Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.81). With a claiming rider up the record reads 7% (60 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 126 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 21 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 6.7%
The read
The yard also reads well in Hurdle races (9.8%, n=41) and off a 15-30-day break (9.8%, n=41). The market has consistently overbet the yard in Flat races: Fair A/E 0.69 across 67 runners (3% strike, −30.75 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 21 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes at Ascot (Oct 2014, £207,856). The stable star of the record: Gordon Lord Byron (IRE) — 15 wins from 96 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−4.8
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.8
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.8
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.8
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.8
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
0%
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
6.7%+1.9
n=60 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −2.17
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.8
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Hurdle races9.8% vs 4.8% · n=41
Off a 15-30-day break9.8% vs 4.8% · n=41
On Soft going7% vs 4.8% · n=43
In Flat races3% vs 4.8% · n=67 · A/E 0.69
With a new jockey booking3.1% vs 4.8% · n=65 · A/E 0.82
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat6723%−30.75
Hurdle4149.8%−12.67
NH Flat1600%−16.00
Chase200%−2.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft4337%+8.33
Good4124.9%−30.00
Good to Soft2300%−23.00
Heavy1317.7%−10.75
Standard (AW)400%−4.00
Good to Firm200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Cork1119.1%−6.67
Navan10220%+37.00
Roscommon900%−9.00
Killarney9111.1%−6.75
Ballinrobe800%−8.00
Sligo700%−7.00
Gowran Park700%−7.00
Fairyhouse600%−6.00
Limerick600%−6.00
Galway600%−6.00
Thurles600%−6.00
Curragh600%−6.00
Tipperary500%−5.00
Punchestown400%−4.00
Dundalk (AW)400%−4.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1700%−7.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite500%0.00−5.00
2nd–3rd fav12325%1.46−0.92
4th–6th fav3026.7%0.83−10.50
7th+ in betting7911.3%0.52−45.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m3026.7%+17.00
1m2f – 1m4f2713.7%−24.75
2m1f – 2m4f2129.5%−10.17
2m5f – 3m1616.3%−11.50
6f – 7f1600%−16.00
1m – 1m1f1500%−15.00
Over 3m100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20222400%−24.00
20231800%−18.00
20242827.1%−12.75
20253525.7%+3.33
20262129.5%−10.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps7334.1%−30.17
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners4924.1%−8.50
11-13 runners2600%−26.00
17+ runners2015%−7.00
8-10 runners2015%−15.67
5-7 runners10220%−3.25
2-4 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 20 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 20 horses listed, 5 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Gary & Josh Moore (2); 15 had their first archived run for this yard.
5 have since run for another yard, most often for Maike Magnussen (4); 15 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
170000046013140
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Gordon Lord Byron (IRE) — Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 2) Ascot · Oct 2014 · Group 2
£207,856
Gordon Lord Byron (IRE) — Qatar Prix de la Foret (3yo+) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · Oct 2012 · Group 1
£142,850
Gordon Lord Byron (IRE) — Betfred Sprint Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Haydock · Sep 2013 · Group 1
Progeny have won 8.3% of 2,632 runs since 2008 (160 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 11.7% from 179. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 11.5% from 253.
Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,538 runs since 2008 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 252.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 2,601 · newest first
The latest 50 of 2,601 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 9 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is T Hogan's strike rate?
T Hogan has won 6 of 126 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 4.8% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is T Hogan in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is T Hogan's Fair A/E?
0.81, from 126 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
T Hogan·SR 4.8%·A/E 0.81
KTB
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