 16 ran 1st 5/1

04 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Mastertown Miss (IRE)J: Phillip Enright Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle17f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 7/2

02 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Nelson Muntz (IRE)J: Phillip Enright Paddy Monaghan 90th Birthday Handicap Hurdle20f · Good · 14 ran 1st 9/2

01 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Louiescall (IRE)J: Daniel King Clonmel Novice Handicap Hurdle23f · Good · 6 ran 6th 11/4

01 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Princess Felicia (IRE)J: Peter Smithers Derrinlaur Mares Handicap Hurdle19.5f · Good · 11 ran 4th 11/2

01 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Nelson Muntz (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Clonmel Handicap Hurdle17f · Good · 12 ran 4th 5/1

28 Sep 26 Roscommon (IRE) Femme Magnifique (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Ballymore Group Irish EBF Kilbegnet Novice Steeplechase16.5f · Yielding · 4 ran 2nd 7/4

27 Sep 26 Curragh (IRE) Spider Star (IRE)J: Adam Browne-Souza Celebrating County Kildare And Lexington Twinning Maiden6f · Heavy · 11 ran 5th 150/1

26 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Roll It Roisin (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Kathleen Walsh Memorial Handicap Hurdle22f · Good To Yielding · 17 ran 15th 50/1

25 Sep 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Vervain (IRE)J: Colin Keane Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Handicap12f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 7/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is David Harry Kelly's strike rate?: David Harry Kelly has won 42 of 530 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7.9% (as at 25 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does David Harry Kelly do best at?: Killarney by strike rate: 6 wins from 38 runners (15.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for David Harry Kelly?: Cian Quirke, with 122 runners since 2022 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 12 (9.8%).
Is David Harry Kelly in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 6 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is David Harry Kelly's Fair A/E?: 1.02, from 530 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.