Bauyrzhan Murzabayev
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 90 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 12% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.03). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 18% (50 rides).
The record is strongest at Deauville (FR) (15.1%, n=73), clear of the rider's 11.8% baseline. It is weakest at Longchamp (FR) (8.5% over 129 rides) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 18% (n=50, Fair A/E 0.96), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 6.8% (n=161, Fair A/E 0.97). The market has consistently overbet in Group and Graded company the record: 9.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.79 and −61.70 to a £1 stake over 123 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. A Fabre supplies 31% of the rides and beats the rider's average (20% vs 11.8%, A/E 1.14) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well off a 61-180-day break (16.5%, n=85) and over 6f – 7f (15.9%, n=126). 13 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Classic at Ascot (Aug 2024, £39,344). Seasonally, the rider fires Apr–May.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 11.8% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2015→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 534 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 534 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 12 March 2015 to 8 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Bauyrzhan Murzabayev's strike rate?
- Bauyrzhan Murzabayev has won 55 of 465 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 11.8% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Bauyrzhan Murzabayev do best at?
- Deauville (FR) by strike rate: 11 wins from 73 rides (15.1%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Bauyrzhan Murzabayev ride most for?
- A Fabre, with 145 rides since 2022 — 31% of the total. That pairing has won 29 (20%).
- Is Bauyrzhan Murzabayev in form?
- Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 1 ride, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is Bauyrzhan Murzabayev's Fair A/E?
- 1.03, from 464 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.