Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 14.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
16.7%+2.4
n=12 · A/E 1.89 · £1 +3.20
Debutants · first career start
0%−14.3
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
When favourite
50%
n=4 · A/E 1.95 · £1 +1.40
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−14.3
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−14.3
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 14.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good to Soft15213.3%+6.50
Standard (AW)11218.2%+3.70
Soft700%−7.00
Heavy5240%+0.40
Good400%−4.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Longchamp (FR)16318.8%+7.90
Chantilly (FR)10110%−1.50
Saint-Cloud (FR)9111.1%−6.00
Deauville (FR)6116.7%+0.20
Nancy (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite4250%1.95+1.40
2nd–3rd fav5120%1.38+1.20
4th–6th fav15320%2.63+15.00
7th+ in betting1800%0.00−18.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m – 1m1f2314.3%−14.50
1m2f – 1m4f14428.6%+12.90
6f – 7f3133.3%+3.20
1m5f – 2m200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202214321.4%+13.70
202312325%+1.90
20241300%−13.00
2025300%−3.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1616.3%−7.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners16212.5%+5.00
14-16 runners1616.3%−7.50
8-10 runners5120%+1.70
5-7 runners4250%+1.40
17+ runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 11 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 11 horses listed, 2 arrived from another yard in our archive; 9 had their first archived run for this yard.
1 has since run for another yard; 10 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
··01125170252500·
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Mr Gallivanter (IRE) — Longines Grand Handicap de la Fete Nationale (Handicap) (4yo+) (Turf) Saint-Cloud (FR) · Jul 2016
£24,191
Sir Oscar (GER) — Prix De Montretout () (4yo+) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · May 2011 · Listed
£22,414
Escroc (FR) — Prix D'Argentan (Handicap) (3yo) (Fibresand) Deauville (FR) · Aug 2011
Progeny have won 9.1% of 5,679 runs since 2008 (528 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6% from 184.
Lord Of England (GER)57.1% · 4–7
Progeny have won 10.4% of 1,096 runs since 2008 (151 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 17.4% from 109. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.3% from 284. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7% from 142.
Invincible Spirit (IRE)0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,818 runs since 2008 (1,573 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 843.
Progeny have won 13.8% of 3,736 runs since 2008 (345 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 9.3% from 161. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.2% from 233.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 211 · newest first
The latest 50 of 211 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 19 May 2005 to 7 May 2025.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Dr A Bolte's strike rate?
Dr A Bolte has won 6 of 42 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 14.3% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Dr A Bolte's Fair A/E?
1.60, from 42 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Dr A Bolte·SR 14.3%·A/E 1.60
KTB
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